Cobra's Market View

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Small gap down within yesterday's range, so the gap might be filled.

Key time on Global ES, if the current rebound cannot make a decisive new high then finally we may see a pullback of some kind. Watch breakdown below the thick blue line to confirm. On the other hand, Triple Top was rare so if the current rebound can touch the blue line above, then chances are it'd break above.

Look's like we gonna to the 1500 without pullback

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/01 ... ay-update/

Momentum Block
Global Equity Futures: Bullish except DAX, Price is the King
Key Currency Pairs: Bearish, suggest more chop ahead

Does anyone have any concise summary of earnings reports that have come out in the past 24 hours or so? Thanks.

I like this chart - shows the status beautifully: long term and short term resistance overhead (the markets are wildly overbought), but momentum power, liquidity and fundamentals pushing upwards from below

I was looking back at some of my old charts last night and found this very long term chart.
Looks like the lines in the sand are still holding but the squeeze is on.
The blue line is blue until it's not.
Below is a 20yr chart and a close up at 5yr

the open. Noted that the equal weighted SPX actually gaps up! maybe this market indeed will never ever pullback anymore.

We just have to buy the low hehe, easy money.

as we all sit staring with our mouths open...

Update:

Cobra wrote:the open. Noted that the equal weighted SPX actually gaps up! maybe this market indeed will never ever pullback anymore.

exactly. seems like charting only works for upside trends, I'm now thinking you can't use any chart indicator to pin a downside move... it just doesn't happen.

aaii sentiment up 8 more points this week:

Survey Results

Sentiment Survey
Results
Week ending 1/23/2013
Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in the next 6 months.

Bullish 52.3%
up 8.4
Neutral 23.4%
down 5.3
Bearish 24.3%
down 3.1
Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Change from last week:
Bullish: +8.4
Neutral: -5.3
Bearish: -3.1


Long-Term Average:
Bullish: 39.0%
Neutral: 30.5%
Bearish: 30.5%

VIX and More wrote something that's very interesting a couple of days ago:

"Today we are seeing a VIX of about 12.50 – the lowest the index has been since June 2007 – and once again investors are grappling for the proper context. Let me throw a new concept into the mix that may help: the inverted percentile VIX, a distant cousin of the inverted VIX. The way to think about the inverted percentile VIX is in terms of the lifetime of VIX values, in which a VIX of 12.50 is in the 12.2 percentile. The inverse of that is the 87.8 percentile, which corresponds with a VIX of 28.67. Now I am guessing that for most investors a VIX of 12.50 feels much lower than a VIX of 28.67 feels high. Statistically they are almost identical in terms of being outliers, so if a 28.67 VIX doesn’t sound like a scary high number, then a VIX of 12.50 should not sound like a scary low number that is reflecting too much complacency.

Investors may wish to consider recalibrating their emotions and expectations or, failing that, take advantage of the relatively low VIX by buying some VIX calls so as to profit when the rest of the world comes to the realization that a VIX in the 12s is making them too nervous. Keep in mind, however, that current 10-day historical volatility of the SPX is in the 5s, so that number would have to double just to be able to support the current level of the VIX going forward."

DeMark wrong on both AAPL and SPX. Too many people expecting a pullback.

uempel wrote:I like this chart - shows the status beautifully: long term and short term resistance overhead (the markets are wildly overbought), but momentum power, liquidity and fundamentals pushing upwards from below

1.png

Great chart Uempel!

Big hand for Harapa, one of the only guys here who got it 100% right

Volume by price doesn't show any support for Apple for awhile, fwiw

Once upon a time, XOM (416 B) was recognized as largest market cap and AAPL ( 432 B)changed that. Let's see if XOM goes back on the top of list again.

I am watching fertalizer stocks, CF, MOS, POT,AGU, CF and related to the same subject CAT.