11/24/2012 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

AAII shows retailers are less bearish now.

II shows nothing.

[Cobra]

Algo from stocktiming shows no positive divergence (of course, no new low yet, so no divergence).

[Cobra]

I don't remember I ever saw the NYSE Intra-day cumulative tick this high.

[Al_Dente]

I don't remember I ever saw the NYSE Intra-day cumulative tick this high.

Cobra
I couldn’t reproduce that cumulative tick chart (they have some secret stuff in there)
But while trying, I stumbled onto this.
As soon as the cum tick drops back into the bb (any day now), the pullback starts.
Note the centerline bb has been consistent support since June. When it breaches the centerline, then the target is the lower bb, like in May
(and in Aug/Dec 2011, not on this chart)
(see your “trading signals” page)
FWIW

[Heck]

The Welcoming Committee?:

Re: 11/23/2012 Live Update
Sent: Sat Nov 24, 2012 5:53 am
by TraderJoe

Heck,
I hope you will change your mind and post often. I was only talking about when you were posting all of the PnF charts, one after another and another and another.

Most of us do not use PnF charts, we like the bar charts. Post PnF charts, not links.

I did not mean to offend you, I was ONLY trying to help you FIT the main group.. Many of them (not me) have been there for a long time, they live close to each other and they even go out to have a drink every now and then.

There are some very smart people on this forum and I for one, have learned a LOT.. Personally, I may go weeks without posting, I usually only reply to a comment or ask questions..

Anyway,
Please change your mind, just don't post links over and over again...

Happy Trading,
Joe
Re: 11/23/2012 Live Update
Sent: Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:52 pm
by Heck

TraderJoe wrote:
Heck,
You may do as you please but if I were you, I would not post over and over and over again...

Will not post again.

[ClarkW]

Just found this $tick related chart, thought some might find it interesting and worthy of recreating...
Using $TICK:$VIX as the signal

[Cobra]

Just found this $tick related chart, thought some might find it interesting and worthy of recreating...
Using $TICK:$VIX as the signal

Hmm, nice. Thanks.

But what is the logic behind using TICK:VIX?

[ClarkW]

Just found this $tick related chart, thought some might find it interesting and worthy of recreating...
Using $TICK:$VIX as the signal

Hmm, nice. Thanks.

But what is the logic behind using TICK:VIX?

Sorry Cobra, can't help you with the logic I just found it skimming through chart porn on stockcharts.com and there wasn't an explanation. I look at pictures, not read articles

[BullBear52x]

Hello weekenders, hope everyone got blessing from the Turkey god.

IWM aiming as high as 82?

wait for MACD and BB% to turn before I want to go counter trend on this because the buying was so strong not that any volume to support it but it also tell the minority of people are the winners on this last move up.

LL and LH are still intact on my read, so down trend is still well here.

[BullBear52x]

$SOX is fighting back hard also here, I see short term resistance soon too.

SMH is a buy on my swing set up, let see if that buy line holds this coming week.

INTC doesn't want to participate in this run up for some reason

for semi players, if you are looking for base building type of stock I see MU is having a good base so far.

and on the swing set up it's still hanging on the buy side. good luck all.

[Al_Dente]

China’s commodity consumption
Source: Marc Faber’ 50 charts:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-2 ... chart-porn

[Cobra]

Summary of this week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=737&p=106029#p106029

[Cobra]

Stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=744&p=106030#p106030

[daytradingES]

Review 8 for week to 23 Nov 2012
http://screencast.com/t/xbNor4A325g


Review of Gold and TSX
Gold -up til not, conflict in Gaza
TSX -looking to buy HXD < $8.50 when cci tops.
HXD.to is inverse to TSX
NTA, IHIH

[KaZoom]

I don't remember I ever saw the NYSE Intra-day cumulative tick this high.

Cobra
I couldn’t reproduce that cumulative tick chart (they have some secret stuff in there)
But while trying, I stumbled onto this.
As soon as the cum tick drops back into the bb (any day now), the pullback starts.
Note the centerline bb has been consistent support since June. When it breaches the centerline, then the target is the lower bb, like in May
(and in Aug/Dec 2011, not on this chart)
(see your “trading signals” page)
FWIW

1124wknd cum tick.png

I like your chart - interesting - definitely a keeper. The long-term MA of daily $TICK is currently above zero, so the bias of this indicator will have a form that grows upwards from left-to-right, as you show. Note that the actual value of cumulative tick depends on where you start your chart (but, of course, the BB ranges that you cite will self-adjust to the same lower, centre, and upper touch points).

The intra-day chart that Cobra posted looks zero-biased - perhaps the secret stuff is that the cumulative part is relative to the previous day's close - too bad stockcharts.com doesn't support any arithmetic operations in the display (even $ONE: is a kludge).

[Cobra]

I don't remember I ever saw the NYSE Intra-day cumulative tick this high.

