04/25/2025 Live Update

[Cobra]

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The pullback overnight probably will be bought as it's the very first touch of EMA20 in awhile.

[JFR]

ES daily.

Down a bit from yesterday's "close."

A doji so far today. Not up. Not down.

Above the EMA 20.

The market is uber resistant. Chaos cannot put a stake through its heart, or so it seems.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

In a trading range for a handful of hours.

Down from the previous range.

Hanging on to the EMA 20.

It might look like it wants to ease lower, but ... Just play your charts.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Down since midnight.

Sideways. In a range for two hours.

Needs to break out.

[JFR]

And then there is this ...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deuts ... =home_lead

Deutsche Bank sees major trouble ahead for the U.S. dollar

“Our view on all these factors is that the preconditions are now in place for the beginning of a major dollar downtrend,” they wrote.

For now, investors appeared to be taking a breather from tariff-driven volatility and pinning their hopes on a so-called Trump put, in which President Donald Trump can continue to soften his stance on trade policies in order to support financial markets. All three major U.S. stock indexes finished higher for a third straight session on Thursday, while U.S. government debt rallied amid broad-based demand for Treasurys.

Meanwhile, the dollar continued to weaken against its major competitors. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against a basket of six rivals, fell 0.6% to a three-year low of 99.27 — bringing its year-to-date decline to 8%. Part of the currency’s problem may be that any comprehensive trade deal between the U.S. and China could take two or three years to happen, based on a timeline provided two days ago by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

[grandeG]

Thank you, JFR and Cobra for the early morning analysis! Always super helpful to read your thoughts and get an understanding of what you might be thinking. Have a great day!

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Trying for a breakout.

Needs more evidence.

Back later ...

[Trades w 2 Cats]

That seems to have been the U of M consumer poll coming in better than expected.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:07 am
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Second attempt failure at breaking out above 5524.

Bar down to the EMA 20.

Lower high on the attempt.

Looking like a range day, but ya never know moment to moment. You keep making readings.

A discouraged guy at the coffee shop asked how often do you have to watch. Daytrading, every minute. Swing trading, each day or slightly more often.

Later ...

Uh oh ...

Testing down beneath key support.

Later ...

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Shows the air pocket we hit. Can't find any news to explain it.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:17 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Clear breakout so maybe bias is up now.

[Cobra]

Don't know whether the rebound means the pullback was over or not, normally should be another leg down.

[grandeG]

Hahaha… talk about keeping your head on a swivel! Need to sign off early. Taking the kiddos to Stagecoach. Much love and appreciation for all of your shared ideas. Have a great weekend everyone!

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Going into the weekend I just want to point out that we are hovering around the 50% retracement level. I will also say that the wave count on here looks OK but is always subject to what the market decides to do.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

I should add it (the longer term chart) does highlight what a battleground this level has been this year.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Europeans have been the major sellers of US equities compared to other regions. But here we are with the London market hitting the bid hard last night and US traders doing the same to a lessor degree. The bulls will be all about Marty Zwieg's indicator and strong negative sentiment and 80 and 90 percent up volume days to exhort us to buy this dip.

Current White House has made it very dangerous to expect a continued trend on Monday because they always seem to walk back their prior commentary. The one trading advantage of Pacific Time is being able to look at the Asian market on Sunday night without staying up into the wee hours.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:32 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:50 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/