https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... s-analysis
Think of it as a four-act play.
It opens with a threat. This typically takes place at an unusual hour, on Truth Social, the president’s fringe social network, and prompts immediate warnings from countries and companies affected.
Then comes the imposition. Trump ignores the warnings, enforces the tariffs, claims they will raise billions, and sends out his closest allies and officials to defiantly explain why this is a strategic masterstroke, despite widespread concern.
Then the panic. Stock markets wobble. Businesses balk. Consumers grow anxious. The administration starts to waver, trailing exemptions and hinting at light at the end of the tunnel, even as Trump plays down the impact of his actions.
And then, the backtrack. This is also often revealed on Truth Social, before Trump again sends out his closest allies and officials to defiantly explain why this, too, is a strategic masterstroke.
This final stage is almost always presented as a bold negotiating breakthrough – like a “total reset” with China, or a supposed influx of countries seeking trade deals with the US – regardless of the facts.
Every performance is unique, of course. The cast rotates. You’re never quite sure how long each act will last. But so far, time and again, the script has followed the same arc.
The EU will draw up plans to retaliate. Trump will be urged to reconsider. At first, he will publicly dismiss such calls. And then …
How many times can you sit through the same show? On Wall Street, some investors appear to be wondering just how seriously they should be taking Trump on tariffs.
