Cobra's Market View

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So far it can be seen as a typical revisit of the yesterday's low so higher low (or slightly lower low) or not, wait and see.

$XBD is only good for market direction. There is a lag between SPY and $XBD and I don't use 200SMA for it. There are times while market showing upward trend. $XBD is underselling. $XBD is like $VIX, $CPCE,$SKEW,$MOVE ...These volatility indexes for different form of trades.I have not seen anyone using any 200SMA for volitlity. Sometimes it is accurate when the market wants to drop and SPY is still in green zone. There times not so accurate. It is another tool while watching market in real time.
SPX PE hit the top of part of my BB (20,1.5),[ not standrad of deviation of 2 by stockchart].
Not to mistaken with market weakness/drop with Market crashing. $SKEW ( volaitlity of stocks)is high as 2022, $MOVE( volatility bonds) have not confirm yet.

What Is the MOVE Index? The MOVE Index measures fear in the bond market, that is, uncertainty about interest rates. It's similar to the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX). Both look at one-month volatility and realized volatility.

The Cboe SKEW Index (SKEW) measures perceived tail-risk in the distributions of S&P 500 investment returns over a 30-day horizon.

Same playbook Momentum, there's Pos D

So far internals and short term momentum are pointing south, for price action we need to see lower trade than yesterday, if so, thing can get bad fast. atm /ES is still holding well.

Can the US Treasury drain a trillion dollars out of the system while M2 continues to shrink without causing a ripple in the stock market? The narrative is that it (stock market) will come down next week as Treasury acts starting 5 seconds after Biden signs the Bill. So, in theory, going long has to be seen as a counter trend trade until the treasury is done. I think I saw an expectation that it will be about a month long funding operation.

So sell in May and go away.

ES daily.

Pullback from the high of May 29.

Touching the EMA 20.

$XBD with SMA 200 response was for someone who stated $XBD has not reached to SMA 200 yeaterday. It is just a tool like any other tools to capture the direction of market faster for daytrading. It is not intended to scare anyone. It could go any directions.

ES 60 minutes.

Down through the Pivot.

Support just beneath at 4174.

NQ. Nasdaq futures. 5 minutes.

Very choppy. Thrashing for two hours. Huge spikes.

High Net Worth investors hold record cash [CNBC, now]

Alternative markets. 15 minutes.

Recent moves.

GLD and TLT, "safety" assets up.

UUP down.

ORCC. Owl Rock Capital Corporation. HQ in New York, NY.

With the market down, there is not much coming up on scans for longs from my StockCharts lists.

P/E at 8.54.

Yield at 9.39%.

Nice move up in May.

Not recommending. Just sharing information.

If it has a well-behaved pullback or pause, I will take a closer look at its charts.

Later ...

Note: Hormel Foods HRL, on reaction to earnings.
I love their chili beans, which have doubled in price.

Not a good start but now it looks like an uptrend day.

Trades w 2 Cats wrote:Can the US Treasury drain a trillion dollars out of the system while M2 continues to shrink without causing a ripple in the stock market? The narrative is that it (stock market) will come down next week as Treasury acts starting 5 seconds after Biden signs the Bill. So, in theory, going long has to be seen as a counter trend trade until the treasury is done. I think I saw an expectation that it will be about a month long funding operation.

So sell in May and go away.

From listening to a few macro guy's on TWTR (Namely Andy Constan @Dampedspring) the real issue might be bank runs again, vs direct pressure on equities.

$VIX
The last two times the VIX entered a 15 handle, it immediately bounced all the way back above 20.
Is this time different?
We will find out soon.
[Heisenberg]

Very overbought now, Neg D, the bulls will not just fold like the bears on divergences, but high should be in or near.

The pullback probably will be bought eventually.