11/12/2012 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

60 min ChiOsc will soon suggest a bounce (BUT NOT UNTIL IT TURNS UP)...top panel, pink circle
Only two things wrong with that signal:
1. the last two signals failed (blue circles)
2. The Snake will probably say “it’s not extreme enough”

[ClarkW]

TG. Do you have a Bradley Turn Date on Wednesday?

There is a Bradley turn date on the 14th...Some cyclists I follow say we could see "the" low 13-15th, and it's possible, but I also see that there are neg aspects 23rd through 27th, so I will be watching to see what kind of rally we get into the 20th or so, and then what kind of pullback we get into the 27/28th time frame...

My thinking is we get a swing low around the 27/28th to a high possibly into mid December...

Thanks TG

[TraderJoe]

FACEBOOK LOCKUP RELEASE: An Astounding 777 Million Shares Become Available On Wednesday
Facebook is in the middle of three major new "lockup" releases in which early investors and employees can finally sell.
The first came on October 29. The stock has dropped from $22 to $19 since then as many insiders have headed for the exits.
The second release, which is much larger, will hit this Wednesday, November 14.
The third will hit December 14.
Additionally, several of Facebook's senior executives, including COO Sheryl Sandberg, have received the huge restricted stock grants they have earned over the past few years and converted their shares into tradable common stock. And they have begun selling regularly.
The amount of Facebook stock that will become available for sale in this six week period is staggering. Here are the broad numbers:
On October 28, Facebook's "float" was 692 million shares (stock available to be sold in the public market).
On October 29, an additional 234 million shares (and options) were released
On November 14, an additional 777 million shares will become available for sale
On December 14, an additional 156 million shares will become available for sale
On May 18, 2013, an additional 47 million shares will become available for sale
All in, nearly 1.2 billion new shares will become available for sale during these 6 weeks, which is nearly twice the current float. By mid-December, Facebook's float will be 1.9 billion shares.
Many of the folks who own these shares—former employees, current employees, and early investors—have been holding the stock for a long time and are presumably eager to cash out of at least a portion of their holdings. So there would seem to be a good chance that more of this stock will hit the market in the next couple of months.

[Petsamo]

FACEBOOK LOCKUP RELEASE: An Astounding 777 Million Shares Become Available On Wednesday
Facebook is in the middle of three major new "lockup" releases in which early investors and employees can finally sell.
The first came on October 29. The stock has dropped from $22 to $19 since then as many insiders have headed for the exits.
The second release, which is much larger, will hit this Wednesday, November 14.
The third will hit December 14.
Additionally, several of Facebook's senior executives, including COO Sheryl Sandberg, have received the huge restricted stock grants they have earned over the past few years and converted their shares into tradable common stock. And they have begun selling regularly.
The amount of Facebook stock that will become available for sale in this six week period is staggering. Here are the broad numbers:
On October 28, Facebook's "float" was 692 million shares (stock available to be sold in the public market).
On October 29, an additional 234 million shares (and options) were released
On November 14, an additional 777 million shares will become available for sale
On December 14, an additional 156 million shares will become available for sale
On May 18, 2013, an additional 47 million shares will become available for sale
All in, nearly 1.2 billion new shares will become available for sale during these 6 weeks, which is nearly twice the current float. By mid-December, Facebook's float will be 1.9 billion shares.
Many of the folks who own these shares—former employees, current employees, and early investors—have been holding the stock for a long time and are presumably eager to cash out of at least a portion of their holdings. So there would seem to be a good chance that more of this stock will hit the market in the next couple of months.

I'm baffled as to why people are selling. PE ratio is high but profitability and efficiency are outstanding.

[scout_lt]

3rd day in a row under 200 day moving average. Not a bullish configuration I guess... A solid close above this level would show some light in a tunel for the bulls, a break of a downtrend channel to the upside more or less would confirm further upside momentum. But for now we dont have any of these events...stay bearish.

[Cobra]

breakdown then consolidation under breakdown point GENERALLY is not good for bulls.

[toddymc]

if neckline changes to a purple.. higher target is possible.

Definite Divergence there...XIV/SPX

ES Trendlines : next bounce targets the upper burgundy line... maybe

Note that those fib ext. levels got hit--- next lower one(161.8) is at 1347 ES

[Al_Dente]

VIXies are invisible
Only the MA ribbons are visible, lower panel
somebody will be wrong here

[jdow]

Dont fight insiders.... WAY TOO many shares to sell. Many of those have prices below $1. they will take 20:1 although they missed out on 40:1

FACEBOOK LOCKUP RELEASE: An Astounding 777 Million Shares Become Available On Wednesday
Facebook is in the middle of three major new "lockup" releases in which early investors and employees can finally sell.
The first came on October 29. The stock has dropped from $22 to $19 since then as many insiders have headed for the exits.
The second release, which is much larger, will hit this Wednesday, November 14.
The third will hit December 14.
Additionally, several of Facebook's senior executives, including COO Sheryl Sandberg, have received the huge restricted stock grants they have earned over the past few years and converted their shares into tradable common stock. And they have begun selling regularly.
The amount of Facebook stock that will become available for sale in this six week period is staggering. Here are the broad numbers:
On October 28, Facebook's "float" was 692 million shares (stock available to be sold in the public market).
On October 29, an additional 234 million shares (and options) were released
On November 14, an additional 777 million shares will become available for sale
On December 14, an additional 156 million shares will become available for sale
On May 18, 2013, an additional 47 million shares will become available for sale
All in, nearly 1.2 billion new shares will become available for sale during these 6 weeks, which is nearly twice the current float. By mid-December, Facebook's float will be 1.9 billion shares.
Many of the folks who own these shares—former employees, current employees, and early investors—have been holding the stock for a long time and are presumably eager to cash out of at least a portion of their holdings. So there would seem to be a good chance that more of this stock will hit the market in the next couple of months.

I'm baffled as to why people are selling. PE ratio is high but profitability and efficiency are outstanding.

[MrMiyagi]

Yep... VIX is not showing any strength here on this decline... yet...

[Royal Flush]

I forgot link but there is a company stock almanac that tracks day week month etc. over time to use what is likely to happen?

[Petsamo]

Dont fight insiders.... WAY TOO many shares to sell. Many of those have prices below $1. they will take 20:1 although they missed out on 40:1

Shorting FB at current levels is high risk, imo. I don't patronize FB, but I might gamble on the long side.

[Cobra]

possible small double bottom here. wait.

[Out of Bounds]

Dont fight insiders.... WAY TOO many shares to sell. Many of those have prices below $1. they will take 20:1 although they missed out on 40:1

Shorting FB at current levels is high risk, imo. I don't patronize FB, but I might gamble on the long side.

Revenue growth is the worry.

[Al_Dente]

Well shite this is just a flag that should fail near vwap but best put on the sqz goggles just in case the bears start covering like wussies

[toddymc]

Well shite this is just a flag that should fail near vwap but best put on the sqz goggles just in case the bears start covering like wussies

SPY CALL options lookin' kinda tasty here...if pos. divergences hold

[Al_Dente]

Well shite this is just a flag that should fail near vwap but best put on the sqz goggles just in case the bears start covering like wussies

SPY CALL options lookin' kinda tasty here...if pos. divergences hold

Nice chart
THANKS
The options traders and the futures-volatility traders have just gone bonkers bull-spy

[Cobra]

breakout indeed. you know the initial target.

[Cobra]

this rebound shall have legs.

[MrMiyagi]

VIX buckling further down.