Cobra's Market View

Down 1 week, the next week has 60% chances to close up.

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

That was one hell of a beat down on Friday. Clearly with geo political concerns, crypto market collapse, and a few other items there should be plenty of reason to be cautious here. I took a look at a longer term chart. Went all the way back to January 27th to get a broader point of view of that chart. We could be looking at a significant retracement in the coming weeks or months. As always take what I say with a grain of salt. Have a great weekend everyone!

"It is what it is Department "`two days ago we have a bubble and over bought market, one day ago we had an expected correction, and now the chicken little is all suddendly supprised again.

Stick to what you know. my little piggy brain will let the chart speaks.

Daily trend following setup: we are entering buy the dip zone, RSI(5) > 30 = Triggered as usual, patience, react, and don't predict. Short term support (RTH) is clear, the buffer zone will tell us bulls or bears will have and upper hand in days to come. chop zone. Intraday: this is too bearish to have a good word for bulls. after market droped more like 50 points, on sunday night, the pajama traders must buy this up over 50 points just to get back in the range, this will be tough, but if they can, it will be very bullish and bottom of sort could be in......Trade well, risk management will be a big reward going into high volatility week. It's day traders' heaven. Peace!

Daily showing the 5 waves up for minor degree from April low.
Closeup showing the 5 wave minute degree that makes up the 5th wave of the minor sequence. You can see the overlap of the prior waves which says clearly this five wave sequence has ended.

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This is the 60 minute S&P. I don't pay for the SPX so this substitutes. The 5th waves of lower degree could have gone a bit higher but the overlap with the magenta and the reversal has been sitting as the alternate count for several days. The fact that we overlapped at several degrees means we don't have to sit around wondering if its over or not.

Of course in three weeks if they announce a deal and everybody is drinking shots of fire water for the cameras then someone smarter than me will come up with a new count. That is the great part about wave counting, it is an excellent way to document the past but a slipper thing for forecasting the future.

Anyway, this drop at this point says we are likely to have a multi-month zig zag down with high volatility retracing a good chunk of the AI bull market.

SPY daily.

Aiyahh.

It has our attention.

Down through the EMA 20, almost to the EMA 50.

Huge marubozu.

Reading the chart, and also the clouds, the political winds, the moods of the trading public, et cetera ...

It was flat for 6 days. But, beneath the calm, there is always pent up anxiety, about the economy, the state of the world, politics, wars, how to protect wealth, speculation, on and on ... It's not your father's world with relative calm.

People are ready to dump stocks at a moment's notice, myself included. Gold is up big time.

This move on Friday is no surprise. Buffett's holding period of ''forever'' is giving way to a daytrade mentality.

Bitcoin? No backing. No support. No one to call. Pure speculation. Can you easily use it to buy everyday stuff? Is it the future? It will be a part of it.

So, expect extreme volatility at the end of trading ranges. Be a daytrader. Use ETFs. Buy value with targets and stops. Be adaptable. Trade the charts, with technical analysis. Stay with safer stuff. Take your profits, and only re-buy when it is indicated on the chart.

From this chart ... Go all in long, expecting a bottom? Nope. Sell short? Sure, as day trades. Long ... wait for clear trend indication. Read the EMAs, etc.

OK, I'm done. This is just a follow up and extension to chats I have in coffee shops with friends, or sessions at my desktop with those in my orbit. And Cobra's forum is as public as I get.

The postmortems are in on bit coin. A large player triggered it before the Chinese news. It was a fine job of manipulating the market. They started a fire by dumping a very large sell order. As things went down hill the opened massive short positions helping to destabilize the crashing market. The they covered around the bottom. Estimated gain of around 200 million in return on a 19 billion market liquidation.

The after hours leg down on the ES could have easily been the options houses hedging puts.

We have already had a 100% reversal from the White House as expected.

Chart watchers are pointing out that this size of a drop within a day or two of an all time high has happened 10 or so times sine the 1030's. Every time the market was up within 2 and a half months.

Here is the chart for drops of Friday's size following a new high.