Cobra's Market View

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Maybe a triangle here so bias is a little bit down.

One other note of caution.If by some chance we close anywhere near the 3691 level it would make the weekly candle extremely negative , And since the daily is still on a sell, it is at least possible. In any case, so far the three day window for bulls to rally hard is : Day one ....down!

Inside day. internals are back to bearish, bulls need to have a daily HH from yesterday just to stay relevant.

Cletus open:

1) 1 of 3 "double gaps" has now filled with at least 1 at 397 left to fill, there is also one down at the lows according to stockcharts
2) Holiday seasonality is normally bullish. That hasn't materialized but can at any moment.
3) Cycles point to an early morning rally at some point, so doesn't feel like the bears can trend so easily today
4) Interest rates are dropping hard which should provide tailwinds to tech stocks (cannot argue rising rates were bad and now falling rates are also bad)

Dropping in for a bit as I am not traveling today.
Macro picture has changed this week. Atlanta Fed GDP NOW model, as you saw, says recession. Micron says tech is done as expectation for gadget sales (laptops and phones) is falling hard. Interest rates down because market changed the Fed Funds future expecting less up and a much sooner reversal. I am waiting for this very controlled descent to turn into the sort of waterfall crash we had in the 2000 era.

Inside day, I treat it as range day for now. buy above 61.8%

Inside day you got to be fast. above 61.8% failed to hold now testing the lower 38.2% well, below that it will be very very very bearish.

My, admittedly simple VIX trading rules, just switched to buy dips from sell rallies, for the first time since March. (Blue ema line below Red )
https://schrts.co/yAesIaev

The range low might be in.

I think the expected 11:30 high may be in now. Next peak would be just before 1:00

Bulls see that higher low and they are buying calls at the moment
5m

Possible higher low.

ES daily. Slip sliding down again. Beneath the EMA 20. The bears showing their strength.

ES 60 minutes. In a wide base. All around the Pivot and the EMA 20.

SPY 5 minutes. Price action. Going nowhere, but lots of possible plays, depending on your scale.

Dow 30. Edge to the reds. MCD leading. INTC trailing.