Cobra's Market View

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Big gap down but within Friday's range, so not sure whether the gap will be filled or not.

I see 3 Push Up on the Global ES, so perhaps it's time for a 2 legged pullback, we're on the very first down leg now.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/01 ... ay-update/

the week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=787&p=112324#p112324

Q&A: CREE not bad, looks like a consolidation before a breakout on the upside.

I want to short SPY but it just doesn't feel right yet. .....YET.

the open.

Cobra wrote:Q&A: CREE not bad, looks like a consolidation before a breakout on the upside.

Not looking so good with the latest candle......

No guts no glory. I went short SPY last Friday.

Out of Bounds wrote:I want to short SPY but it just doesn't feel right yet. .....YET.

I really wanted to do that. I just couldn't because I saw some signals flicker 'buy' and the fog was too thick. Even now, the bear looks clearer but still not clear enough. Waiting to break below some support.

Quiet so far ...

Cobra wrote:members only update at 9:47am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/01 ... ay-update/

Well, if you say so. Never fight snake. You can fight Fed, but not snake.

just want to remind you the current TLT low is very important, breakdown would be bear market for bond. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /187372788;

Cobra wrote:just want to remind you the current TLT low is very important, breakdown would be bear market for bond. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /187372788;

Cobra, is a bear bond market good for the equity market?

Light long.

I re-established a long equity position Friday to honor my summation index signal.
I kept the size small. Depending on how things go this week, I could buy a dip or not to add table stakes.
I could also close it out as I don't really like this trade.
The risk/return ratio does not look great to me here as there is limited upside into resistance with plenty of downside.

It seems to me that the end of this up trend may be near, but SPX may want to make a run at tagging 1500 (which could fail) before pooping out.

My composite trend indicator signal is up.
My summation index signal is up.

Ed02 wrote:

Cobra wrote:just want to remind you the current TLT low is very important, breakdown would be bear market for bond. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /187372788;

Cobra, is a bear bond market good for the equity market?

that's a major point of debate right now. i would counter that question with another simple one: has the recent bull market in bonds coincided with a bull market in equities?

I Think there are 2 factors driving equities: Falling rates, and earnings growth, rates can rise until the risk free rate jumps above avg. dividend yield, so I think a quick sharp rise in rates is certainly not good for equities

SPY and TLT ... one year