Cobra's Market View

Down 1 week, the next week has 60% chances to close up.

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

From "It is what it is department" Market top price action, the mega funds seems to be moving the money out of MSFT and GOOG to somewhere, GOLD or NVDA?, lots of talks they move to the Rut 2000 (IWM), but IWM seems to hit the ceiling also short term, the rotation will continue, once it all said and done the true direction of the major indexe like $SPX will let us know where we are going, for now, other than a daily trend following which is buy and hold, any shorter term trade is No trend, day trade only.
Lets look at topping price action behavior here. on last Tuesday marked the first overlap closed, signaling the end of the up trend is near. market managed to push to new HH after Tuesday with a negative divergence and only to end with a bearish engulfing on Friday closed. If we trade under the yellow high lighted box it will be of no doubt to say that the trend change is at hand, for now we will have to wait to see, if there will be a new HH, I'd like to see a bullish crossed on MACD. if not the selling pressure will continue. It is a fearful market, this is the reason I am not shy to take a bearish trade in this area. Swing setup: No trending, last buy failed, next rip will be sold. Intraday: Friday closed the day with a negative price action, look above and failed, topped with a bearish engulfing on a daily candle stick. I can't get too bullish on this, expecting more weakness into Monday. know your time frame of a trade and trade it well. Peace!

Look at the few stocks represent the majority, these are mega cap that the fund managers can move the big lot without denting price, only if the company can maintain the stable forward guidance, there are so much money in the market, the mega stock must maintain the positive out look, or there will be no where to put the money to beside the bear market move like gold, bitcoin, or others commodities. Pay attention to this two next week. where the money go if they dump MSFT? and bearish engulfing on NVDA, will this reversal continue, and where the money will go? Here is another example of a mega cap that lose the confident to maintain the growing outlook, it can turn nasty quick.

SPY daily.

Choppy climb up the wall of worry.

Trend up.

Bearish candle on Friday, along with the new high.

EMAs 20, 50 and 100, all in order and bullish.

Price continues to push the outside of the Bollinger envelope.

Nice pullback plays to the EMA 20 along the way.