Cobra
I couldn’t reproduce that cumulative tick chart (they have some secret stuff in there)
But while trying, I stumbled onto this.
As soon as the cum tick drops back into the bb (any day now), the pullback starts.
Note the centerline bb has been consistent support since June. When it breaches the centerline, then the target is the lower bb, like in May
(and in Aug/Dec 2011, not on this chart)
(see your “trading signals” page)
FWIW

1124wknd cum tick.png

I like your chart - interesting - definitely a keeper. The long-term MA of daily $TICK is currently above zero, so the bias of this indicator will have a form that grows upwards from left-to-right, as you show. Note that the actual value of cumulative tick depends on where you start your chart (but, of course, the BB ranges that you cite will self-adjust to the same lower, centre, and upper touch points).

The intra-day chart that Cobra posted looks zero-biased - perhaps the secret stuff is that the cumulative part is relative to the previous day's close - too bad stockcharts.com doesn't support any arithmetic operations in the display (even $ONE: is a kludge).

A friend sent me this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/111289- ... -nyse-tick

[Al_Dente]

I don't remember I ever saw the NYSE Intra-day cumulative tick this high.

Cobra
I couldn’t reproduce that cumulative tick chart (they have some secret stuff in there)
But while trying, I stumbled onto this.
As soon as the cum tick drops back into the bb (any day now), the pullback starts.
Note the centerline bb has been consistent support since June. When it breaches the centerline, then the target is the lower bb, like in May
(and in Aug/Dec 2011, not on this chart)
(see your “trading signals” page)
FWIW

1124wknd cum tick.png

I like your chart - interesting - definitely a keeper. The long-term MA of daily $TICK is currently above zero, so the bias of this indicator will have a form that grows upwards from left-to-right, as you show. Note that the actual value of cumulative tick depends on where you start your chart (but, of course, the BB ranges that you cite will self-adjust to the same lower, centre, and upper touch points).

The intra-day chart that Cobra posted looks zero-biased - perhaps the secret stuff is that the cumulative part is relative to the previous day's close - too bad stockcharts.com doesn't support any arithmetic operations in the display (even $ONE: is a kludge).

Thanks kazoom
Problem with that “stocktiming” tickchart is that it is NOT cumulative. It’s the regular tick shifted by some algo… maybe what cobra is referring to in his Steenbarger link….

[Al_Dente]

I don't remember I ever saw the NYSE Intra-day cumulative tick this high.

Cobra...

A friend sent me this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/111289- ... -nyse-tick

Thanks cobra
I’m watching essesseme’s INTRADAY cumulative tick to see how quickly it responds to an intraday turn… we’ll see

[daytradingES]

I don't remember I ever saw the NYSE Intra-day cumulative tick this high.

Cobra...

A friend sent me this: http://seekingalpha.com/article/111289- ... -nyse-tick

Thanks cobra
I’m watching essesseme’s INTRADAY cumulative tick to see how quickly it responds to an intraday turn… we’ll see

The attachment 1124wkndtick.png is no longer available

Hi Al,

Looking at the chart you posted it doesn't look like cumulative Tick is not effective for intraday turns, is that what you see?

Below is the tick and price

[TWT]

SPX: Due to last week impressive achievement by the bulls I have to reassess my scenario that was calling /for the immediate time frame) one more down leg that was expected to established the end of the corrective pullback off the September 14 high.

Despite the absence of positive divergence of momentum and breadth indicators at the November 16 low and the lack of a spike of VIX, this powerful recovery substantially increases the odds that price has completed in a "funky way" a corrective EWP (Triple Zig Zag) form the September 14 high.

Although it is to soon to rule out:

1. A more complex pattern if bulls fails at the 50dma (or below the November 6 peak at 1433.38), which would still allow the missing final “washout” below the November 16 low with positive divergences and a spike of VIX.

2. A large Flat if price brakes above the November 6 peak but fails to break out above the September 14 high.

At the moment I am still doubtful that price has established a major bottom and the intermediate up trend has been switched on.

What seems reasonable is to expect at least a 3-wave up leg off the November 16 low.

In the SPX daily chart below I show the three options:

1. Blue Count: price will unfold at least a Zig Zag with an expected target in the range of the 50dma – November 6 peak. This up leg could be the candidate to revisit the September 14 high. (Maybe price could be involved in unfolding a large Flat)

2. Red Count: It is self-explanatory. If bulls are able to maintain the sequence of higher highs/lows then price will have resumed the intermediate up trend within the “bearish” wave (X).

3. Black Count: The assumed Zig Zag (off the November 16 low) will fail at/below 1433.38, in which case the corrective EWP off the September 14 high will unfold the last wave (Y) down.

4. A fourth option (Dark Blue), which was until last Thursday my preferred count, calls this up leg an “oversold” bounce, in which case bears will have to reclaim the 200 dma = 1383

At the moment I give a higher probability to the Option 3.

So, so far, the conclusions are:

• This move is “obviously” something more than just an oversold bounce.
• But at the moment since the internal structure of this up leg is corrective we still have several options on the table.
• It seems reasonable to expect at least a 3-wave up leg.
• Bears can only pray that the 200 dma will not hold.
• Thanksgiving´s bullish seasonality is ending and due to the “bearish” extremes reached on Friday and a negative divergence of the NYSE Adv-Dec Volume odds are favouring, for early next week, at least a corrective pullback (Since the majority was on holiday the logical behaviour is expected to be buy the dip).