Cobra's Market View

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Not sure whether it's a valid breakdown. Bias is down though.

ES daily. Dropping down beneath the base of 14 days. Beneath the EMA 20. Down to a trendline.

ES 60 minutes.

After some roller coaster days, quiet on President's Day. I expect the action will heat up.

Down through the Pivots, all the way to S3, where it finds some support.

Check HD, WMT eps
While checking on the market response to WMT today, I finally noticed the daily candle in late Jan and my eyes popped out

Dow 30.

At the open ... A sea of red.

HD, DIS and INTC at the bottom.

CVX the lone stock in the green, barely.

ES 5 minutes.

Choppy at the open. Not a surprise.

Back later ...

NYSE Tick and ES 1 minute.

getting follow thru on bear signal on friday.

WMT daily candle in Jan was reported as a glitch that happened to many, many stocks.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/some ... 023-01-24/

Potential Turning point... waiting

Layoffs are one thing, here's another:
"CEOs taking pay cuts as uncertain economic conditions weigh"
https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-le ... ions-weigh

random poster says: "What's the matter guys, running out of thousands of employees to lay off?"

Break down here in the next couple of bars would be an early sign of a downtrend day.

This is more than a bit flamboyant but if you read it what he says is very reasonable. There must be some sort of reason for Mr. Wilson to have the #2 track record behind Mr. Hartnett. Oh, don't forget they are both in agreement that the market should go down from here.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inves ... n-dcef3c63

The NYMO cycle is DOWN!
However, as I write, it is dipping into the lower Turn Zone.
So, some kind of inflection could be near unless it decides to proceed to Oversold.

Pricewise, we have an open down gap at SPX 4017.77 that is close enough to be a magnet for closure.
We also have a benchmark for this NYMO cycle at SPX 3997.76.
Interestingly these two potential targets converge with the middle keltner band and the rising bottoms line of the big channel (bear flag cough cough).
So, we have a good neighborhood for a technical price low dead ahead.
We have four open gaps above that look interesting for a retest of recent highs. We shall see.
As usual, the market can do whatever it wants, and I have no idea what will happen.

The narrow rising channel has been persuasively broken.
Closes out of the wide rising channel could be bad for the bulls and signal bear market resumption.

I am flat and have been out of the market on other matters.
I actually have short setups ripening to enter a down trend.
However, as noted above, conditions are developing for a bullish inflection.
So, any positioning will be on a short leash and subject to whipsaw.

"US Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline In January, Record 37% YoY ..."
"...consensus expected to reveal a 2% MoM rebound. However, existing home sales for January actually tumbled 0.7% MoM (well below the 2.0% jump expected) and the record 12th straight monthly decline with December's 1.5% decline actually revised even worse to -2.2% MoM..

Attempting the turn...

ES 5 minutes.

Testing down beneath support.

Alternatives.

15 minutes.

4 down. IYR, SPYG, SPYV, TLT.

4 flat. DBC, GLD, USO, UUP.

Weekly charts.

3 up. GLD. SPYV. TLT.

5 "mostly flat" DBC, IYR, SPYG, USO, UUP. As Arnold Palmer's Scottish caddie said, when asked how a putt would run, "mostly straight."

/ES4030 just not holding, wow!

Are we there yet?, from here on I will pay attention to positive price action. nothing to see for bulls so far.