Cobra's Market View

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Don't know what pattern it is, maybe need a 3 push down to make a bottom pattern?

Im really sticking my neck out with these posts and comments, but so what! I dont really care much about the long term as im retired and have no stock holdings, just cash and real estate. And note that im not always right.. for instance, remeber the 4203 high? I would have sworn that we would hit my fib at 4215 and we never did!!! And there were no fibs near it, so be forewarned. lol

ECB to meet about financial markets - not unsurprising. The central banks cannot even tolerate the slightest drops in markets before they think about stimulus, even with sky high inflation. They have absolutely no will power. Expect the same from the Fed. The end of QT before it barely even began?

Cletus notes:

1) Today might be a big up day.

2) Perhaps we need a negative divergence, so todays big up should be sold until NYMO drops while the SPX forms a new low and NYMO does not form a new low (positive divergence). It’s a possibility but not something long term investors should worry about. I do own some QQQ calls I might consider selling into strength today.

I sold my QQQ calls into the strength just now. I am not sure if the high is in for today, only that the initial bounce has some likelihood of being sold and going to new lows on all indices. With options, you cannot afford such a big drop in terms of time or price. Let's assume it will happen and buy again lower, and if not, look for a re-entry point long call options.

The reason I sold: Quite a bit of professional activity on the NQ contract into this price area this morning. Pretty high chance they are taking profits/getting short. Either way, it's wait and see for now. My longer term holdings I bought the last 2 days, I will not touch.

To anyone who might have taken that last scalp(sell) at 3798(3797.75 high so far), I wouldn't overstay your welcome take your 10-12 points and watch...I doubt we go much lower than 3975-77 cause we are still on a bullish mode

koolblue1413 wrote:To anyone who might have taken that last scalp(sell) at 3798(3797.75 high so far), I wouldn't overstay your welcome take your 10-12 points and watch...I doubt we go much lower than 3975-77 cause we are still on a bullish mode

Bulls are defending. Amazing how media used to prep markets. Expecting the Fed to stay the course they promised (.50 per month). ST bullish as media scarin all with 1bp yea right...later summer earnings mid july be most imp., with co. better be sayin "worst behind us"...better...

Yup....well we went farther than expected but I still took out almost 20 points (3796.50-3777.50) on that short scalp...1,3,and 5 min charts now negative but 30 and 60 min still positive...earlier I said 10_12 points but I meant 20! Sorry

I said 3775..Mr Gann said 3766.75.. Gann 1, Kool 0...sigh!

Further down from here then it could be a downtrend day. Key time.

Yeah,I agree. The15 mi is a whisker away from a dm sell. U sually that would imply another 20 points down so bulls be carefully! Usually a 5 min signal yield s 5-10 points ...a 15 min 20 or so and the 30 min 50 or more. That's why you need indicators. (Dm signals only valid if the red or blue line is above zero. If below, they still work but yield much less and are easily reversed.. ok, I'll shut up now and watch till Fed time..(2:00pm eastern)

Rob Hanna
How SPY has performed from 2pm to 4pm on Fed Days in a bear market (when SPY is below 200ma)
https://quantifiableedges.com/fed-days- ... owntrends/

6/15 Near consensus expectation is that the Fed will hike rates by 0.75 basis points.

"If less than that the market will be down 400 points" [Najarian]

Rob Hanna
How SPY has performed from 2pm to 4pm on Fed Days in a bear market (when SPY is below 200ma)
https://quantifiableedges.com/fed-days- ... owntrends/

This was a very useful post - thanks.

jaguar6992 wrote:Rob Hanna
How SPY has performed from 2pm to 4pm on Fed Days in a bear market (when SPY is below 200ma)
https://quantifiableedges.com/fed-days- ... owntrends/

This was a very useful post - thanks.