Cobra's Market View

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No sign of a bottom yet.

ES daily.

Lower highs. Lower lows.

EMA 20 down.

Yes, it is trend down. On this timeframe. For now.

In French ski racing, it has been called La Descente, the Downhill. Exhilarating. Dangerous.

ES 60 minutes.

Down. Down. Down. Down.

Looking for support at 4353.

ES 5 minutes.

Getting a bit of a bounce, up to the EMA 20.

FT 71 suggested sitting on hands for 1st half-hour.

It's a morning hourly hollow red

Mr. B here with an increasingly rare check-in.
I have altered my trading to free up time for other things.
Historically, I have taken bigger positions and scaled out profit units pretty quickly to leave a comfortable runner with protective stops. It worked well.
Lately, I have been taking smaller positions and absorbing volatility without scaling to capture more of a swing if I am fortunate. Time will tell if I should keep doing this.
It allows me to limit screen time to the morning and go do other things. So, I have been posting less too.

The NYMO cycle is DOWN and has been since July 13.
We have had a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
However, we are now in the Lower Turn Zone and have been for 3 days (4 if today doesn't bounce).
So, it is time to be watching for a turn. Intraday NYMO is up today while price is down, so we have a divergence.
We are pretty close to the oversold zone too. If NYMO drops down there, I will be looking for a bounce.

Price cut throught the 50 MA and middle keltner band pretty cleanly (no pause, bearish).
We have gaps above and below that can act as magnets.
The two nearest down gaps are interesting. The first breaks a low that could trigger some stops. The second would tag a stranded NYMO benchmark at SPX 4299.19.
All stranded NYMO benchmarks get tagged eventually.

Big picture, my bias remains bullish because the last rally tagged the upper keltner band.
If bears can tag the lower keltner band (presently SPX 4248.94), bias flips.
Guessing there is at least a bounce to the middle keltner in the cards before bears can confirm control of the ball, but I don't know what will happen.

I am short SPX and NDQ.
Generally, Mr. Market doesn't like to put in a low on Fridays.
So, maybe some lower lows early next week (not a prediction).
If I see positive divergences or perhaps ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech, I may take some profits.

10 yr going down. TNX Bond buying.

EMA20 now is the bear's last stand (well, actually the only stand) for today. Key time.

ES 5 minutes.

A mini-rally on ES. Playable as scalps on lower time frames.

Rising wedge (aka 3 push up) then double top, so this double top may have chances. Breakdown to confirm.

Traders Dynamic ( 3 time frame RSI) now into overbought territory. As if you needed confirmation of high volatility on Op Ex

You're becoming a whale trader! Next tier up of trading perhaps

Mr. BachNut wrote:Mr. B here with an increasingly rare check-in.
I have altered my trading to free up time for other things.
Historically, I have taken bigger positions and scaled out profit units pretty quickly to leave a comfortable runner with protective stops. It worked well.
Lately, I have been taking smaller positions and absorbing volatility without scaling to capture more of a swing if I am fortunate. Time will tell if I should keep doing this.
It allows me to limit screen time to the morning and go do other things. So, I have been posting less too.

.....

NYMO 081823.jpg

The 4th test, breakout should be more likely.

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Monday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377