Cobra's Market View

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Small gap down, within yesterday's range, so the gap might be filled.

The overnight rebound failed to make a higher high, therefore the Global ES is danger of forming a Double Top, say 55% chances. Let's see.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/02 ... ay-update/

Follow up of the short term EWP

http://www.thewavetrading.com/2013/02/2 ... rm-ewp-86/

GM big battle at critical level going on in DAX, very important day there! I see potential bullish setup there but it should fail and if so then look out below

After Doug Kass Tweeted Apple Might Do A Stock Split, He Started Selling His Shares
http://www.businessinsider.com/doug-kas ... res-2013-2

AAPL + ES update. Dow Jones continues to be a leading indicator this week, going to keep an eye on it.

the open. touch the red line above, then we'll see breakout, let's see.

indeed the 3rd touch means breakout. let's see how far can this breakout go. if simply every breakout is real, then trading is so easy, unfortunately it's not the case.

Cobra wrote:indeed the 3rd touch means breakout. let's see how far can this breakout go. if simply every breakout is real, then trading is so easy, unfortunate it's not the case.

What are you looking for to confirm the breakout?

L_T wrote:

Cobra wrote:indeed the 3rd touch means breakout. let's see how far can this breakout go. if simply every breakout is real, then trading is so easy, unfortunate it's not the case.

What are you looking for to confirm the breakout?

Breakout then consolidation above the breakout point.

Breakout and never stop.

So essentially there's no better way to trade breakout. Either you blindly buy all breakout, relying on the long run to win. Or you wait for breakout and consolidation above the breakout point. Or you wait for breakout and pullback to test the breakout point. Either way, you might miss a very important breakout which simply break and run away. It's safer to wait for pullback or consolidation, true, though.

until the blue line is broken and revisited, it's bullish biased.

Cobra wrote:

L_T wrote:

Cobra wrote:indeed the 3rd touch means breakout. let's see how far can this breakout go. if simply every breakout is real, then trading is so easy, unfortunate it's not the case.

What are you looking for to confirm the breakout?

Breakout then consolidation above the breakout point.

Breakout and never stop.

So essentially there's no better way to trade breakout. Either you blindly buy all breakout, relying on the long run to win. Or you wait for breakout and consolidation above the breakout point. Or you wait for breakout and pullback to test the breakout point. Either way, you might miss a very important breakout which simply break and run away. It's safer to wait for pullback or consolidation, true, though.

minor note--cobra's points are certainly true but three other factors may apply. (1) the character of the market--so underling strength and momentum or the emotional feel. so if things are very strong in the direction of the breakout (re jan) it makes more sense to take the breakout 'blindly". (2) or watching put call as a sign of how people are positioned near breakouts--there is nothing more amusing than a huge put call in a low volume market--it feels like levitation. and it seems to break all the rules to really by the book ta guys--the trick is the low volume of trading which allows the puts to hold things up (3) the prior support or resistance near the breakout point--can be a clue in this current case we have 3 days and the daily 20 ema on the daily. using the rule of thumb of 1/2 the time to break overhead that it takes to create it gives no edge. it's certainly possible--but in the qqq we just lost a 3 month trend line and this is only the second try higher.

finally brooks doesn't like breakouts much and argues more for buying the chart action prior to the last part of the move up--and then sort of holding into breakout with a mental stop if the breakout fails. the idea works if you can easily see the area of the breakout--and you can act in advance. another way to look at it is that "the breakout area acts as an attractor--and thus in and of itself can be used prior to the point being hit--then if it works it's a bonus".

finally as cobra has said along with brooks and i got from some people i learned from--an expected or actual move that fails is often a great trade in the reverse direction. so using "rules" as "signals" as opposed to simple minded events.

on another note--there was some dissing of the idea AAPL would do anything different. i can totally understand that--but the fact everyone feels that way does bother me. i see minor changes happening at aapl--and i think larger ones are coming. so i think everything there is more edgy than people seem to think--that is not helping me to handy cap the meeting today esp--but it does balance the view. if trader girl and cobra are correct and aapl has legs then that's interesting from both the view the news though (proposed) market action or that something other than the obvious will play either at or around the gathering.

GDX testing important trendline support

[Now that gold has declined about $200+ over the past five months, Goldman Sachs finally yesterday lowered its gold price target by over $200 an ounce.
GS “…cut its three-month target to $1,615 an ounce from $1,825 and lowered the six- and 12-month forecasts to $1,600 and $1,550 from $1,805 and $1,800…”]

At 50% retracement here..

Could see some end of month buying..

nyadv hits 2000
bulls want to see it hold > 2000

ES broke above my 1503 resistance line. Tables have turned for now.. One more leg still

200 point down day never happened