Cobra's Market View

Mr. BachNut wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:October low just pierced.

On the index not the future.
Another 10 handles for that.

Now pierced on the future too.

This chart seems worth an update.
A blip on the radar is starting to look like it has potential.
Perhaps we get a bounce to form a right shoulder to a H&S pattern, but that may be too pat.
Something unexpected more likely...

Mr. BachNut wrote:October low just pierced.

On the index not the future.
Another 10 handles for that.

October low just pierced.
gulp.

Let's see what happens after stops get collected.

A few comments: NYMO is presently lodged in the Oversold Zone. This is fairly rare. What lies ahead? Generally, a low of some kind is due. It may be temporary or a true low. However, sometimes you get a waterfall. :shock: It is counterintuitive, but crashy times can emerge from oversold states. With...

NYMO is down in the lower Turn Zone, and the Oversold Zone is coming into view. It has been a long time since NYMO has had an oversold zone tag. Price has been closing down gaps and opening up gaps. We have taken care of some unfinished business by tagging a stranded NYMO benchmark at SPX 4438.26. H...

Looks like the NYMO cycle will be finally confirming down today. As mentioned in last post the McClellan Oscillator calculations for the SPX and R2K turned down a while ago. So, the NYSE has been a laggard for some reason. Notably, we have been in this down cycle all year so far. Price has made a lo...

Mr. B reporting in... Been a little busy lately. The NYMO cycle appears to be down but has not yet confirmed such with two closes below the zero line. That said, applying the oscillator calculations to the SPX and R2K components directly does confirm down. The NYMO typically tracks the SPX very clos...

Happy New Year everybody. Nothing really new here. The NYMO cycle remains up. I figure I will just put up this chart again. SPX continues to tick above the big bull cycle logarithmic rising tops line. :shock: Weekly RSI continues to show a bearish divergence. So, maybe the bears will get to take a t...

The NYMO cycle is UP! In fact, we have soared from deep negative to the upper Turn Zone in just 5 days. :shock: The upper Turn Zone behaves a bit differently than the lower Turn Zone. We can get a reversal into a down cycle from here or we can get some corrective consolidation/pullback. As long as t...

The NYMO cycle is down. After a deep dive, we appear to be making a corrective move to the zero line at the moment. Pricewise, all up gaps have been closed, and a new one has been opened below. We are neither here nor there at the moment as we lie in between the upper and middle keltner. We have mad...

The NYMO cycle is down?? We have had a very brief up cycle that only got two positive closes. It looks like today will clock a third negative NYMO close. If NYMO continues to proceed downward, it suggests the up cycle was just corrective and a trap for bulls. On the other hand, if NYMO quickly turns...

The NYMO cycle is UP. Yesterday provided a second close above the zero line to confirm. We have one small price gap above and a stack some distance below. Given some P-bars around the up gap and OPEX next week, that gap should get closed. Bulls want to push to a new ATH and tag the upper keltner to ...

The NYMO cycle is DOWN. However, we are making higher highs and lows coming out of deep in the Turn Zone. So, we could be making a big corrective move toward the zero line or be in an up cycle that will confirm once NYMO gets above zero. Price has opened up a fresh down gap this morning. There remai...

Mr. BachNut wrote:
I am short SPX

Well, I wanted to add but just found myself scaling out a profit unit.

Also, forgot to mention that the long I had been holding the past few weeks was closed out.

NYMO cycle is down and has been for a while. It is currently in the lower turn zone and lingering. This morning I thought we were on our way for a bullish corrective move to the zero line, but that has been kaboshed since the European close. Seeing the BTFD gang get smacked today may indicate a chan...

Just a few observations: NYMO is well into the lower Turn Zone this morning. So, perhaps a low forms in days ahead. However, the Oversold Zone is still a ways below. So there is still room for more downside. We have closed three down gaps today and opened a big up gap. The next gap is down around th...

OK. NYMO is approaching the Turn Zone. :shock: Two gaps on deck for closure. There is also a VIX gap at 21 to be closed. Let's see what happens once that work is done. Perhaps a low of some kind or perhaps not. We also have a holiday in the mix for Mr. Market to shank folks with... :roll: Still long...

Whoops. Can't speak english this morning...

"is appreciating"

Mr. BachNut wrote: is been appreciating

This chart (for the bears) may be back in play. There is a small negative RSI divergence on the weekly SPX. A good push by the bulls can cure it, but if it holds, one can dream about a test of the two year moving average. The chart is also notable because price has pierced above the rising tops line...