11/17/2012 Weekend Update

[BullBear52x]

Here my short term Bullish view from here

until we hit 34ma or 61.8% big picture then I'll find excuse to sell. I see 50% resistance as of now and 5dma resistance.

[BullBear52x]

I am go bull on IWM by evil the TZA

[BullBear52x]

Are we there yet? are we there yet?
picture perfect is NO, my MO buy is confirmed and Bull bars are confirmed so for counter trenders this is a hammer time.

Hammers.JPG

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I put some long on Friday, but there is a problem.
My MO buy did not get confirmed. The rally Friday lifted the MO enough to take the edge off (I figured that would happen).
Doesn't mean the rally won't continue.
Just means the rubber band didn't stretch to the downside far enough, long enough to give high confidence on a juicy sized bounce (as opposed to a scalp sort of thing).
A down Monday could fix this, which could bode well for trading into the holiday and maybe after.
An up Monday would have me cautiously riding and unclear how robust things get before a turn to retest the low.

Thanks, most people are looking for some form of divergence only few die-hard that want to bet on every turn like us. I hope we are the minority on these views.

[BullBear52x]

beside short term Hammers all over the places, also inverse H&S or Cup/handles forming.

OK....now I am over bullish now, good luck all.

[Al_Dente]

SPX chart with forward P/E overlays
(It appears that forward P/E 13 was “brick wall” resistance over the past two years, and support between 11x and 12x)
Chart source: http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/11/stock-m ... ation.html

Thank u sir here is small present for u
and buddy don´t forget

ooooooooooooooo
Thank you panda boss
Also, this guy really needs your vote today: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

And for Uempel (from Kansas) : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSZxmZmBfnU

[Xian]

I saw something on this board Friday to the effect of, "Fiscal cliff deal this weekend?" And on a couple of other boards about, "If Washington doesn't mess it up this week."

FWIW, Congress left town friday afternoon for their week-long Thanksgiving vacation, so the the odds of Washington or fiscal cliff news moving the markets this week would be a low-probability event.

I mean, you got your week long vacation for Thanksgiving this year didn't you?

Didn't you?!!?!!!

[uempel]

SPX chart with forward P/E overlays
(It appears that forward P/E 13 was “brick wall” resistance over the past two years, and support between 11x and 12x)
Chart source: http://blog.yardeni.com/2012/11/stock-m ... ation.html

Thank u sir here is small present for u
and buddy don´t forget

ooooooooooooooo
Thank you panda boss
Also, this guy really needs your vote today: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

And for Uempel (from Kansas) : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSZxmZmBfnU

Hey Al, so that's why we did not see you yesterday TraderLady found the place, you thought it was in Kansas

[Al_Dente]

SPX chart with forward P/E overlays

Thank u sir here is small present for u and buddy don´t forget

Thank you panda boss
Also, this guy really needs your vote today: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
And for Uempel (from Kansas) : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSZxmZmBfnU

Hey Al, so that's why we did not see you yesterday TraderLady found the place, you thought it was in Kansas

Totò.png

Boss: did they serve pasta ... mmmmm

[TWT]

SPX Short-Term:
Last Friday I suggested that price was involved in unfolding a terminal pattern with a potential Triangle.
Instead of a Triangle price traced an Ending Diagonal, some good news came form Washington and price after testing the 0.618 retracement reversed to the upside, leaving in the daily chart a bullish hammer

Therefore the wave structure off the November 6 peak is most likely over. This down leg, if my preferred count is correct, is the wave (A) of the last Zig Zag from the September 14 high. Therefore I am expecting a multi-day bounce followed by a lower low that should complete the corrective EWP (Recall that I am working with a Triple Zig Zag) from the September 14 high with positive divergences.

The internal structure of this bounce at the moment suggests that price may unfold a Double Zig Zag, in which case the common extension targets are:

1 x 1 = 1369
1 x 1.618 = 1380

A counter trend bounce always entails risks since the EWP can easily morph into something else, so next Monday I would like to see follow through to the upside or at least price should not breach the initial higher low at 1351.06

In order to keep the ball running to the upside, bulls need price above the 50 wma = 1366.85 by next Friday, theoretically it looks like an easy task.

[TWT]

SPX:
In the daily chart below I highlight the target box for the assumed wave (B) countertrend bounce with a range 1382 – 1402.
A weak bounce should fail at the 200 dma while a strong one will go deeper inside the box and two trend lines resistance could come into play.

So the good news for the short-term bullish case is that there are enough technical reasons that auspicate a larger rebound.

But the negatives are still more overwhelming, since in addition to an incomplete EWP there is no sign of a major bottom from breadth-momentum indicator, VIX and sentiment.

I want to stress the importance that a strong rebound would help the bullish outcome of the EWP form the September high since higher readings of breadth & momentum indicators will increase the odds that in the “final” wave down price will establish a Major Bottom with positive divergences.

[KeiZai]

From Serge @ ETF Corner
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2012/ ... ndex-.html

I got a buy on INTC also.

