Cobra's Market View

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Lower high or not, wait and see.

Cletus open notes:

1) Unlikely bears find relief as we inch closer to the 4th of July holiday
2) Bias is up
3) Gap remains unfilled at 397 on SPY, so not thinking about any profit taking or short positions yet
4) The notion of a lower high here is, of course, absurd

Not overbought enough to enter the sell the rip even with this much up. Future is at 2x top. sell pressure is high atm.

Failed breakout? cash index.

/ES if we trade below 3900 this time the turn around Tuesday is in play.

The NYMO cycle is UP.
Notably, we are back in the upper Turn Zone intraday.
The recent moves between Oscillator extremes have been quite a ride. Got Liquidity?
There is not much of an edge to NYMO hitting the upper Turn Zone. It just calls for attention to market character.
Sometimes you get reversal. Sometimes you get consolidation. Sometimes you get bull stampede. Let's see what happens in coming days.
I would not be surprised to see a corrective NYMO pullback to the zero line.

We now have three open down gaps and quite a stack of open up gaps.
As noted last week, the trade below the lower keltner (6/16-6/21) offered edge for a trip to the middle keltner and maybe beyond.
Given NYMO in the upper Turn Zone, the trip may not be a straight line.
Given yesterday's post, the middle keltner and the area above it may be stiff resistance if this is a bear market rally. We shall see.

I am long SPX and R2K. The SPX position is a runner while the R2K position is still at risk.

Hit 61.8%, buy dip intraday, bulls will not want to fail this buy.

No fear, complacency, my view on this is calm before the storm. once the fear kicks in it will not be slow selling pressure. $SKEW is low, no one hedge. dangerous, many hedge funds will go belly up.

The blue line might not hold if touched. However if indeed breakdown, there're chances it's a classic breakdown then reverses up.

Looking down 3861 /ES

ES daily. A pause, after a 6-day move up. Sitting on the EMA 20.

ES 60 minutes. Testing down beneath S1, out of trading range.

SPY 5 minutes. Price action. Down. Down. And down since the open.

Valid breakdown, this bear shall have legs.

3861, coffee anyone?

Dow 30. With the leaders UNH, TRV and DIS. Also, frequent flyer, both leading and lagging, BA, with the leaders.

Trailing are NKE, CRM and HD.

Gap up or Gap down? pick your poison.......Gap-ville will continue in days ahead.

Alternatives. Lots of reversals intraday. USO and UUP up. IAU down a bit.