Cobra's Market View

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Flat open, so any gap will be filled.

Whether it's Double Top or not on the Global ES, we'll have to wait and see. Overall, the chart pattern is bears may have hope pattern but still have hope doesn't mean able to seal a deal, so bears must do something.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/04 ... ay-update/

Excellent recap of all the news this morning: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/. I try to look at this every day while waiting for Cobra to open shop.

Bill McBride is not only a smart guy, but also a really nice person. Probably the best US economic blog

Good article from Peter Brandt on Gold: http://peterlbrandt.com/gold-chart-of-t ... il-3-2013/

Long.
Shorted R2K for a hedge yesterday but covered at the close for a few points. May reload today.

My composite trend signal is up.
My summation index signal is down for the R2K and neutral for everything else. It will flip to negative for the SPX and NDQ on a break of Monday's low or a close below yesterday's low.

Sticking to hit and run hedging tactics for now as we climb higher into the thin air.
I would like to be getting neutral or short here and holding (particularly given the state of my summation signal) but fighting this trend has been a loser. Timid bear...
Oddly, my McClellan Oscillator data has been negative long enough to start looking for a rebound. In fact, any kind of sizeable down day would probably render it oversold.

Tomorrow and Friday could be movers one way or another or both.
We have 3 central bank policy updates (BoJ, BoE and ECB). I am most interested in what Japan does.
Also, I think Friday is a non-farm payroll day.
I have no clue what the news will be or how the market may react to the news.
I'll probably go in to it net long with some protective stops.

Dow count from yesterday...

Long here 157

Out of Bounds wrote:Long here 157

Watching here and will porbably scale in more long. - maybe

GLD opened at 78.6 retrace from feb 21st bottom and 88.6 retrace from mar 8 bottom.

as long as this pullback doesn't break too much yesterday's low, bulls are ok.

Reminder: P-BAR from yesterday at $156.05 for SPY. 156.97 tagged this morning in the regular session.

added longs 156.62

charts are pointed down today, thought we would get a higher high at least in dow but looks like not happening..

FInancials substantially underperforming.

$DOW: The pattern is suggesting the large ED project

I was way too early - holding longs, still above support levels so bulls are holding.

expanding wedges are bearish....

not a valid breakdown of yesterday's low yet, wait.

Out of Bounds wrote:I was way too early - holding longs, still above support levels so bulls are holding.

Crap. taking the loss