12/01/2012 Weekend Update

[uempel]

Al_Dente, you and Harapa never show up at the Totò lately. Something wrong? Cobra is always there Sunday evening, with his little daughter, TraderLady too.

[Harapa]

Al_Dente, you and Harapa never show up at the Totò lately. Something wrong? Cobra is always there Sunday evening, with his little daughter, TraderLady too.

Totò.png

Love to be there but ..... Need directions

[Al_Dente]

Al_Dente, you and Harapa never show up at the Totò lately. Something wrong? Cobra is always there Sunday evening, with his little daughter, TraderLady too

dang uempel, i took a detour and ended up here

[Harapa]

Edit: post deleted by the author.

[KeiZai]

BB what do u think about NG ? Looks like wedgie to me

monthly

never seen P-bar in NG before so don´t know how reliable this one is, but based on weekly/monthly candle I think more weakness ahead...what´s your take boss?

EDIT : seems to me it´s FLAT

[KeiZai]

Copper update : almost there...or maybe done

download/file.php?id=33101&mode=view

[BullBear52x]

BB what do u think about NG ? Looks like wedgie to me

monthly

The attachment NG1.png is no longer available

never seen P-bar in NG before so don´t know how reliable this one is, but based on weekly/monthly candle I think more weakness ahead...what´s your take boss?

The attachment NG2.png is no longer available

EDIT : seems to me it´s FLAT

The attachment NG3.png is no longer available

NG and UNG short term is a sell, no turning insight. here lets look at both of them

NG long term is in the process of base building

swing set up is selling still

UNG watch for support right around mid zerol line of CCI144 on long term

short term swing basis sell to continue, no end in sight.

[KeiZai]

BB what do u think about NG ? Looks like wedgie to me

monthly

NG1.png

never seen P-bar in NG before so don´t know how reliable this one is, but based on weekly/monthly candle I think more weakness ahead...what´s your take boss?

NG2.png

EDIT : seems to me it´s FLAT

NG3.png

NG and UNG short term is a sell, no turning insight. here lets look at both of them

NG long term is in the process of base building

1.JPG

swing set up is selling still

2.JPG

UNG watch for support right around mid zerol line of CCI144 on long term

3.JPG

short term swing basis sell to continue, no end in sight.

4.JPG

Nice BB thanks, will go with sell the rips, hope I will get a chance to get on board

[BullBear52x]

Silver does not look bullish to me.
- ChiOsc is high on the daily - trendline on RSI broke - Open Interest is extremely high

I see weakness in it as well, base on counter trend and trend following short term entry point, I got 33 as pivot point base on many of my silly indicators. so far the countertrend (bears) are looking better here. but dip will be bought.

swing set up is a sell.

[TWT]

SPX: 3 OPTIONS FOR THE BEARISH WAVE (X)

1. Price with an Ending Diagonal will complete the last wave (Y) of (X).
If this is the correct pattern then the current up leg, assumed wave (III) of the ED has to be shorter then 207.77 points
This ending pattern could be done by the end of the first quarter of 2013.

2. From the October 2011 low price, with another DZZ, is unfolding the wave (A) of the second Zig Zag of (X).
If this is the correct pattern, since the up leg off the November 16 low is once again corrective, price should unfold a flat before the kick off of the final wave up of (A). This means that the current move will fail at the September high and will revisit the November low from where it will begin the wave (c) of (A).
If a Flat correction plays out then the wave (A) could top in the area of 1551. The wave (A) will be followed by a wave (B) large pullback maybe at the rising trend line in force since the March 09 low form where the last wave (Y) up will complete the wave (X)
If this is the correct pattern then, obviously the final top of the wave (X) will most likely be prolonged into 2014.

3.An alternative within the latter EW count, in case price does not unfold a flat, instead it breaks above the September´s high establishing the top of the wave (A) with an Ending Diagonal.
If this is the correct count then the current (assumed) wave (v) of the Ending Diagonal cannot exceed above 1551.12

[BullBear52x]

one more chart here, I see the bull strength built up just like most here, but Money is not there, I need to see more buying higher to kick start the up trend buy the dip type, don't see that yet, so to say no new pivot point that I can point out to. for now the market still own one sell the rip in any cases.

