Cobra's Market View

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Generally need at least a higher low before a solid bottom can be possible, so the chart looks missing a revisit. Generally though as bulls never lack "this is time is different".

ES daily.

The bulls are awake.

Getting a small bounce.

ES 60 minutes.

Down. Down. Down.

And then up from S1, through the Pivot, up to R1.

ES 5 minutes.

Roller Coaster.

Nice fades.

Bank index is in red, lower BB. Brokers overbought now.

ES 5 minutes.

Crazy market since the open.

"Mad, bad and dangerous." OK, not quite that bad.

There are scalps to be made.

Back later ...

Maybe we are retesting the lower low of Friday. Looking at bank index from Jan 2023, we never had 6 days in a row selling except in March. Today is not over, anything can haapen till 4 PM. Bulls can rally anytime, but Banks and Brokers need to rally with them. (IMO)

Gap closed

Typically by now the low would be in, even though the rebound so far looks weak, seemingly rollover is more likely. I mean let's see whether "always give bulls the benefit of the doubt" still works or not.

Staring Friday low 433.01 and going up to SPY 438.89 today and drop 435.XX is almost 61.8% fib level. Let's see if any buyers step in.

Guess bears are over for today. The best for them is a range day, i.e. the rebound rises to around day high then rollover.

In My opinion , Just an opinion, We are not out of the wood yet. Lower low is very possible but anything possible. US high yeiled index option adjusted spread should not go in the same direction as SPY. We will have rally but not without the banks.

My opinion is US Banks are a dead man walking. Newsmedia says 70% of Commercial Real Estate loans are on their books (CRE). Metro downtown high rise towers are going for 35 cents on the dollar in the harder hit cities. Please remember these are 5 year notes with a 25 year amortization schedule so the paper has to be re-written.

Second problem is the Government paper they are sitting on. Fed is already trying to paper that by saying no mark to market when used as collateral for a Fed loan.

Third is delinquent consumer debt is going up, not down, as in credit cards and auto loans.

The Fed will do what the can to paper it over cause doubtful they could get yet another bail out through congress without a very large price tag.

Finally, all of us who were front and center when Volker blew up the industry fighting inflation are gone so there is no collective memory of a long term mismatch between assets and liabilities.

Just my opinion and I don't know much.

Clear breakout, so this bull shall have legs.

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Tuesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374