Cobra's Market View

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The pullback overnight for now looks like a bull flag so bias is up.

ES daily. Up out of the base, to the EMA 20, where it finds some resistance.

ES 60 minutes. Back down to the Pivot, where it has been for 5 hours.

ES 5 minutes. Stuck between 3763 and 3780 for 4 hours. Looking for a breakout.

Congratulations to Aaron Judge on breaking Roger Maris' home run record of 61 home runs set in 1961. That was 61 years ago. One of the greatest records in all of sports. Billy Cristal made an outstanding movie on Maris and Mantle chasing Ruth's record. 61* Judge experienced some of the pressure that Maris did, but Judge had much more fan support than did Maris. Ruth, DiMaggio, Mantle. It was a tough act to follow for Maris who had no preparation for how to deal with fans or sports writers. As Maris said he was just a kid from a small town who could play some baseball. (Yes, and then there are the steroid records.)

Pardon the baseball reference.

Target on horizontal count.

Gaping down below the box, swing buy setup failed. gapsville market.

Some folks use ARKK as a proxy for the markets. Looking at this chart of ARKK you can see what MAY BE a bottom starting. Look at the Sept volume and it hasn't moved ARKK down to $35 again.

@ resistance line with bullish crossed momentum. will the bounce end here?

Intraday, same playbook here. simple system.

$CPC back over 1, Bearish bias.

ES 5 minutes. Sharp breakdown beneath 3757.

It's a morning hourly hollow red.

NYSE Tick and ES. 1 minute. The Ticks are predominantly beneath 0.

SPY hourly. People read different things into charts. For this trader, on an intraday basis swing trading, the bias is now down. It is not forever, of course. Just in my opinion.

First short term bounce target...

From R.Hanna (Quantifiable Edges)..

Monday and Tuesday saw the best 2-day start (+5.73%) to any month since the inception of the modern $SPX in 1957. Using months that were up > 3% in first 2 day performance as the metric, to give a broader sample, looking at SPX performance going fwd the next three days tend to be flat on avg, with about a 60% win rate. Days 4-10 show steadily building gains in the 1/2 to 1% range, with 2/1 win rates.

These are average or median summaries. The range of results was quite wide. 2008 disaster days skewed the numbers somewhat. But on balance it affirmed the time-honored principle that "Nothing supports bullishness like bullishness", which is best exemplified in the various breadth-thrust indicators.

Break down below this time should fill the gap in a hurry.

ES 5 minutes. In a base. Looking for a breakout.