Cobra's Market View

Begin with institutional accumulation and distribution from stocktiming. Despite SPY up every day this week and almost hit the multi-year new high, it looks like not much institutional accumulation here.

liquidity chart from stocktiming. Still I cannot believe for a never ever would drop market, the liquidity is not at the highest level yet. Either this rally is still in the early stage or this rally is weaker than before.

Smart Monday still huge short especially on INDU. Covered a little on NDX and by the way, this is way NDX is weaker.

I read the chart as bearish. Yes, smart money huge short may mean they're actually long, but if those smart guys think the long is safe, why bother huge hedge? It's not without cost to hedge. So something is going on.

Retailers and Newsletter writers aren't too bullish yet. really strange, isn't this market supposed to never ever drop?

my question still is: why XLP and XLV outperforms SPY? Aren't they defensive sectors?

last weeks stock picks were not bad, lots of breakouts.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=687&p=98751#p98751

I've posted this chart on Cobra's daily update and I'm posting it here too. It's for visitors who can't afford the $$ Cobra asks for from his "paying members", I want them to make big money so they can easily buy a subscription

Cobra's blog/forum have a slightly bearish overtone at the moment, my best guess is that it's because of the VIX. I'm less focussed on VIX, try to focus on SPX patterns. Chart suggests that unless SPX 1452 is broken to the downside next week this market is still a bull

Alright, I'm hoping this could be a huge learning experience for me and many other Cobra-ites who are not familar with Elliott Wave Theory. Not ashamed to admit I know VERY LITTLE about Elliott Wave Theory so putting up my very basic, first attempt at something that remotely resembles it. My basic knowledge found from http://www.stockcharts.com's definition page http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... ave_theory

Based on my basic (too basic I know, not ashamed...trying to learn) it appears $NATGAS has completed 5th wave and ready for a pullback. This along with ChiOsc at the highest point I can find on the daily (going back to 1993 on stockcharts.com) has me looking to go long KOLD or DGAZ but NO POSITION YET, try to stay patient as these leveraged funds can rip your face off.

NOT A RECOMMENDATION (although my above confession for little EWT knowledge can tell you that)

IF I'M WAY OFF BASE, DON'T BE AFRAID TO TELL ME, THAT'S WHAT I WANT TO KNOW

Cobra wrote:last weeks stock picks were not bad, lots of breakouts.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=687&p=98751#p98751

Great job on the stocks, Cobra! I didn't enter any positions but monitored then and a couple, GEN, WNR and GRFS peaked my interest. They've all done very well. Before you mentioned trying to stay away from biotechs. The only one that did poorly (from what I can see) is DSCO which falls into that category, those are always a tough nut to crack.

Thanks for everything Cobra!

ClarkW wrote:

Cobra wrote:last weeks stock picks were not bad, lots of breakouts.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=687&p=98751#p98751

Great job on the stocks, Cobra! I didn't enter any positions but monitored then and a couple, GEN, WNR and GRFS peaked my interest. They've all done very well. Before you mentioned trying to stay away from biotechs. The only one that did poorly (from what I can see) is DSCO which falls into that category, those are always a tough nut to crack.

Thanks for everything Cobra!

Thanks.

Cobra wrote:liquidity chart from stocktiming. Still I cannot believe for a never ever would drop market, the liquidity is not at the highest level yet. Either this rally is still in the early stage or this rally is weaker than before.

THAT IS THEEEEEE QUESTION from Da King, so what is the answer?
from foot mouth Larew: last major top had slight downtick, then revisit, then big down....seems this or next week should see more clarity if dbl top in these candles and week renko are now....

Cobra wrote:. Either this rally is still in the early stage or this rally is weaker than before.

seems much weaker than prior rallies (defensive sectors rich and most long only funds are hedged).
Yet BullPercent big caps is not overdone relative to broader market BP.....failure for new highs in Nasi and Nysi (THANKS Mr Bach!) should be watched for a few weeks

nondenominational and nonpartisan, But it is what it is
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-0 ... ecord-high

How 'bout a Song to seranade the saturday speculations:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOJHSrxH ... re=related

Keep on huggin'

ClarkW wrote:DON'T BE AFRAID TO TELL ME, THAT'S WHAT I WANT TO KNOW

"Wave 4 never moves beyond the end of wave 1." (EWP, 86)
It's most common for wave 3 to correspond to the RSI peak, creating a divergence in wave 5.

ZimZeb wrote:Keep on huggin'

The attachment dvyspxew100612w.png is no longer available

Thanks for the view Mr Obushney

maybe not Monday, but without broader participation by nya, smalls, and discretionary sector, seems prices will be doing this sometime in next few months:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgsC1WlAzWE

ZimZeb wrote:

ClarkW wrote:DON'T BE AFRAID TO TELL ME, THAT'S WHAT I WANT TO KNOW

"Wave 4 never moves beyond the end of wave 1." (EWP, 86)
It's most common for wave 3 to correspond to the RSI peak, creating a divergence in wave 5.

Thank you ZimZeb! That's the kind of response I was wanting. Great to know.

And yes...your picture is still freaky

Update of SKEW index chart from last week suggests a high of some type may be close.
Since 2009, high levels of SKEW have coincided with highs in equities. (If you don't know what it is, google it.)
Anecdotally, when the Friday close of an elevated SKEW has fallen below its 4 week MA, a weekly closing high of SPX was either in or followed in the next two weeks. See circles.
Failures occurred in uninterrupted strong trends, which this trend is not.
This is an interpretive study and not statistically significant, so beware, but it does have that "it's working" look about it. Though I could be guilty of seeing what I want to see.
Also, could turn back up next week so need to watch it.
Anyway, I'll be top hunting in the days ahead.

joe-gamma wrote:nondenominational and nonpartisan, But it is what it is
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-0 ... ecord-high

How 'bout a Song to seranade the saturday speculations:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOJHSrxH ... re=related

Joe, as to zerohedge - do you know what happened Friday? Jack Welch (ex CEO GE), who is almost senile, says Friday's employment report is a conspiracy. And zerohedge made similar claims. People who make wild allegations about statistics without knowing how they are compiled are totally negligible. They remind me of guys who say that evolution is a lie straight from the pit of Hell. Shouting out nonsense does not boost credibility in any field.

I’ll not be bearish unless this one does a surprise reversal.
It looks like it is on its way down to test the 200sma support, which may or may not hold.
Elliot Wavers should be all over this chart.