Cobra's Market View

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Gap up above yesterday's high, so the gap might not be filled.

The Global ES broke the recent range finally, on the upside, good. The breakout consolidated overnight above the breakout point, another good as it makes the breakout solid. Now let's see if bulls can fly into the sky today.

FLY ROBIN FLY

KORS getting strong pre market love from a strong beat...

Good morning boardies.
I had to go all the way back to 2005 on the weekly, to find an (inverted) $VXN higher than yesterday’s. See pink on the top panel.
EIGHT years !!!! Don’t even try to tell me it’s opex roll contango.
It won’t flash a sell signal until it turns down BELOW the signal line.

Total volume, for real, NYTV

The VIX does not matter. It''s a broken indicator.

Nothing broken about the $VIX

retail sales ex autos +0.8% vs est of +0.4%. last month revised from -0.4% to -0.8%.

if i tell you that next month sales will be 99 vs this month at 90, then you expect +10%. then next month comes in at 99 and i say, "actually last month was really 85" thus producing a +15% m/m gain and you say, "hot damn, strong numbers!!"

so the actual $ of retail sales was exactly as expected. but it's a beat. and the best part is it works. the market - people - really *are* that dumb

Al_Dente wrote:Good morning boardies.
I had to go all the way back to 2005 on the weekly, to find an (inverted) $VXN higher than yesterday’s. See pink on the top panel.
EIGHT years !!!! Don’t even try to tell me it’s opex roll contango.
It won’t flash a sell signal until it turns down BELOW the signal line.

814vxn.png

Great chart Al! Thanks for sharing!

Momentum is with the bulls. Yesterday AM I had 5 sells of which three were in the currency pairs which in my experience are leading indicator. However, they all started to turn positive in the afternoon and moved to buy side overnight.
Al,
All VIXIES are in BUY mode. Also, I added VXO to the list.

Al_Dente wrote:Total volume, for real, NYTV

814volume.png

zerohedge noted the drop in volume started when the knight capital algo shutdown, so this could be just an HFT related phenomena.

AUD and gold are telling a different story from everything else.
if they keep falling, we should see a red spx

There is a lot of talk about the VIX etc..The Vix is still good..You all may not remember but a very few weeks ago I posted info on the vix from a write up on the vix and stating it is expected to go to 12..We are just about there.So this does not suprise me.In a few days matbe we can watch it go up???????

the open.

Harapa wrote:Momentum is with the bulls. Yesterday AM I had 5 sells of which three were in the currency pairs which in my experience are leading indicator. However, they all started to turn positive in the afternoon and moved to buy side overnight.
Al,
All VIXIES are in BUY mode. Also, I added VXO to the list.

The last time you showed that chart, emerging markets were a sell. Emerging markets have been outperforming IWM for more than 4 weeks

Fill the GAP !!!

ClarkW wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Good morning boardies.
I had to go all the way back to 2005 on the weekly, to find an (inverted) $VXN higher than yesterday’s. See pink on the top panel.
EIGHT years !!!! Don’t even try to tell me it’s opex roll contango.
It won’t flash a sell signal until it turns down BELOW the signal line.

814vxn.png

Great chart Al! Thanks for sharing!

+1. very firm noodles indeed.

we finally gapped up - does that mean the uptrend can finally correct? maybe

rc1269 wrote:we finally gapped up - does that mean the uptrend can finally correct? maybe

considering history + uncountable Cobra's statistics + divergences + extremes, a final gap up is possible the missing piece to begin a healthy correction.

Of course, nothing is for sure.

ocassional observer wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Total volume, for real, NYTV

814volume.png

zerohedge noted the drop in volume started when the knight capital algo shutdown, so this could be just an HFT related phenomena.

it is not HFT related. There is not a lot of institutional trading going on - mostly just trimming around legacy positions. Whatever trading is going on is going to the bulge brackets mostly b/c they want to get the research.