Cobra's Market View

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Gap down below Friday's low so the gap might not be filled, I'm not sure because on the Global ES, clearly is on the support, I don't think it would break down immediately even it does, chances the break won't hold, because bears simply traveled too long to break the support therefore they need take a breath here at least. The best pattern bears can hope is a consolidation here.

Guys, help! I cannot believe even I have better readings, still I'm behind. Your follow and vote and if you cannot follow or vote at least a click is needed, thanks. I need this stimulus package in order to comment actively during the regular trading hours, so help me is also help you. Please click here to vote, follow or at least a click: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

I do it once a day . should I do it more ? I dont mind at all

Interesting, you have more followers and votes but you are second, how could this be??
Followers Votes
Above the Green Line *** 1 240 579

Cobra's Market View *** 2 262 868

grachu wrote:I do it once a day . should I do it more ? I dont mind at all

once is enough. thanks.

TraderJoe wrote:Interesting, you have more followers and votes but you are second, how could this be??
Followers Votes
Above the Green Line *** 1 240 579

Cobra's Market View *** 2 262 868

they might have more visits. For me, because I posted all the images directly in my report, so most people don't need click there to see my charts, therefore I don't believe I have many visits.

I bet you are 100% correct on that. You need more VISITS (HITS).

OK ALL, let's hit him with both hands!!!!

The DAX has a double bottom.

you may read DAX as H&S Top, but I prefer a little lower low then rebound, so chances are it might not be H&S Top. I don't mean bullish, I just mean I don't read it as H&S Top, even it looks like so (and I do hope so, just what I hope usually is not true, so forecasting the stock market is somewhat easy: I just tell you exactly the opposite what I'm hoping for. ).

the open. a little too stretched, so we might see a rebound first.

AAPL update. I see rebound coming.

I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss.

Checking the daily:

how about biggest drawdown from top to bottom?

Cobra wrote:I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss.

How about volatility of the performance?

toplight wrote:how about biggest drawdown from top to bottom?

draw down isn't a problem. You have 20*ATR(10) which to SPY is about 30% stop loss. it's really rare for SPY to drop 30%, right?

q2model wrote:

Cobra wrote:I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss.

How about volatility of the performance?

any easy way to measure this?

Cobra wrote:

q2model wrote:

Cobra wrote:I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss.

How about volatility of the performance?

any easy way to measure this?

Simply look at the variance of the return. Then you can normalize it against the S&P and you are looking at Beta and Alpha measures of performance.

also the question is how to measure the performance.

The simplest way is you invest 10K, if at the end you get 6K, so your performance is 60%, right? But the question is, your 60% in 5 years or in 1 year, so time should be the factor, correct? Therefore in order to compare the performance, I need convert all the return to yearly based, then add them together, correct? The highest return one it the best performance one, correct?

So in this case, you got 60% in 5 years, but I got 15% in 1 year, 1 year performance 15% vs 60% / 5 = 12%, so apparently the 15% 1 year is better, correct?

Cobra wrote:I need a help:

I designed a system, the back test shows, the bigger the stop loss, the higher the winning rate and for the 10K invested, the bigger stop loss even gets better performance, so it seems the bigger stop loss is not a problem here. However the stop loss reads ridiculous to me, if you think 6*ATR(10) is acceptable, how about 20*ATR(10)? Anyone has better idea to check besides the winning rate, the performance, anything else I can add to judge which parameter is the best to use? I really don't want to use a system with 20*ATR(10) as stop loss.

everybody seems to be focusing on variance and standard deviation (which i don't think is wrong), but the first thought that came into my head is entry. improving the entry trade seems like it may help with the wide stop loss issue.