Cobra's Market View

Looks like we got out first correction and embarked on our second leg up to complete this move up for a "3 push" bear flag counter-trend rally before we go back down for minor wave 5 to complete wave 1 down.

Took a spec long pay here on UPRO to try and catch this second leg up.

fehro, we got a MACD crossover plus a green bar on the hourly, so it's a low probability it's going to turn down to the degree of a head and shoulder pattern right now. That would not be high probability trade- JMO.

Perfect bear flag channel trading action so far... this is what I'm carefully watching... the 80 SMA on the weekly is the key on top of this hourly chart I'm monitoring

Going to wait and see what happens- currently out of the market today. What I'm looking for is an entry point to be short (or long the VIX) again. IMO, this rally will eventually fail, but it has more to go, perhaps one minor pullback and then a final spurt up for a two-legged up-move. Then, we go b...

Market didn't do what I thought it might do so closed out TVIX longs and took profit.

Now in wait and see mode.

Ok, now we see if we get the 2PM whoosh back down.

If we continue higher and make new highs for the day from here, I will be cashing in my long TVIX positions, and waiting for tomorrow to see what position to take.

Otherwise, will hold until we near the close.

That's a pretty good wildest guess Cobra - I also do think we will head back down later this afternoon and follow what happened to the European markets.

On the SPX cash index, we are rattling along the lower trendline of the bear flag on the hourly... IF we break below this, will add more to long TVIX positions.

That might have been it as far as the opening bounce goes... as Al_Dente noted, IYR gap filled, plus Cobra's comment on the exahaustion bar... a full gap fill is still not likely this point. The real test is now coming... let's see how the market reacts to the selling pressure now that the initial k...

Breakage about to happen... right before the open... gap-fill chances are dwindling here... definitely not looking good for the bulls. Spec long play last Fri didn't work so closed it before the end of the cash session and opened up a long TVIX position. Added more to the long TVIX session during ex...

Closed long TVIX (VIX ETF) positions opened up from yesterday.

Opened up speculative long 3X SPX (UPRO) positions to see if we bounce from here.

My projection is that we have a bounce from here to slightly higher highs before wave 3 starts which could take us to new lows for the year.

Kiss of death - odds are higher now for a decline to follow-through at this point. I agree w/Cobra that this intraday decline won't be bought unlike the past few sessions where it did.

If you are itching to play the JBTFD game, wait a bit and look for...

Good info around here... happy to add my thoughts.

runningoutofroom.png Some of things of note: 1. SMA cross-overs after compression on the 5 min SPX 2. TVIX triangle breakout 3. Double top this morning and failure to clear yesterday's high Wouldn't buy this dip folks. If you are itching to buy a dip, be more patient and wait a little more. Here's ...

Imminent TVIX breakout... 5... 4... 3.. 2.

Looks like the compression of the SMAs are resolving to the down side... down side crossover between green and red lines imminent on the 5 minute.

This could be it folks! Get ready!! Fully loaded at this point with TVIX calls. Let's see what happen here.

Starting to run out of wiggle room here... sma's lining up altogether. First move may be a false move, followed by the real move in the opposite direction. Be careful!