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06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:02 am
by Cobra
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Flat open, so any gap will be filled.
The Global ES still looks like a Bear Flag, so the bias is still down, not strong conviction this time though, but, if you look at the DAX daily chart, the rebound in the past 2 days was weak, more likely a continuation pattern. If DAX resume the drop, I don't think SPX would ignore it.
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:09 am
by Al_Dente
GM
Interesting short-term expectation from JPM to clients late Monday:
“…over the next week [this week only], we think quarterend rebalancing flows may support risky assets…”
They don’t mean “window dressing,” they are talking about “rebalancing” portfolios that require a fixed percentage of assets in bonds and stocks. Because bonds have outperformed stocks this quarter, portfolio mgrs are expected to sell bonds and buy stocks this week, to rebalance the percentage allocation in their portfolios.
http://screencast.com/t/4mkes5WOPh
So, I’m on squeeze alert until Friday’s close.
Also, note on the daily SPY heikin ashi, there were 8 times this year heikin closed with a “black filled” candlestick (see green circles on candles). All previous occurrences this year were followed by a bounce.
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:16 am
by TraderJoe
Al,
The 8 “black filled” candlestick you show is interesting indeed...
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:21 am
by Al_Dente
TraderJoe wrote:Al,
The 8 “black filled” candlestick you show is interesting indeed...
thx joe, i thought so too (but grain-of-salt, as usual) [edit: as I don’t know how the market can see this $LIBOR-manipulation news as anything but bearish!]
GL2u
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:22 am
by OverUnder
The EU and the Supreme Court have me on pins on needles, more stress than I'd like for sure. General sentiment seems to be that if the SC rules against more than 1 aspect of Obama care the market rallies. At least that's what Cramer and my friend's dad says lol.
Gap fill completed on XLF yesterday?
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:23 am
by TraderJoe
UNG was up 5% a few moments ago...
06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:29 am
by Richarab
Natural gas competed its W
Noted by a trader some time back
Thanks for that
Also
Gold is lively this morning
News about printing presses?
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Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:29 am
by KENA
Al_Dente..Thanks for the info.I may hold my swing trades a little longer.
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:29 am
by gappy
TraderJoe wrote:UNG was up 5% a few moments ago...
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/no-c ... l-gas.html Light read
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:31 am
by ClarkW
Does anyone trade based on $NATGAS prices? If so, what do you use? My experience with UNG is that it has a poor correlation but it's been awhile since I played with it. I know there's GASL/GASX (3x) and BOIL/KOLD (2x) but question their correlation as well.
$NATGAS appears to have broken neckline of Inverse H&S with a huge measured move. Might be interesting on weakness....
No positions, not a recommendation
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am
by Cobra
the open.
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:32 am
by TraderJoe
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:33 am
by TraderGirl
Ichimoku cloud was a good resistance point, now will we get a new low???
I posted the chart below a couple of weeks ago...
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:35 am
by Cobra
I think it's heading for the double bottom target now.
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:37 am
by Al_Dente
KENA wrote:Al_Dente..Thanks for the info.I may hold my swing trades a little longer.
BUT Kena look at the spy shape from 4 june to now
Would u call that a dome-ish?
(I’m looking at 30min)
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:38 am
by TraderGirl
Interesting chart....we are either going to get a new low, or we are going to get a higher low...on the last couple of summer corrections, whether we were at the lower low or higher low resulted in 3 of the 4 indicators below being in oversold territory. Right now none of the indicators are in oversold territory....so it is most likely we are not at the bottom yet....
06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:39 am
by Richarab
ClarkW wrote:Does anyone trade based on $NATGAS prices? If so, what do you use? My experience with UNG is that it has a poor correlation but it's been awhile since I played with it. I know there's GASL/GASX (3x) and BOIL/KOLD (2x) but question their correlation as well.
$NATGAS appears to have broken neckline of Inverse H&S with a huge measured move. Might be interesting on weakness....
No positions, not a recommendation
Nat gas and oil
For 20 years ran at 10:1 price ratio
5$ ng
50$ oil
That ratio has popped to something like 50:1
There may be a rebalancing occurring
I certainly don't think our energy consumption - while greater - has varied any more one way or the other
Excess surplus of NG in the states should move the ratio - say 20:1? - but NG also is 15$ is south Korea
I BBQ a lot
As do the Koreans
We both use gas
Look for oil to drop is what I think
Plus NG to drop hard at this 3$ mark, then meander higher till 2013
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Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:41 am
by OverUnder
Let's not and say we did. If you know that old joke.
Cobra wrote:I think it's heading for the double bottom target now.
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:43 am
by Hardy
Very interesting, thank you
Re: 06/27/2012 Live Update
Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 9:45 am
by ClarkW
Richarab wrote:ClarkW wrote:Does anyone trade based on $NATGAS prices? If so, what do you use? My experience with UNG is that it has a poor correlation but it's been awhile since I played with it. I know there's GASL/GASX (3x) and BOIL/KOLD (2x) but question their correlation as well.
$NATGAS appears to have broken neckline of Inverse H&S with a huge measured move. Might be interesting on weakness....
No positions, not a recommendation
Nat gas and oil
For 20 years ran at 10:1 price ratio
5$ ng
50$ oil
That ratio has popped to something like 50:1
There may be a rebalancing occurring
I certainly don't think our energy consumption - while greater - has varied any more one way or the other
Excess surplus of NG in the states should move the ratio - say 20:1? - but NG also is 15$ is south Korea
I BBQ a lot
As do the Koreans
We both use gas
Look for oil to drop is what I think
Plus NG to drop hard at this 3$ mark, then meander higher till 2013
Thanks for your comments Richarab!
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