04/01/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

Gap up open at new recovery high but since this is NFP day, so I don't know if we'll see a typical open high go lower pattern as usual. At the moment, oil is strong though, guess now everything goes green, so oil price doesn't matter anymore. Anyway, as posted last night, http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/20 ... rried.html, retailers may be too bullish, just a reminder.

Institutional Actions from stocktiming.

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[thelefteyeguy]

april fools for Bears...better cover

[cletus]

Gap looks good for several more points higher at least for the bullish breakout. The key reversal levels to watch are:

Dow prior high resistance: 12,391 (+73 pts)

S&P 88.6% retracement: 1333 (+8 pts)

Gap is putting them right at those levels, BUT, the S&P has to close above 1333 to fulfill DOW leads, so I guess even a gap fill today could be buyable since that close is still due. Probably will need to hedge long right here if gap shows no sign of filling today. However, throughout this whole rally, there has yet to be a runaway gap where the market gapped up, didn't fill the gap and closed near the strongest levels of the session at the close (which seems bearish to me).

I have personally never seen a sustainable rally that didn't start out with a few runaway gap days, but that doesn't mean this rally can't keep going for awhile longer.

[Travelfrog]

SPX trading at 1333 at present above previous high. Do you think we will get a pullback to yesterdays range high 1330 on open?

[Cobra]

SPX trading at 1333 at present above previous high. Do you think we will get a pullback to yesterdays range high 1330 on open?

No idea. Right now it looks like it won't.

[99er]

Morning.

We're going to the moon!*
/ES: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/es_01.html

*April 1st.

[cletus]

At this moment, the Dow is poised to open at new yearly highs, which means a break above S&P 1344 is guaranteed. Unless there's a big reversal, guess shorts better hedge here.

[Travelfrog]

Morning.

We're going to the moon!*
/ES: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/es_01.html

*April 1st.

Morning 99er,

Don't understand you chart. Where is the upside target because it looks like we will open above your upper pink line?

[KENA]

The bullish % for the NYSE moved up but is still needs 1.5 up points to go into X's.Untill it moves into X"S it can reverse quickly and head down but once in X"S it will continue up for a few weeks.The S&P,NDX and BP World have now changed to X"S so mkt is getting better.I have been following Point & Figure charts for quite sometime and they do tell a good story. I'm not good at Posting and making charts like a lot of you guys but I can pass on what I find out or what I think.(be it little) Looks like I will be selling my protective Put near the open. Wait and see.

[agnosia]

no worries about oil.. it dropped like a rock w/ the dollar rise. first they had to squeeze the weak shorts up to new highs /cl market is fun to trade.

[stocksage]

Again, Bears getting killed. Can only warn them for so long.

[cletus]

Dow futures pulled back a bit but right at resistance. All it will take is tiny bit of intraday buying to push it to new highs.

[stocksage]

no worries about oil.. it dropped like a rock w/ the dollar rise. first they had to squeeze the weak shorts up to new highs /cl market is fun to trade.

Agree, time to start to build an oil short position.

[cletus]

This principle might not apply to today's gap, but one warning about what I see in the futures is that often time after hours and pre-market futures trading is completely driven by low volume amateur trades. This means any new high or breakout should be treated with skepticism until there is intraday confirmation of the breakout (like high volume buying).

Just something good to know for future reference, probably doesn't apply today.

[Cobra]

The open.

[Cobra]

no worries about oil.. it dropped like a rock w/ the dollar rise. first they had to squeeze the weak shorts up to new highs /cl market is fun to trade.

if there's QE3, oil will keep rising so as all the other commodities. Even without QE3, I suspect oil may keep rising too.

[cletus]

Huge drop in Dow futures, looks pretty bad to me

S&P high so far 1,333.63 (exactly 88.6% retracement)

[stocksage]

no worries about oil.. it dropped like a rock w/ the dollar rise. first they had to squeeze the weak shorts up to new highs /cl market is fun to trade.

if there's QE3, oil will keep rising so as all the other commodities. Even without QE3, I suspect oil may keep rising too.

doubt it, last time oil spiked it killed the economy and prices crashed.

[Dow Trader]

Shorted the open

[Dow Trader]

Shorted Russell 2000 at the open with target yesturday's low