03/15/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

Wow, huge huge gap down finally, this is an impulse down I'm talking about. Usually on a big gap down day I won't think above V reversal but this gap is way too huge, so no idea, there're chances for capitulation but as the market hasn't been selling before, so if indeed a capitulation, at least it's the one I've never seen, so no idea again. My initial plan is still to sell the bounce, try not to be a smart guy buying the dip, well, that's me only.

Global ES looks a little promising though as it had already the 2nd leg to test the previous low which usually is required before a meaningful rebound. Well, let's see. SPY ST Model should trigger a short today as long as today's open > today's close but again since the gap is too huge, I'd rather wait and normally chances are low that the market closed open > close on a day like this anyway.

[alvian33]

morning cobra, the bigger picture, we still can go much lower correct before a meaningful rebound?

[foakdoordoor]

morning. Does pulse move in 3 or 5 waves?

[KENA]

Could be a buying opertunity.Stocktiming.com says some of the mkt internals were looking better yesterday. Lets see how it goes a bit after the opening.

[thelefteyeguy]

morning cobra, the bigger picture, we still can go much lower correct before a meaningful rebound?

what do you mean by meaningful rebound? backtest? ....since this is OPeX....an excellent backtest target is 1280spx....but I think every bear that missed the boat is looking for that...so it might not come.

i am looking for 1222 as the bottom...might not come today...but hopefully eventually.

[Cobra]

morning cobra, the bigger picture, we still can go much lower correct before a meaningful rebound?

Yes, it's possible. We'll have to wait and see.

[99er]

Morning.

Feeling bullish?

/ES
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/es_15.html

Better get some coffee.

Good luck!

[cletus]

SPY triangle target was around 126 so a bounce here is possible. I will never hold a long position in this environment, but I will take profits on some of my puts and leveraged short ETF positions (6:1 leveraged short heading into today on my full wealth) in this area and wait to see what unfolds. The 1280 level has indeed broken, as I've been predicting for weeks, and no other analyst successfully predicted. Can't find a single one who got the call right.

[thelefteyeguy]

Morning.

Feeling bullish?

/ES
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/es_15.html

Better get some coffee.

Good luck!

bear porn

[Cobra]

The open. Usually should recover a little so bulls no panic here.

[alvian33]

hmm doesn't look like bulls can recover something as of now(

[Cobra]

hmm doesn't look like bulls can recover something as of now(

At least statistics says so, it's from Bespoke.

[BullBear52x]

morning,

this gap is the one, P3? or 3 of 3? whatever it is take profit as much as you can, sell the rally is the game for the next couple of weeeks.

[alvian33]

hehehe, thank cobra...

[uempel]

Monthly support BB13/1 is now a bit lower at 1262 (the BBs move, as do the MAs):

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... &listNum=4

[simpletrade]

Didn't see the real panic, so I think we need to see a panic selling before any strong rally. Then again, if nuclear scare in Japan turns out to be less than feared, then this could be a bottom. Judge by yesterday's market action, my read is, we're not at the bottom, more to come.
BTW, the Chinese solar stocks I mentioned yesterday continued to rally, JASO, LDK, TSL, etc. If solar stocks are down with the market, maybe we hit the bottom?

[Cobra]

Didn't see the real panic, so I think we need to see a panic selling before any strong rally. Then again, if nuclear scare in Japan turns out to be less than feared, then this could be a bottom. Judge by yesterday's market action, my read is, we're not at the bottom, more to come.
BTW, the Chinese solar stocks I mentioned yesterday continued to rally, JASO, LDK, TSL, etc. If solar stocks are down with the market, maybe we hit the bottom?

So far it's normal, a sharp gap down usually will recover a little at open.

[alvian33]

thanx cobra for the bespoke table, I made my lunch money by going long few ES contracts at the open, appreciate it:) need to buy you a beer

[99er]

SPX
Prices have moved from the original channel (purple) and deciding between the faster channels.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/spx_15.html

[Cobra]

thanx cobra for the bespoke table, I made my lunch money by going long few ES contracts at the open, appreciate it:) need to buy you a beer

I'll remember that.