Yeah at RSI 20 use to bounce good, 23.35 can be print out easily or if this will be another ZZ then 24.50 will be like magnet (zig-zaging since 2002)

Maybe I join you for quick scalp

[uempel]

Many of my charts don't support the 1343/bottom idea. I'd prefer a bounce down at 1320, as suggested here

[Cobra]

Futures up 6 points now. Red line the mini rebound target.

[Cobra]

Many of my charts don't support the 1343/bottom idea. I'd prefer a bounce down at 1320, as suggested here

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You mean not even a short-term rebound, we down directly to 1320?

[Cobra]

A closer view of resistance and initial target.

[ClarkW]

99er's Wolfe Wave (purple) on ES weekly chart
http://www.99ercharts.com/

[KENA]

Many of my charts don't support the 1343/bottom idea. I'd prefer a bounce down at 1320, as suggested here

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Nice to see that you are agreeing with my projections that I posted mid Oct..I still think after we have a bounce next week we could have a test of the June Low of 12100 +/- and then ralley up to the 5odma which is sloping dn and may be in the 12800/12900 area..If this happens this will form a big H & S top then the next move can be dn big..What you think????

[daytradingES]

BTW,
1. I am trying to figure out how to back test VIX front month and back month futures then I can try to figure contango/backwardation.

2. The purpose of which is to optimize my swing trades by trading either a stock index ETF or a VIX ETF.

3. For example currently it would be beneficial to be long XIV as opposed to TNA. Any assistance in this would be greatly appreciated.

The attachment ybcepES_12-12_(377_Tick)__11_16_2012.jpg is no longer available

Hi RF,

Ok - just so long as your not poking fun at me!

I imagine your request for input is to the whole board and therefore a reply within the thread is more helpful than a PM.

I don't trade swing for myself at this time though I would later with more money.
To clarify my thinking I have skiped over all the posts on the board that are too complicated for my approach.
For example I had to look up vix and tna to respond
"Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN Velocityshares (XIV)
Smallcap Bull 3X Direxion (TNA)"

A. Of your three points above #2 is the one I can best understand. Your purpose is to be long or short an ETF for a swing trade of a few days - correct? BTW you can buy and short the same ETF - such as your TNA which makes things clearer, IMO
Timeframe is important so I've put a chart below.

B. I think there is an assumption that point #1 will help you with your purpose. Have you noticed a predictive relationship?
(I can't help with the back-testing BTW.).

I could offer some ideas regarding your point #2 - but from how I would approach it, though I don't think that my way of approaching it would be in alignment with your preferences. (I am a rather simple fellow )

Let me know. Perhaps other on the board can be of more help to RF?

DT

[Royal Flush]

BTW,
1. I am trying to figure out how to back test VIX front month and back month futures then I can try to figure contango/backwardation.

2. The purpose of which is to optimize my swing trades by trading either a stock index ETF or a VIX ETF.

3. For example currently it would be beneficial to be long XIV as opposed to TNA. Any assistance in this would be greatly appreciated.

The attachment ybcepES_12-12_(377_Tick)__11_16_2012.jpg is no longer available

Hi RF,

Ok - just so long as your not poking fun at me!

I imagine your request for input is to the whole board and therefore a reply within the thread is more helpful than a PM.

I don't trade swing for myself at this time though I would later with more money.
To clarify my thinking I have skiped over all the posts on the board that are too complicated for my approach.
For example I had to look up vix and tna to respond
"Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN Velocityshares (XIV)
Smallcap Bull 3X Direxion (TNA)"

A. Of your three points above #2 is the one I can best understand. Your purpose is to be long or short an ETF for a swing trade of a few days - correct? BTW you can buy and short the same ETF - such as your TNA which makes things clearer, IMO
Timeframe is important so I've put a chart below.

B. I think there is an assumption that point #1 will help you with your purpose. Have you noticed a predictive relationship?
(I can't help with the back-testing BTW.).

I could offer some ideas regarding your point #2 - but from how I would approach it, though I don't think that my way of approaching it would be in alignment with your preferences. (I am a rather simple fellow )

Let me know. Perhaps other on the board can be of more help to RF?

DT

Hi DTES,

No I have not noticed a predictive relationship but I think that it is the correct place to start. Below is my swing trading chart. You have the idea on your chart although I refrain from counter trend trades in strong trends. The daily double rejection of the SMA 50 and my red Donchian Channel keep me from trading long.

[TraderGirl]

The outer red band represents 3 standard deviations above/below the 50ma on SPX
SPX has spent the last 8 trading days in that red zone, including yesterday.
That is unusual, and dangerous.
SPX needs to bounce out of there… and quick…. then the correction might be analogous to May’s correction: low selling volume, no wash-out climax,
lower low bottom, then a little retest … essentially a wussie correction, just like May’s…
The more time SPX spends in the 3 std-dev red zone, the greater the risk of a crash-ette more like Aug 2011.
IMHO

1117wkndstddev.png

Great chart Al. But may I remind you that it's Saturday, we've got a day off today. I'll be in the "Totò Bar" at 6 pm, TraderGirl will be there, you coming too

I will be there as long as you don't get upset when I start drinking straight from the bottle....

TraderLady, I was very upset but I still love you

TL.png

I didn't see you snapping my photo, must have been too loaded...