09/14/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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The line below probably won't hold another test.

[Daniel]

Another excellent and timely quick-study from SentimenTrader..

On Tuesday every member of the Nasdaq 100 declined. In the past 25 years there were only 13 times this has occurred. Taking this as a buy signal for the NDX or QQQ, and holding for two weeks, the median gain upon sale would have been about +4%.

Only four of the purchases resulted in losses, and three of those came in a cluster in August 2011--around the height of the European debt crisis.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/09 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

Source: Bloomberg

Core PPI rose 7.3% YoY (considerably hotter than the +7.0% expected, but less than July's +7.6%)...

[Trades w 2 Cats]

PPI Cost of goods down, cost of services up up and away.
I think the last two years have changed the way people see work.

[Al_Dente]

"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway saw $9 billion wiped off its Apple stake on Tuesday - as the iPhone maker shed $154 billion of market value in a single day

[Cobra]

Double bottom or not, I prefer to see 2 consecutive strong bull bars. We had one, the current one doesn't look like a strong bull bar so far.

[Cobra]

2 consecutive good looking bull bars so now double bottom stands much better chances.

[Al_Dente]

Something else to worry about:
A 12:01 a.m. Friday deadline to agree to new work terms hangs in the balance, with a strike likely to cost the nation $2B in economic output per day if things go off the rails.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm2rxqjdw4E

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle is technically still DOWN.
We got a sharp rally from the Oversold Zone but only one positive close.
The model calls for two closes to declare a cycle change.
That said, NYMO is holding up pretty well after yesterday's bloodbath.
A rally from here could readily confirm an up cycle or we could see a strong positive divergence if price breaks the 9/06 low but NYMO doesn't.
So, despite bearish price action, under the surface things don't appear quite so bad.

When NYMO hit the Oversold Zone, an edge was set for price to move to the middle keltner band.
That has been satisfied and was done in short order. From this perspective price can go either way from here.
We have 8 gaps above and 3 below. There is a fair distance to the nearest gaps. So, can't say either up or down will act as a magnet for now.
In my imagination it is plausible that the market may want to spend a little more time around the middle keltner before taking a trip to one of the outer ones, but I don't know what will happen.
Perhaps most interesting is we are seeing a fourth touch on a rising bottoms line under a bigger declining tops line that has three touches.
For now, the rising bottoms line can be considered a bear flag. So, bulls need to make a stand here. Let's see what happens after OPEX.

I remain flat with no trades on deck.
I had long setups trigger Tuesday, but I was away all day and did not put things on autopilot.
If executed, they would have taken scale profits and breakeven stopped after CPI.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Missed it when it happened. Failure at overnight high with a classic bearish engulfing bar.

All the little black numbers are bar types from "The Strat", trying out the numbers to see if it helps my brain.

[Al_Dente]

Options traders are buying a few calls, enough to print a higher low and higher high intraday, but still not enough to get too excited about yet

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Futures roll is 97% complete. So next up is options expiration and it is again a large one. They say expect extra volatility before the Friday Regular Open.

[te_fern]

They've gotten into this sideways move, gotta have patience.....

[brokebybernacke2]

Something else to worry about:
A 12:01 a.m. Friday deadline to agree to new work terms hangs in the balance, with a strike likely to cost the nation $2B in economic output per day if things go off the rails.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm2rxqjdw4E

hmm. trannies down >1% today.

[merryme]

Symmetrical Triangles can be seen on all timeframes, even monthly (which is unusual in my charting.)

This is a 60 min chart with noted break points.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:06 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/09 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

RAILROADS: "The Tentative Agreement has been rejected and the strike authorization vote was approved by ... members. Out of respect for other unions in the ratification process,
an extension has been agreed to until Sept. 29, 2022 at 12 p.m. ET.
This extension will allow us to continue to negotiate changes ... in the hopes of achieving an agreement our membership would ratify."
As Congress steps in to fuk things up

[Cobra]

Breakout, maybe it's a measured move up?

[te_fern]

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