Cobra's Market View

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The 4 bars rebound looks like a bear flag so bias is down.

Waiting for Micron, they will either put the fire out or pour on gasoline.

Apparently Larry Ellison is going to make Oracle a sole proprietor, just Larry and the Algos.

S&P 500 showing a plausible count and the gaps.

If we are in a three down it certainly is off to a good start with 1 of 3 closing a massive gap up and 3 of 3 creating a new one. Of course with the right catalyst we could be at new all time highs at any time. Especially with Microsoft in a technical bear market and zero hedge calling them the lag 7. Check out net flix.

Of course the ES has a bull count. It can drop more and still be a wave 2 down. This is the count that needs something to move the bulls into a violent wave three up to new all time highs.

It's a morning hourly hollow red

Today the volume profile is pointing out a bunch of low volume nodes that make it clear that a retrace above 50% should not need much buying. But we are reminded that all the major funds are doing their quarterly re balancing and I have not seen if that means selling or buying stocks.

Move is stalling out. Just before the low volume nodes.

I did not know that semi conductors are now 18% of the market capitalization. I do not know if they are included as a part of AI which is supposedly over 30%.

Lower high confirmed. Fearful market.

Space X options positions.
They borrowed 20 billion. Cathy Woods is buying the dip. Everyone who bought it is now under water.

The pullback probably will be bought, bulls will try to break the EMA20 again.

Resistance level is now clear.

MW.

Aiyahh!

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water.

Oops. Those days are gone. Volatility, that is your name.

MW

This is when wish you were in is better than wish you were out or wish you were in since last year (after the fact).

SPY 5 minutes.

A little roller coaster.

Intraday: new swing low, it is bearish bias. there is >60% we will settle and go sideways from here. a trade under the red will resume the down trend intraday trade. damage has been done today, it will take a lot of bull energy to calm the market atm.

Consolidation, breakout on the upside is more likely so probably the low was in for today.

They moved it above VWAP but are stuck at the VPOC for the regular hours session.

All they need to do is break into the low volume above today's high and the overnight sell off will be behind us. Waiting to see conviction from the buyers. Besides quarterly end re balancing buybacks are shutting down for the black out before earnings. After earnings there will be fewer buybacks as the AI crowd is spending cash on data centers not share holders. Have to be asking if the retail crowd will step up to replace that stream of new money coming into the market especially given the hawk look from the Fed.