11/26/2012 Live Update

[Petsamo]

Maybe the bears are busy shopping CyberMonday

[Denali92]

Do we have a holiday top? If so, when?

That is what I am asking myself – we have been 5 for 5 on Thanksgiving lows since 2007- but that clearly has not happened. Since 2007, there is only one dramatic Thanksgiving period where we bottomed on opex day and rallied to the Friday after Thanksgiving and then fell roughly 8% on the Monday after and that was the low…. That was in the wild volatility of 2008.

I am not bearish here – just expecting the holiday turn – as they happen – some times for just 25 spx points. 2008 was the most dramatic pullback with a Friday top and a post holiday Monday low. There has only been one major post Thanksgiving top in 2002 when we had been rallying for some time and peaked on the Monday after the holiday.

In general, we have been topping the day after holidays this year (President’s Day, Memorial Day and 4th of July) – though for Thanksgiving, we generally turn on the Monday (2007 and 2010) or occasionally the Tuesday (2006) after – though Friday turns have occurred in 2009 and 2011

All in all, we are hourly OB, so between today and Friday, there is a strong probability that we hit a minor top and start the pullback. As Tuesday is a full moon, there is an outside shot that we continue higher till then, as moons, holidays and turns seem to have a strong bond – that is what occurred last Thanksgiving as an example – also, in Feb 2011 for a Friday President’s weekend top….

All in all, it was a very good November opex major bottom!

[johnnywa]

28th is full moon

[TraderJoe]

Hi Pets,
These are not bottom fish stocks and they are up big today but I think they have a ways to go on the upside over the next few months. Anyway, it’s up to you but I’d put them on your watch list. I bought them a while back. IMH & CLSN

[Xian]

Anyone shorting MSFT?

[Cobra]

possible H&S top, wait.

[Petsamo]

Hi Pets,
These are not bottom fish stocks and they are up big today but I think they have a ways to go on the upside over the next few months. Anyway, it’s up to you but I’d put them on your watch list. I bought them a while back. IMH & CLSN

Thanks, but buying high is not my style

[daytradingES]

Low zone

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:17am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/11 ... ay-update/

[Xian]

Political pitfalls:

We all know that politicians come back to "work" this week, so that's a market negative. Only a matter of time before someone says something stupid and the market tanks (could see that panic selling that we didn't have during the previous sell-off.)

More to the point, everyone should beware that politicians doing nothing on fiscal cliff, taxes in particular, is shifting from a low-probability event (post-election happy talk) to high(er) probability event.

I don't want anyone flinging their poo at me, just know that the prospect of "no deal" on taxes is increasing significantly which would lead to short term market turbulence and boardies should plan accordingly.

GL

[stingrey]

Interesting view from stocktiming...all cash for now...but looks like a short may be rewarded...

[Cobra]

volume surge, so might be a rebound here. then we'll see.

[daytradingES]

Sim
NTA

[wayne0708]

Thanks Joe [/quote]
Any suggestion with safari on iphone?

For those using Firefox, the add in app is Reload Every[/quote]

[Petsamo]

Political pitfalls:

We all know that politicians come back to "work" this week, so that's a market negative. Only a matter of time before someone says something stupid and the market tanks (could see that panic selling that we didn't have during the previous sell-off.)

More to the point, everyone should beware that politicians doing nothing on fiscal cliff, taxes in particular, is shifting from a low-probability event (post-election happy talk) to high(er) probability event.

I don't want anyone flinging their poo at me, just know that the prospect of "no deal" on taxes is increasing significantly which would lead to short term market turbulence and boardies should plan accordingly.

GL

The one good thing that Obama's re-election has given us is, we now know what direction the market is going, down.

[fehro]

SPX 15m & 60m. 60 m neckline holding, but 15m could be building a inverse right shoulder.

[Al_Dente]

Intraday tick update:
[233 or 250ma on 1min is roughly equivalent to the 50ma on 5min]

[Xian]

Intraday tick update:
[233 or 250ma on 1min is roughly equivalent to the 50ma on 5min]

1126tick.png

Good morning sleepy head! Finally can start copying your homework. Reminds me of the times when the kid I cheated off in trig missed days at school.

[MrMiyagi]

[L_T]

124.png

That's Friday's close I believe.