09/24/2022 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 64% chances to close up.

[Al_Dente]

[Al_Dente]

Most of my good signals are stolen from Cobra.
Check his subscription site tonight for some choice gems.
This is one of those rare times that I diverge from Cobra's wisdom.
I've kept this chart around for years because it was one of the few clear red warnings in late 2007....
Over the years, it also signaled (red vertical lines) a few interim sells that don't look like much but they were worth a hundred/couple hundred points drop on SPY before it recovered.
But this is long-term WEEKLY.
It now signals to expect more RED

[JFR]

SPY daily.

A big down day, -$6.27 and -1.68%.

Crashing through the July low of 370, and reaching out towards the June low.

A good bounce at day's end. But is that enough to escape the whirlpool, denying the magnetic effect of 360?

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[jademann]

It is wise for investors to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Looks parabolic to me and outside the BB.
Right now, the risk reward is highest for both bulls and bears.
It doesn't mean much but Weekend Wallstreet say that 79% of client accounts are short on this market.
We shall see next week whether they will defend this price to prevent a complete meltdown.
GS said 3600 by end of year not next day.
Crypto up much today also fwiw. Risk on?

[Trades w 2 Cats]

My attempt at a daily view with indicators. Nothing bullish to see here.

Short term the Elliot Wave guys are out of their shorts. Expecting a re-trace back up. They plan on re-shorting at a higher level.

Edit- KVO is the Klinger Volume Oscillator

[Al_Dente]

Contrarians please note:

[BullBear52x]

From " It is what it is department" Panic and Fearful market. We are at the level of Crashing down or a Dead cat bounce here. There is no sign of positive indicators on a daily classical chart that I can find besides extremely oversold.

These following charts are showing common support and resistance lines, support and resistance lines are meant to be broken but it's best use as a pivot point, which is where we are depends on how lines drawn.

Swing setup is triggering sell the rip near closed on Friday. the box is clear if this sell will be good or not.

Intraday: Friday we ended the day with positive price action. same playbook as always, I start from the previous day to know what to do the following trading day. Keep it simple and don't force the trade. Good luck, Peace!

[jademann]

https://schrts.co/eEpPwVNv

[Al_Dente]

NY New Lows were 1106 Friday. WOW.
In May with 1000 lows it took three days to bottom; in June with 1106 lows it took one day to bottom.

[Al_Dente]

The June low printed a HAMMER on REDUCED selling volume (pink), followed by a green double-bottom-doji, a gap, and more green.

Friday we saw a HAMMER suggesting a bottom, but it was on INCREASED selling volume, so the bears are strong.
But with four red volume bars in a row, we are due for a green volume bar.
We could see a couple/few days relief rally...

According to Bulkowski "The hammer ... signals a reversal 60% of the time. That's not bad, but it's also not far from random (50%)."
https://thepatternsite.com/Hammer.html

Also note that SPY's friends printed hammers too.
AAPL is holding up better than QQQ and SPY; bulls have hope.

[merryme]

Slopes at rectangles are equal.

[merryme]

The last time the sma5 crossed down through the sma8 was in 2015. Chart is large so I can't show the whole chart.

[merryme]

$wtic / Oil is moving towards the edge.

[merryme]

Fast chart from Friday. The ranges of selling kept decreasing. I'll probably give the bounce a whirl if we get a break of the top line. Loads of interesting volume bars.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Point-many weekend posts here, usually a sign of a turn.
Important Point We all see the charts saying time for a bounce and there is no other choice but to have a plan if it happens, however in a truly ugly sell off it just keeps going. Looking for the proverbial triple water fall declines like we had after the 2000 top. I did not know what those were at the time, super scary to live through.

Saving Grace- many of the funds have gobbled up lots and lots of puts so they think they are safe. Of course the other side of those bets are held by the New York banks and they are not interested in losing money.

[JFR]

SPY weekly.

How low will it go?

Will 360 be enough blood letting?

I am not into predicting the future of stock market prices.  I trade the charts, as I see them, up or down.  But I beleve having a bias is helpful, giving something to work off of, like placing a bet in poker. Playing the odds.

It has been a bull market since 2009.  The pullback of 2022 was inevitable.   360 is a possible double bottom.

Times are changing, but business carries on.  There is enormous wealth, and it is always looking for opportunities. 

Is 313 in the future?  Could be. 

How about 210, the low of 2020?  Hmm ... don't know about that.  The market would have to put 313 in the rear view mirror first.

Interest rates on money market funds have risen.  Nice to see.  Meantime, I am mostly a scalper and day trader.  Also finding a few swing trade opportunities, for a number of days, here and there.  Bias at this time? Down. Can it change on a dime? Sometimes.

''Let's be careful out there.''

[Al_Dente]

abcd.jpg (16.02 KiB) Viewed 1310 times

WEEKLY
If we use Bulkowski's ABCD pattern as a guide (pink lines in the chart below),
we eventually get to ROUGHLY 315 on the weekly

[koolblue]

Kudos all! Very good posts here! Heres my 2 cents: