Cobra's Market View

Institutional accumulation and distribution from stocktiming. The accumulation dropped dramatically while distribution is still at history low, I don't read the chart as bullish. Rather I'm astonished.
Liquidity also is not enough. a mad cow market, the liquidity should be at the top and remain there.

I think AAII extreme is all over the media now, so enough said. The below screenshot is from Bespoke.

the rest of the election year suppose to be very very bullish. The screenshot below still is from Bespoke.

Smart Money still short.

looks like a distribution week
tick says that the market did not buy during the last week, and so does $naud

Good morning and happy weekend traders!
Looks like we could be in for a very bumpy ride next 5-6 weeks. Wonder if this history repeats and we see volatility rise to 26%? here is the link, http://www.cxoadvisory.com/3724/calenda ... ion-years/

Election year August was bullish according to this research, here is the same link
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/3724/calenda ... ion-years/

Mr MIYAGI: see any pbars fter Friday close?
Marketwtch had 137.75 aprox, and QQs had about 65.10ish, none on iwm
(sorry cannot paste those intraday charts)

I'm still a little more on the bullish side then bearish.Still have 3 of my 5 long swing trades.Last week was more swing trade and little DT.Next week may tell the story of a turning point.It is good to see the A/D chart advance.The chart below is from Dorsey Wright on one ot their weekly commentaries.I can post these charts but all the regular daily P&F charts are blocked.Notice the time duration of the chart.Right now it looks like it has a ways to go befor turning.But as always we have to wait and see what and how much more up there will be.The chart needs a 6% change for a new trend.

Tom McClellan: “…likely that a brief swoon is about to unfold."
(based on bellwether GE and the eurodollar COT leading indicator)
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... or_market/

next few days to a week looks negative for ES futures (610 minute bars) but techs have not had a crossover ? Yet ? first dissapointment in Nazdapple earning coming Tue

“…some are looking at this as the new carry trade, long the yen short the euro - the reverse of the original carry trade…”
http://soberlook.com/2012/07/collapsing ... cting.html

Al_Dente wrote:“…some are looking at this as the new carry trade, long the yen short the euro - the reverse of the original carry trade…”
http://soberlook.com/2012/07/collapsing ... cting.html

Thanks for those links Al!

Head & Shoulders in MS (60 min)?

joe-gamma wrote:[quote="Al_Dente...

Thanks for those links Al![/quote]


PAGING KENA:
Boss: weren’t u long MLNX last week way b4 that 30 point gap???

PAGING COBRA: the link to vote for you fell off your "signature." Please post yr VOTE link, thx

Cobra wrote:I think AAII extreme is all over the media now, so enough said. The below screenshot is from Bespoke.

I was looking for a proxy of aaii sentiment and played with ratio of broad NY stocks above 200 average versus more narrow tech stocks above 50 day....this seems to point a bit negative for next couple of weeks...as in when fast stoch of Ny200 to NA50 is oversold a correction tends to follow in equities until the Stoch RSI sees some bullish divergence from oversold levels...

Al_Dente wrote:

joe-gamma wrote:[quote="Al_Dente...

Thanks for those links Al!

PAGING KENA:
Boss: weren’t u long MLNX last week way b4 that 30 point gap???

PAGING COBRA: the link to vote for you fell off your "signature." Please post yr VOTE link, thx[/quote]

How do non members plug the King on stockcharts? is it followers or vote?
thx, joe

First chart is of VIX futures (not VIX itself). The divergence I mentioned from a couple of days ago came into play. VIX futures (Sept 12) moved up to touch upper BB. IF the market gaps down on Monday morning, we should see VIX continue to rise. I will be leaning short. If we gap up, there may be some upside left and I will day trade on the long side.

This second chart is of ES futures. There is a very small higher high and a divergence. Again, unless we gap up tomorrow, the trend should be to the downside till the stochastics hit the blue trend line. Will assess at that point.

Cobra wrote:I think AAII extreme is all over the media now, so enough said. The below screenshot is from Bespoke.

Awesome stats!