Cobra's Market View

Start with algo from stocktiming.

It's not oversold yet, even not as oversold as the last time although the pullback is larger this time, so I read the chart as more down ahead.

Institutional buying and selling action from stocktiming shows institutions are in distribution.

II still is bullish while AAII is bearish. Interesting.

smart money still huge short.

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=887&p=127740#p127740

stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=894&p=127742#p127742

Some charts are self-explanatory. This one doesn't necessarily help the short term trader, but it does indicate that the recent equity rally is coming to an end

This week copper broke the neckline of a long term Head & Shoulders.
Known as “Dr. Copper” because it has a high correlation with industrial activity, copper has also called a few tops and bottoms in SPX via positive and negative divergence, as shown.
Yesterday’s Copper COT shows a bounce in the “large speculators” commitment

YTD year-to-date sector performance:
Best = the defensives. Worst = materials and tech. SPY is blue in the middle.
[Courtesy Bespoke]

“The deficit of one sector must emerge as the surplus in another”
Record corporate profits overlaid on INVERTED govt + household savings/GDP
“Changes in government and household savings lead changes in corporate profits. Even without significant mean reversion in margins,
we should already anticipate weak profit growth in the immediate future “
[Source: John Hussman’s presentation at the Wine Country Investment Conference, 4/5/13]

a lot of people miss this last point regarding the relation between government deficit and public savings as drivers for profit margins. since deficits are going down, and savings are already very low, only revenue growth could drive profit growth. but where would that revenue come from in this environment?

I'm back.

uempel wrote:Some charts are self-explanatory. This one doesn't necessarily help the short term trader, but it does indicate that the recent equity rally is coming to an end

SPXGold.png

Great chart. TY!

Put to Call Ratios ($CPC and $CPCE) indicate that we may be near some kind of bottom here, as options traders have been buying too many puts…
$CPCI (index options = smart money?) does not agree…
I believe there are more puts to be bought, but 2 of the 3 charts suggest we may see interim bounces...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GT_H-Cz3v8Y

http://vk.com/doc23843671_174909441?has ... 8de9&wnd=1

the weekly bar on spx has a very big chance to mean reversal on weekly basis. tick was negative on friday with spx at +0,88%
H&S on bund
USD/CAD is ready to break the neck the next week imo, long term up-trend on dollar, there is also a very big H&S on euro/usd with a target at about 1,18 :
USD/JPY should go a bit down imo

Shaca, where do you see a broadening formation? SPX?
Now my eyes are lousy, but it looks as though you are totally blind Hey, the market might be down the next few days, but not due to any invisible megaphone. And let's not forget that inverted H&S, which is bullish for 1572.

shaca wrote:the weekly bar on spx has a very big chance to mean reversal on weekly basis. tick was negative on friday with spx at +0,88%
H&S on bund
USD/CAD is ready to break the neck the next week imo, long term up-trend on dollar, there is also a very big H&S on euro/usd with a target at about 1,18 :
USD/JPY should go a bit down imo

FWIW Ray Merriman has bullish move up to 26th,we will see how astros turnout

Dax : BT nearing completion / or already completed...will see what happens next week but I am more interested in longs atm

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=878&p=125412#p125412
R2K: first ZZ likely done, question is if we are working on a connector (B) /more likely/ or current correction is done

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=891&p=127331#p127331
IWM: same here ES/SPX: either done or one more leg down before bounce/new highs - It wouldn't suprised me as too many people are watching HnS and that's no good, market is biatch
GS: could be in 4th wave of C, structure from the highs is corrective = I am expecting at least one more high after current decline

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=879&p=125650#p125650 (last chart)

---------------peace--------------

A partial retracement to the FLD and subsequent drop is expected next in the SPX Hurst Analysis. Also Nasdaq, Euro, Gold, 30 yr Bond, Crude & US$ covered.

http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading ... pril-2013/