Cobra's Market View

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Triangle, but bulls tried breakout far more than bears trying on the downside so the bias is a little bit up.

The market can always go up (stupidly) but where is the big up day coming from? QE announcement? lol QT just started and liquidity is being pulled from the financial system every day. It's not a joke and bulls should really not expect much.

cletus wrote:The market can always go up (stupidly) but where is the big up day coming from? QE announcement? lol QT just started and liquidity is being pulled from the financial system every day. It's not a joke and bulls should really not expect much.

.... The big up day ( or down day!) will come from inflation data released tomorrow! The streets main concern seems to be rising interest rates and possible recession. These are as a result of inflation at 40 year highs, so i would think tomorrows release may be critical. (imho)

Higher low? Anyway, so far looks like a range day.

koolblue wrote:

cletus wrote:The market can always go up (stupidly) but where is the big up day coming from? QE announcement? lol QT just started and liquidity is being pulled from the financial system every day. It's not a joke and bulls should really not expect much.

.... The big up day ( or down day!) will come from inflation data released tomorrow! The streets main concern seems to be rising interest rates and possible recession. These are as a result of inflation at 40 year highs, so i would think tomorrows release may be critical. (imho)

Anything over 2% means more rate hikes. Yes, inflation y/y will tame a bit, but it won't be anything huge. Eventually a recession will bring down inflation, but that won't be good for stocks, either. I don't see a winning scenario here, and bulls should really wait for a QE announcement. I don't think markets can rally much without one. This hope about inflation sounds like the "slope of hope" you find in bear markets.

My SPY narrative (opinion not fact) is that Market Makers are allowing orders (bets) to be entered on both sides of our current consolidation and they intend to trigger both sides to get the burst of volume they need to move the market in their favor. The longer the consolidation takes, the more orders are placed and therefore they have huge clusters of orders (liquidity) to move the market.

You can see they have played this archetypical scenario repeatedly since January. They keep doing the same playbook and people don’t seem to notice.

Look at how the market moved on 5/17. There was a tiny consolidation prior to 5/17 and the move on 5/17 triggered all those buy orders and sell stops. Then everyone gets on the wrong side of the market on 5/18 and the MMs create a burst of volatility to the downside. There is a pause on 5/19 but the candle shows selling pressure and people remain short and probably place more short orders. On 5/20, more shorts are triggered. Supply is created and bought for the upside move. Market Makers were in 5/20/22. Safe entry to the upside was above just $397.03.

I think there will be a move to the downside eventually because there still hasn’t been a big capitulation and that’s what smart money wants.

This is fiction and opinion and I could be totally wrong.

Adding V (Visa, red dash) to the Consumer Demand Chart shows that since early May, credit cards have been the biggest driver of consumer demand.
[Recall that we are still a 70%++ consumption society]
Daily

Double bottom?

prepare for the bucking bronco
CPI (all know high but maybe steady/not so bad as last time) Fed (must QT at least short term) , earnings (big ?) peak gas into july 4, then should abate cyclically. best guess bears win short term (3900ish or 3600ish for low my only ?) , bulls may rise into the elections (powell biden agreement). imho.

Bounced today right at the bottom of the range. So good news tomorrow and right back up to the top, or bad news and the whole thing fall apart?

The pullback was a typical range day behavior, now testing the range low, let's see whether the low will hold or not. At certain point there'd be a breakout or breakdown.

watch trannies and junk, leading , a short term indices dip approaching, but so far no lower lows on trannies/junk. shall see how 4000 holds up on sp

I think recent support just broke

Youre telling me! I got crushed for 7 points.Ugh...

I wonder if bulls have seen the error of their ways, yet?