Cobra's Market View

Down 1 week, the next week has 59% chances to close up.

Over the weekend, please take a moment to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Very interesting finish to such a bearish day. Have a great weekend everyone!

grandeG wrote: ↑Fri Mar 28, 2025 6:19 pm Very interesting finish to such a bearish day. Have a great weekend everyone!

Don't see anything special for the finish today?

te_fern wrote: ↑Fri Mar 28, 2025 6:10 pm Over the weekend, please take a moment to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Thanks.

SPY daily.

Huge marubozu down candle on heavy volume.

The EMAs 20, 50 and 100 are in consistent order, and all pointing down.

Sto is down.

MACD is turning down.

Looking at a possible test of the bottom next week.

Anything positive? Well the bulls will be snapping up bargains.

Thank you, Cobra and the Board. Many of you were spot on, and my thanks again to jademann for the posts of last weekend.

I think Cobra's weekend update above has a good chance to be right.
There were chatters around some community conversations about all this volatility and possible market manipulations.
So, it's not hard to imagine a rebound, or even a mother of all short squeeze that would be rewarding to some people.

As of EOD March 28, Joanne Klein's chart showed SPY closed at EMA(250)
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=SPY&p ... 3753&r=550

Last week, Erin Swenlin wrote: Sentiment is extremely bearish on AAII and typically this will lead to a sustained rally.
However, we have to understand that sometimes the respondents are correct and we'll see more downside after all.


GLTA

"It is what it is department"Price action anyone? from ATH to current leg down, what is known? resistance at 38.2%, what is unknown will the gap fill at the bottom give a kiss of support or down we go? Fear? a little, we need to see blood on the street like in November >1.2, a little more selling will put the public into a panic mode. Swing setup: rip will be sold, keep it simple. Intraday: bulls need a lot to repair here. negative however you slice it.The range is clear where we are. Trade well, only price pays. Peace!

From Smashelito's free X feed-
For this week, the main focus will be on whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Friday’s triple distribution trend day, which ultimately established an outside week to the downside after traversing and breaking the previous week’s range. A weak market would sustain downside pressure by remaining below the 5662 level, keeping the inventory from the past two weeks trapped and opening the door for a revisit of the March 13th low. Failure to do so would set the stage for structural fills of Friday’s poor structure, which is clearly visible on last week’s volume profile. Sellers remain in short-term control, and only acceptance back within last week’s value area has the potential to shift that dynamic.

The weekly Smashlevel is 5662, representing Friday’s initial balance low (IBL), aligning with the lower end of the prior week. Break and hold above 5662 would target technical fills of Friday’s poor structure toward 5706. Acceptance above 5706 signals strength, targeting the resistance area from 5760 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5790, where selling activity can be expected. For any potential shift in the bigger picture, buyers would need to break and hold above the Weekly Extreme High, ideally confirmed by a weekly close above it.

Holding below 5662 would target Friday’s low at 5617. Break and hold below 5617 would target the 10% correction level at 5550. Acceptance below 5550 signals weakness, targeting the support area from 5480 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5450, where buying activity can be expected. Additionally, there is an unfilled gap at 5396.75.

As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!

Another free bee. Gives us a hint as to where the big guns will be trying to pin the market for month and quarter end options expire.

This free bee is from the Bank of America weekly missive. It is the fund managers survey asking who is overweight the market.

My personal interpretation. We are all running to the other side of the boat because the Mag 7 era may be ending.