Cobra's Market View

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Testing the previous low, wait and see. So far it's in a range and now testing the range low so maybe a rebound.

Larger structure view. This may be our 2nd point of FEAR and last shake out.

Previously showed $spx chart on right. Updated SPY chart on left. Previously stated we need to touch maroon line or uptrend gets ahead of itself

ES daily. Day 25 in the very wide base. Price is at its bottom, hanging beneath the EMA 20.

ES 60 minutes. Dropping from the Pivot, to beneath S1.

What's next? R/S level is clear.

ES 1 minute. Some decent moves for scalping. But ya gotta be quick. Right now it is all chop.

$TRIN and $CPC > 1 yesterday, will see if the sellers will get squeeze like last few times. if not, this time is different.

$NDXT ( Nasdaq 100 technology) should stay above 5898.45.

ES 1 minute. Falling like a stone. Down to S2.

1-2-3 Trend reversal reminder. break down this time the selling will be hard and fast.

Got the slope wrong, as usual. But I have to stay with this count unless we get a Santa Rally, which is not likely.
In any event this micro wave three looks pretty much done.

ES 1 minute.

Getting a bounce, back up to S2.

Taking a break ...

The NYMO cycle remains DOWN.
We continue to post lower highs and lower lows.

Price has closed all nearby down gaps.
Price has also returned to the middle Keltner band. Now what?...
The 200 MA and the declining tops line continue to offer resistance.
Interestingly, the rising middle keltner and falling 200 MA are poised to converge if this range trade continues.

We have also tagged the NYMO benchmark at SPX 3905.42 for this downcycle.
In a sense this is bullish as a 34 day NYMO down cycle has resulted in an unchanged price.

I am still flat. I did put on a small R2K short early in the week that was stopped by Tuesday's CPI spike.
I should have reloaded that one...

Mr B, I got stopped out also. still kicking myself.. I am willing to buy SPXU if 3900 breaks.

Consolidation or bear flag, so bias is down.

Last week I posted a VIX chart suggesting that folks watch for a channel break which we got.
Perhaps we are in a VIX Up cycle implying a bearish future for SPX, but there is a fly in the ointment.
While the VIX has popped (opening up two down gaps by the way), the next month (January) VIX future does not seem disturbed from its downtrend as it continues to make fresh lows.
I would have liked to see higher local highs in the near month contract to buy into a regime change...
It may be the case that VIX popped to cope with this week's news flow and OPEX, but the intermediate trend remains down.
I have no idea what will happen, but a falling VIX after OPEX may provide some support for the index in the days ahead. We shall see.
Charts follow:

ES 5 minutes.

Testing for a breakdown beneath support.

Red line, to keep negative price action the sellers need to press on. or we bottom here for today.

2018 december algo is kicking in? Powell will not pivot like he did then..drop , then sideways? AAPL 27 PE, needs 17 or lower? bear musings for today , its bearish out there Santa where are you, paging Santa!