11/10/2012 Weekend Update

[BullBear52x]

Housing looks good, few months ago I mentioned possible iH&S pattern, target have not been reach yet

The attachment PHLX-11.png is no longer available

IYR is do or die here, have a good one.

[KeiZai]

Housing looks good, few months ago I mentioned possible iH&S pattern, target have not been reach yet

The attachment PHLX-11.png is no longer available

IYR is do or die here, have a good one.

Uf on monthly not looking very good

U too BB, you just came from party? up at 5am

[uempel]

From http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/

Ha, exactly the same chart! But I'm also showing 377, and that MA is now down at 1317

The "bear traps" refer to breaks below the 377 MA without follow-up and did not result in a bear market

[daytradingES]

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-informati ... -calendar/

[daytradingES]

This is a review of the 3 sections of a bull campaign I made when I started.
Then I made the meltdown video, so I guess this is nail in the coffin video.

Nail in the Coffin - 11 Nov 2011
http://screencast.com/t/Ww1ENp4a5zC


Previous

Three lower tops since FOMC peak - 21 Oct, 2012
http://screencast.com/t/NHz9eAJOK3

Meltdown 9 Nov 2012
http://screencast.com/t/4TyiqmpxPuB

Bullets

* Three sections of bull campaign were completed on the 14 of Sept FOMC $40-80 Billion a month Bad Ben bank bailout of MBA paper (from the March 9, 2009 666 low).

* The high 1474 was 100 pts less than the 1576 high of Oct 11 2007 five years earlier.

* The 2007 peak was 7 years after the 2000 top and formed a double top leading down into the 2009 crash.

* The 2012 peak at 100pts less is a failure of the double top and formed a triple top failure (100 pts less).

* Since 14 Sept peak 1474.75 (Dec ES contract) the subsequent tops have been lower

* Third lower top 19 Oct was 25 yr anniversary of Black Monday (1987)

* We have retrace 50% of the rise from the June low (1262) with Friday's low 1369.

* Even if we bounce this week to 1418- 1420 area the game is over (IMO).

Ten Reasons - as if the charts aren't enough!:
1. 25 yr anniversary of 1987
2. 12 yr anniversary of 2000
3. 5 yr anniversary of 2007
4. triple top failure in 2012 at 1474 FOMC peak
5. 9 Nov 2012 down to 50% of rise from June 2012 low to FOMC peak.
6. Massive money printing ($8Trillion?) since 2009 low has not been able to rig and push up the market to 2007 highs (1576)
7. 1/3 (?) of USA homes under water
8. high unemployment (real USA rate close to 25% using pre 1994 system including permanently displaced) 25%(?) in Spain 20% (?) in Greece etc.
9. trillions of debt in euro-zone countries - PIIGS

10. Western jobs outsourced to China with preferred nation status in 1990 - signaling sell-out of western workers to a totalitarian country with a fixed exchange rate and low employee and environment standards. These 2 factors gave China an unfair trade advantage - prices subsidized by low exchange and costs with externalities (employee costs and environmental costs). This Big Sell-Out showed American corporations controlled government decisions with bought and paid for politicians and lobbying. They big corporations made huge short term profits by exporting jobs but gutted the middle class of the western world. (Free trade is not Fair trade when the tables are rigged and China has amassed and enormous warchest (3.3 trillion US dollars officially and some speculate far higher)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... e_reserves

Conclusion
It looks like we are in the mother of all crashes which could take us to unbelievable levels (far below 666 levels say 471(?)) and if the printing press couldn't steriod this pig past 1474 then the USA with debt > 100% of GDP lacks the market manipulation power it had in 2009 to pull us out of the next tailspin.

Of course alternatively "the market will never go down again"

IHIH
NTA

[Al_Dente]

AAPL
Here is one chap who is “predicting” a right shoulder and then a target down, measured from the “head” of his (hypothetical) H&S
http://stock-chartist.com/

I’m focused on the downtrend channel, and the support in the 520 zone, with the previous support areas (pink lines) now becoming resistance.
Note the intraday range Friday was 21 points, which AAPL calls a “bounce”
She could “bounce” around between 520 and ~570 and her downtrend channel would still be intact.

[Al_Dente]

$INDU/$SPX/$RUT closed on a black spinning top, or a long legged doji
Either way it’s indecision… low-to-medium reliability reversal signal
http://www.candlesticker.com/Neutral.asp

SPY/DIA/QQQ/XLF closed on an inverted hammer, which is a “low reliability” bullish-reversal candle
http://www.candlesticker.com/Bullish.asp

[Could somebody please explain to me why the ETFs and their indices can’t close on the same kind of candle? When in doubt, which one do YOU use?]

