Cobra's Market View

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Price channel, now testing the channel upper boundary, might have a pullback here.

ES daily.

Two days of bullish bars.

Trying for a breakout above the resistance line.

ES 60 minutes.

On the up and up.

From S2, through S1, through the Pivot, and through R1, all the way to 4440.

ES 5 minutes.

A bullish day so far. We will see how it reacts at the open.

ES 5 minutes.

Heading south at the open.

Back later ...

A friend of mine retired 3 years ago and being financially conservative and cautious put most of his money into bonds and almost none in the stock market.
He doesn't understand why he has lost so much money. Seems unfair to me also.
The worst thing is he has to draw on this money now, he can't wait it out.
Is there any hope that he can ever recover from this?

jademann wrote:A friend of mine retired 3 years ago and being financially conservative and cautious put most of his money into bonds and almost none in the stock market.
He doesn't understand why he has lost so much money. Seems unfair to me also.
The worst thing is he has to draw on this money now, he can't wait it out.
Is there any hope that he can ever recover from this?

Your friend needs to learn to read a chart. For bonds, stocks, currency or anything, even real estate.

For this trader, more important than any economic or news factors is the chart.

Recover or survive? Easier to survive than recover his losses. If he cannot wait it out, he must consider bailing out. But then he needs to put his money somewhere. For that imo he will need to read charts. If you are successful overall with your investments, you could share some of your knowledge.

When TLT headed south in 2020, that was time to exit bonds, and look for another play. And sometimes just keeping your savings in money markets is a wise play. A safe 4% is possible at this time with money markets. IMO.

The sad thing is that "old school" thinking was that bonds are "safe." Not. Just like anything else they go up and down. Certainly not as volatile as the stock market, however.

Just in my opinion, since you asked.

jademann wrote:A friend of mine retired 3 years ago and being financially conservative and cautious put most of his money into bonds and almost none in the stock market.
He doesn't understand why he has lost so much money. Seems unfair to me also.
The worst thing is he has to draw on this money now, he can't wait it out.
Is there any hope that he can ever recover from this?

If I remember correctly, it's the first time ever (so far) that bond was down more than stocks.

I too lost a lot holding long term bond. My short term bond gained though.

As for "recover", needs the inflation to go down which in theory shouldn't be easy. We could be in the high inflation era now as "De-globalization" is underway which means everything would be more expensive.

JFR, he doesn't trade so he has never used a chart unfortunately for him.
I never use bonds however I am wondering if they are something to consider here and now.
I probably wouldn't have sold because I wouldn't have believed that what has happened could happen.

As Cobra said it is the first time this has happened.
I agree inflation and rates have to come down for a recovery.
I will probably wait for this even if I miss buying the bottom.

jademann wrote:JFR, he doesn't trade so he has never used a chart unfortunately for him.
I never use bonds however I am wondering if they are something to consider here and now.
I probably wouldn't have sold because I wouldn't have believed that what has happened could happen.

As Cobra said it is the first time this has happened.
I agree inflation and rates have to come down for a recovery.
I will probably wait for this even if I miss buying the bottom.

For most people, the best way is to buy and hold, so I don't think he did anything wrong. I too hold long term bond to follow the classical investment strategy, say, 60% in fixed income and 40% in equity. He was just unlucky that he need sell the long term bond now (just like the Silicon Valley Bank). In the end we all will need some lucks so inevitably sometimes we'll have bad lucks. Don't think anything we can do to prevent bad lucks otherwise we'd be the richest man in the world now.

Typically the low should be in now and we're in the up and up till the close phase, typically, let's see.

Cobra wrote:

jademann wrote:A friend of mine retired 3 years ago and being financially conservative and cautious put most of his money into bonds and almost none in the stock market.
He doesn't understand why he has lost so much money. Seems unfair to me also.
The worst thing is he has to draw on this money now, he can't wait it out.
Is there any hope that he can ever recover from this?

If I remember correctly, it's the first time ever (so far) that bond was down more than stocks.

I too lost a lot holding long term bond. My short term bond gained though.

As for "recover", needs the inflation to go down which in theory shouldn't be easy. We could be in the high inflation era now as "De-globalization" is underway which means everything would be more expensive.

Maybe we should say it's all the Fed's fault. We paid them very high salary to let them watch the inflation yet they failed.

In the Canada's case it's even worse, we paid the center bank very high salary, not only they failed to watch the inflation but also the head of bank even ONCE SAID: The rate would be remain low for very long time, so you should buy this buy that blah blah blah!

I don't know if buy the dip is better or buy the "V". I almost put my order in for FAs at 61.95 and it did not go through and I cancelled it. Now it is dropping 61.72.

Don't know whether the low was in or not. But should the current rebound fails that bears are able to touch the blue line below again then breakdown would be more likely as the ling has been tested so many times.

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Wednesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

Jademann, Just read your post. So sorry for this guy. I think Cobra's advice is accurate. Sometimes Luck is NOT in our favor. I wish him and you the very best. It is hard to be retired and watch your fixed income disappear.