Cobra's Market View

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Don't know whether the double bottom rebound was over or not, you can read it as a kiss the neckline goodbye though. The current red bar is big so probably a rebound here first that's the only thing I know.

ES daily. Bulls are trying to make a stand and to move the market up.

ES 60 minutes. Strong push down. Testing beneath the Pivot.

ES 5 minutes 3 pushes down. And a bounce back up to the EMA 20. Beneath the Pivot.

Back later ...

the market has one .75 rate hike priced in. that is it. QE has market so well trained.

Fresh new lows in bonds, seems like this could potentially be 100+ point down day on SPY unless bonds bounce here.

It seems like the last two days are very similar: down at open then up at close.

merryme wrote:It seems like the last two days are very similar: down at open then up at close.

The 3rd time's charm? So this time is different?

Cobra wrote:

merryme wrote:It seems like the last two days are very similar: down at open then up at close.

The 3rd time's charm? So this time is different?

Last 2 days Wig20 close was same as SPX close - wig20 ends trading after only 90 minutes of USA is open. Today Wig20 is strong down so west want to go down this time

I have had the theoretical range for wave 2 up on this chart since the weekend. So it did work out over the last 24 hours.
So far it sure isn't acting like a 3 of a 3 down. I have no choice but to count on FOMC tomorrow to make this move look right.

Breakdown in the next couple of bars then it's an early sign of a downtrend day.

3800 keeps tuggin

I'll need go outside, may not update until 1 pm.

New lows on TLT and Investment Grade bonds, not good, zero bounce in them either.. not good for today, Fed meeting tomorrow maybe holds market up but if bonds keep going this way and dollar stays strong, testing June lows seems in the cards sooner rather than later.

THIS MORNING:
Traders are pricing in an 80% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will lift its overnight lending rate tomorrow by 75 basis points for a third time, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. That compares with a 20% probability of a more outsized, 100 basis-point rate increase

ccash04 wrote:New lows on TLT and Investment Grade bonds, not good, zero bounce in them either.. not good for today, Fed meeting tomorrow maybe holds market up but if bonds keep going this way and dollar stays strong, testing June lows seems in the cards sooner rather than later.

Keep an eye on the insurance industry ETFs, kie and iak, because capital losses on bond holdings are mounting.

The industry is now largely a house of cards, with "anticipated returns" being skewed by assumptions, based on past years, of capital gains in bonds. These actuarial computations, on which future annuity and claims payouts are based, are about as sound as the 2005-7 housing market assumption that "home prices only go up".

KIE and IAK are currently underperforming both the general market and XLF. They're both either at or below their 50day and 200day simple MAs.

ES 3900-3905 major support resistance zone would be the 50 to 61.8% retrace of wave i down. We are already at 38% so wave ii is looking correct for now.

Daniel wrote:

ccash04 wrote:New lows on TLT and Investment Grade bonds, not good, zero bounce in them either.. not good for today, Fed meeting tomorrow maybe holds market up but if bonds keep going this way and dollar stays strong, testing June lows seems in the cards sooner rather than later.

Keep an eye on the insurance industry ETFs, kie and iak, because capital losses on bond holdings are mounting.

The industry is now largely a house of cards, with "anticipated returns" being skewed by assumptions, based on past years, of capital gains in bonds. These actuarial computations, on which future annuity and claims payouts are based, are about as sound as the 2005-7 housing market assumption that "home prices only go up".

KIE and IAK are currently underperforming both the general market and XLF. They're both either at or below their 50day and 200day simple MAs.

This is a great point. So far today proved me wrong in that tech not really following long rates or maybe apple is holding everything up, thought move in rates would be fairly negative for stocks.

Maybe the ultimate play is shorting BRKB or BRKA, I view them as essentially a turbo-charged insurance play but more levered to equities than bonds.

everyone says rally into fed. drop after fed. maybe different this time...