SPY volume pattern suggests a bounce

[Al_Dente]

just for balance, here is an AAPL bull
“…For Christmas everyone wants an iPhone, iPad or iPad Mini. Its just what we all want, the end…”
http://www.thestockmasters.com/AAPL-11092012

[Al_Dente]

Last month I posted this zh piece on AAPLs managed money
At that time their best GUESS was $100 billion AUM assets under management
So, not only is AAPL suffering from their own stock decline, but their ginormous AUM is suffering bear also…
(unless they are overweight bonds…. which is possible…)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-3 ... ever-heard

“…nobody knows just what assets it holds. …Apple’s …cash balance… at last check was double that of the US Treasury…”

[Al_Dente]

Could someone please post an EW count on aapl
thanks

[ClarkW]

One from the bullish camp. This is "borrowed" art.

[ClarkW]

Some more borrowed art but this time for the bear camp. NYSI has been bearish since 10/08

[ClarkW]

AL DENTE,

Your $ONE:$CPCI turned negative, right?

[KeiZai]

Could someone please post an EW count on aapl
thanks

Haha doc u are obssesed with apple

I don´t have count on it (can try to make one) but I wouldn´t touch i-stuff now for LT maybe later, what u posted about apple I am watching exactly same thing (he had to steal it from me )

I see nazi toppish as well

[BullBear52x]

AAPL
Here is one chap who is “predicting” a right shoulder and then a target down, measured from the “head” of his (hypothetical) H&S
http://stock-chartist.com/

The attachment 1111aaplhs.png is no longer available

I’m focused on the downtrend channel, and the support in the 520 zone, with the previous support areas (pink lines) now becoming resistance.
Note the intraday range Friday was 21 points, which AAPL calls a “bounce”
She could “bounce” around between 520 and ~570 and her downtrend channel would still be intact.

The attachment 1111aapl2.png is no longer available

my take on AAPL
470 is in the card from May.

[BullBear52x]

Housing looks good, few months ago I mentioned possible iH&S pattern, target have not been reach yet

PHLX-11.png

IYR is do or die here, have a good one.

Uf on monthly not looking very good

IRY11.png

U too BB, you just came from party? up at 5am

lots of drinks

[ClarkW]

For the bear camp.

[Al_Dente]

Could someone please post an EW count on aapl...thanks

Haha doc u are obssesed with apple
I don´t have count on it (can try to make on) but I wouldn´t touch i-stuff now for LT maybe later, what u posted about apple I am watching exactly same thing (he had to steal it from me )
I see nazi toppish as well...

panda: thanks 4 all yr great charts this wknd

u r right I am obsessed with aapl
the only thing I might bet on is a short put @ 510-520
And I’m not doing that…I’m flat AAPL as of friday
AAPL scares me here

PS: thanks daytradingES, clarkw and bb52x for gold updates

dtes: I especially liked your meltdown video, and I think it’s actually a good thing (for bears) that there aren’t more grizzly bears on board…yet…

For late voters: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Etta: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns

[TWT]

SPX:
In my opinion the internal structure can only be counted as corrective. Last Thursday I modified the overall count from a Double Zig Zag to a Triple Zig Zag (11 –wave move)

If on Friday price has established a short-term bottom (keep in mind that price has reached a significant support = long term horizontal support + 0.5 retracement of the June-September up leg), in addition we have a daily Doji candlestick and positive divergence of the NYSE Adv-Dec Volume, Then within the TZZ pattern we could have two options:

1. Price is involved in unfolding the final wave (C) of (Z).

Since the down leg off the November 6 peak is only a 3 –wave move then this option would require an Ending Diagonal.

A Wave (II) could reach the 0.618 retracement at 1410 (At 1408 we have the 10 dma)

2. From the November 6 peak price is unfolding the third Zig Zag.

If this count is correct then last Friday price could have established the bottom of the wave (A). The wave (B) could top in the range 1396 – 1410, while the following wave (C) down could reach the 1340 area.

[TWT]

USD INDEX: Lets see how far can the USD index rise within a clear corrective pattern that could still unfold the right shoulder of large H&S bearish pattern.

It is not necessary to remind that once the corrective rebound of the USD Index is over the Equity indices are expected to resume the intermediate uptrend.