04/21/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Double bottom? So maybe a rebound here?

[JFR]

ES daily.

Day 16 in this trading range, filled with dojis.

The candle is a doji.

Above the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Lots of downward pressure.

Finding support at 4143. In a range between the Pivot and 4143.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/04 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Strong move down. Down through the Pivot. Trying for a breakdown, beneath support.

[Al_Dente]

stockcharts was down, then up but sluggish, now down again?
Is it just me?

[merryme]

Stockcharts = DOWN!

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon- ... =home-page

[JFR]

TSLA daily.

Not quite a dog, but it does have some fleas.

It does have some good financials, imo. P/E is not one of them, overpriced at 45.19.

Hard to feel sorry for Elon Musk. So much money, but most people do not want to live with turmoil and controversy, unlike him and DJT, for whom he did not vote.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... =home-page

This article amounts to a mini-workshop on technical analysis, TA. No, that is not t*** and a**.

The tumble in Tesla Inc.’s stock on Thursday has confirmed a bearish short-term “double-top” pattern, just like the one seven months ago that preceded the plunge at the end of 2022.

A “double top” depicts failure by bulls, as after a pullback from a fresh high the ensuing bounce isn’t able to re-establish the uptrend. If the next pullback falls below the previous pullback’s low, the failure is confirmed, and the outlook becomes bearish.

For Tesla’s stock TSLA, 0.10%, the 3 1/2-month closing high of $214.24 on Feb. 14 represented the first top and the March 31 peak of $207.46 marked the second top, while the March 9 closing low of $172.92 was the first pullback’s trough.

Thursday’s selloff after the electric vehicle maker’s disappointing first-quarter results took the stock below that trough, to suggest the short-term uptrend off the 2 1/2-year low of $108.10 hit on Jan. 3 has ended.

As noted by Frank Cappelleri, technical analyst at CappThesis LLC, the latest double-top pattern “appears like the pattern that developed last summer,” just before the stock’s bottom fell out in late September.

The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is a momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains with the magnitude of recent losses, was also showing a similar pattern of lower highs while the stock was seeing higher lows. This “bearish technical divergence” suggests each rally was taking more out of the bulls, and that momentum was starting to swing to the bears.

[BullBear52x]

One day doesn't make a trend. but bullish no more.

[BullBear52x]

Intraday: Think auction. swing low continues, same playbook.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... =home-page

More ...

One thing to keep in mind, however, is that at the beginning stages of the September selloff, the broader stock market was also falling. “Clearly, things have changed since then from that perspective,” Cappelleri wrote in a note to clients.

That’s not all. Despite the stock’s big 86.8% bounce off the Jan. 3 low, the 50-day moving average failed to cross above the 200-day moving average that was still declining, which suggests the bounce was big enough to reverse the longer-term downtrend. Read more about the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

“The same thing happened last summer/fall, which enhanced the ensuing downturn,” Cappelleri wrote.

On what may be a bright note, the stock’s selloff on Thursday has reached the next key Fibonacci retracement level, which could provide some short-term support for a bounce.

Wall Street followers of the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618, also known as the “golden,” or “divine,” ratio for its prevalence throughout natural systems, believe the first area of support sits around the 38.2% retracement level (1 minus 0.618) of the prior uptrend. Read more about the Fibonacci ratio.

Coincidentally, the $41.32 pullback from the first top to the March 9 low represented 38.9% of the $106.14 rally off the Jan. 3 low to the Feb. 14 peak, to fall just below the 38.2% retracement level of $173.69, before the stock bounce.

The next two key retracement levels are 50.0%, which sits at $161.17, and 61.8%, which comes in at $148.65.

The stock dropped as much as 11.1% to an intraday low of $160.56 on Thursday, or below the 50% retracement level, but bounced to close just above it, down 9.75% at $162.99.

Many Fibonacci followers believe that if a decline surpasses the 61.8% retracement level, the previous uptrend has lost its influence on the stock, and fresh lows may be on the horizon.

Meanwhile, resistance levels to watch start with the $172.92-to-$173.69 area, which is bounded by the March 9 low and the 38.2% retracement level.

Longest post ever, Man. Gawd. But I did want to put it here on Cobra's website, as I will no doubt look at it again.

Not my data. Not my charts. Not my opinions.

[Cobra]

Down up down up, so far it's a typical range day, no direction.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Chop City. Big Chop City. But definitely playable, with clean moves.

Back later, maybe.

Have a good weekend, Everyone.

[BullBear52x]

The Hype to new economy, these are all good from recent bubble memories:

Dot com
Social media
Housing
Cannabis
Bit coin
Steve Job, Mark Zuckerburge, Sam Banman_Fried, and Elon Musk

some last and mature and back to its mean, but the bubble is real in any new found market, who doesn't like iPod, iPad, iPhone, iWatch, iCar (still waiting), iPay, IBank (new talk in town)

[Trades w 2 Cats]

I have tried (and failed) to explain to my kids that just because you have a great product does not mean you have a great investment. Over the decades human nature has not changed. So the new nifty fifty are losing their halo and coming back down to reality. I keep going back to the legendary Bob Farrell's 10 rules because they have the answers.

Look at the numbers on loans and payments. Houses and cars are getting crushed. When the average consumer has lost purchasing power for something like 23 months straight why would you expect tech gadgets and streaming entertainment to be doing anything but losing sales. Finally, with significant layoffs, store closing news etc who is going to be increasing their advertising spend?

If my doom and gloom is accurate then the eight stocks holding up the market could start bringing it down.

I will post my oil tanker slide set this weekend, to counterbalance this negativity.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

I have retuned my tick chart to not equal spacing the bars. So the chart gives an visual representation on the intensity of the action via the bar spacing. I am still working with the 1 period ATR as a volatility measure. I am running the 13 period exponential calculation ATR through the dots Dots and ATR in black). Anyway, you can see that the excitement is over for now.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:15 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/04 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

Running out of gas, the way it is now, we will be in RED zone if Monday continues the weakness. Down Friday will not look good for the following Monday.