[TWT]

SPX SHORT TERM

As I have discussed last Thursday in my opinion price from the November 16 low is unfolding a Double Zig Zag.

If this count is correct then SPX on November 23 has completed the first Zig Zag, while within the second one, which began at the November 28 low, SPX has completed the wave (A) last Thursday.

During the last two days price has been trapped in a sideways move, which is hiding the next directional move.

Since there is absence of impulsive price action we could make the case that price has completed a Triangle wave (B) at 1411.77 in which case next Monday we should expect impulsive follow through to the upside with a wave (C) up.

The assumed wave (C) up has an equality extension target at 1446;

Almost the 1 x 1 target for the wave (Y); while the 0.618 extension is at 1433 (It coincides with the November 6 peak)

If the Triangle pattern plays out then this up leg could extend into the next FOMC on December 12 (or NFP on next Friday).

If next Monday the Triangle is aborted then I expect a shallow pullback wave (B) that should not breach the 0.618 retracement at 1398.53, which coincides with the 10 dma, from where I expect the wave (C) to begin its impulse higher.

Once the wave (C) is in place the following pullback will define if bulls have failed establishing a lower high (Option of a Flat) in which case price will revisit the November 16 low, or one of the two Ending Diagonal options discussed above is panning out, in which case the 200 dma = 1384 will not be breached in any pullback.

The triangle idea looks even better with NDX

[TWT]

SPX: POTENTIAL PIVOTAL PRICE AREAS


1. 50 dma = 1421 (which coincides with the April 2 peak): I expect this area to be reclaimed by the bulls since the assumed wave (Y) would be too small compared to the wave (W)

2. November 6 peak =1433, this is a potential reversal area as it also coincides with the upper Bollinger Band.

3. 1451 = 1 x 1 extension for the assumed wave (Y)

[BullBear52x]

SPX: POTENTIAL PIVOTAL PRICE AREAS


1. 50 dma = 1421 (which coincides with the April 2 peak): I expect this area to be reclaimed by the bulls since the assumed wave (Y) would be too small compared to the wave (W)

2. November 6 peak =1433, this is a potential reversal area as it also coincides with the upper Bollinger Band.

3. 1451 = 1 x 1 extension for the assumed wave (Y)

Thanks TWT, awesome analysis.

[Al_Dente]

Follow the inverted-dollar is still working
30 min

[Al_Dente]

XIV resistance 19.75
support is on a tight leash at 19.00

[ClarkW]

Silver does not look bullish to me.
- ChiOsc is high on the daily - trendline on RSI broke - Open Interest is extremely high

I see weakness in it as well, base on counter trend and trend following short term entry point, I got 33 as pivot point base on many of my silly indicators. so far the countertrend (bears) are looking better here. but dip will be bought.

1.JPG

swing set up is a sell.

2.JPG

Thanks BB. And I agree 100% dip to be bought, last leg up too strong not have another leg in my opinion

[SigmaEcho]

SPX: POTENTIAL PIVOTAL PRICE AREAS


1. 50 dma = 1421 (which coincides with the April 2 peak): I expect this area to be reclaimed by the bulls since the assumed wave (Y) would be too small compared to the wave (W)

2. November 6 peak =1433, this is a potential reversal area as it also coincides with the upper Bolling,er Band.

3. 1451 = 1 x 1 extension for the assumed wave (Y)

Jun low to sep high is 61.8% in time of jun low to nov low. Sep high to nov low is 61.8% of jun low to sep high.
. We are almost at 61.8% of nov low to sep high in price. Algo's rule. Turn?

[KeiZai]

TWT do u have DAX count? I am in dilema with the last wave...I am curious if there is way how to count it as corrective (saw one interesting count where this wave is shown as C of B, but I don´t know I like my more ) what do u think? Thanks mate

Based on Eurostoxx chart I suppose there is more upside after short-term weakness (at least in Europe)

[KeiZai]

Will keep an eye on VIX, there is weekly squeeze with negative momentum, last time it happend at the end of december 2011