03/04/2017 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money shorted a little bit more this week. The short is not extreme yet so should still be some up rooms.


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2380

[Al_Dente]

In light of the SNAP IPO you may want to read this new Harvard research paper on avoiding crashes:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ck-crashes

Periodically, the major brokerages post a “new issues” historical chart. As that’s key, please post here the next time you see one… thanks

[Cobra]

No stock picks this week. The candidates found are just a little bit higher than the last week which feels not right
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2382

[QED]

.
Hillarious!!! The punchlines actually write themselves!


Trooper Travis Smaka pulled over a speeding driver on Interstate 15 in Las Vegas. Leaning in the passenger side window, he shined his light into the car and asked the first question most cops ask of a carload of speeders, "You guys have anything to drink tonight?"

“Just as I ask the question, I hear the sound that always gets the hairs on my neck standing up, of brakes locking up.”

Smaka looked up just in time to see a beer truck skidding down the freeway spilling cases of beer all over the travel lanes. Smaka, the stopped car, and its driver were pelted with dented cans and shattered glass as a small tidal wave of warm beer washed over them.

http://kxan.com/2017/03/02/video-beer-t ... -drinking/
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[Trades with cats]

Black Gold-
Continuation of existing trends. That means US production up, imports running at last years level less about 800,000 barrels a week of exports and refinery run rates dropping. OPEC stated goal was to return world storage to the 5year average by July. So they have 18 weeks or so, say 20 because it is easier to do in your head, to get the US surplus of 164 million barrels gone. The longer it takes to start then we will have to see a 'panic the markets everybody buy long drop' going into summer OR admit OPEC didn't do what they said.

Well Cats, how much oil do we use in a week? Top of my head horse shoe and hand grenade accuracy 18 million barrels, roughly half from domestic production and about half is imported from Canada and elsewhere (tankers).
From the EIA Crude oil imported from OPEC in thousands of barrels per day by month.https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_i ... blpd_m.htm

Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16
History
U.S.
3,502 3,118 3,314 3,110 3,242 3,295

So to make goal they really need to cut exports to the US by about a third and hope we don't find other sources. But the reality is Saudi just cut prices to Asia as they continue to battle for market share with Iran back to 1997 production levels and others (think Nigeria and Angola) recovering from drastic reductions.



Well what about the hedge funds? Slight reduction in long positions. From John Kemp at Reuters


Several on this forum post great charts of CL. Collbizone out there on twitter, the Elliot wave trader I follow has gone short crude and put up his wave count, which is a different perspective. As Mr. Bachnut said he will (Coolbizone) will abandon a position very very quickly if he does not like the price action, then go right back in an hour a day or week later.
His public comment March 2 was " $WTIC is heading much lower towards $42-$39, needs to break $50.71 in coming weeks at $52.65 now" Then at 12:00 on March 3 "added more at 53.32, Av. ahort entry now at $53.06. Stop at $53.70 x 12 (will lower the stop as market allows)". So he is in for 12 contracts for now. You do the math on exposure!



To close here is a look at drill rigs from John Kemp. Makes it pretty clear hoiw Wall Street's 6 plus billion of new equity money into the shale drillers was spent

[Trades with cats]

I got US crude exports wrong, I should have said per day not week. Actual last week was 723,000 barrels a day. No idea where it goes other than Venezuela. My real point is IEA reports net imports so if you are not aware that exports are up 82% over last year you may think OPEC is doing better than they are at cutting to the US.

I really have to stop writing numbers down on yellow sticky notes all week and then putting them on my cats.