12/04/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Small gap down or flat open so the gap might be filled.

On Global ES, I see a weak rebound so far, so probably the current pullback has another leg down?

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/12 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

DAX refuses to pullback but it needs a pullback or at least a consolidation now. it simply cannot travel very long distance then break the resistance directly, it needs take a little break.

[TWT]

The suggested Triangle played out but with a shallow thrust higher as price did not even reached the 0.618 extension = 1433 which also coincides with a cluster of resistance (November 6 peak and Bollinger Band), instead it reversed at the 50 dma= 1420.80

Now we know where a ton of buy stops is located.

This can be considered a sign of weakness and it is a negative for the discussed bullish EWP options that consider the November low a major bottom.

However if price is unfolding a wave (B), in which case the EWP from the September high is not over yet we need to see a deterioration of breadth indicators (The biggest positive for the bulls) since so far the message is bullish.

The bearish reversal is meaningful and it is strengthened by a daily Shooting Star.

Therefore I consider that the Double Zig Zag off the November 16 low is done.

I also believe that this has not ended a likely larger rebound, since there are no negative divergences, hence I expect a multi-day pullback that could be complete by Thursday (Ahead of Friday´s NFP).

I establish the expected target box for the assumed wave (B) pull back in the range 1403 (10dma) – 1393 (20dma).

Yes it is all about moving averages. Obviously the expected pullback has to hold above the 200 dma = 1385

If the wave (B) bottoms in the target box then the next wave (C) up will have an equality target in the range 1468 -1479 (Extension targets are is a theoretical reference so atm we cannot rule out a failure at 1433.

[Denali92]

Same with the EUR/ USD!

-D

DAX refuses to pullback but it needs a pullback or at least a consolidation now. it simply cannot travel very long distance then break the resistance directly, it needs take a little break.

[Cobra]

the open.

[Cobra]

members only update at 9:47am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/12 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

possible 3 push down, so it's time for 2 legged rebound?

[Al_Dente]

Relative strength
Worth a look today

[Al_Dente]

Nyadv only 1600 (chop at the moment)
But the AD and volume ratios are supporting this little “rally” sqz

[Cobra]

now it's the 2nd leg up as expected.

[Cobra]

hopefully a H&S bottom here.

[jademann]

aapl down 1.4% already at 10.22am

[Petsamo]

QQQ is having a serious problem

[jademann]

This is probably the reason. Thats the problem aapl became the market, at least with tech.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 08918.html

[Mr. BachNut]

Still short.
Nothing to report really.
If yesterday was the extent of the pullback, the trade will fail.
If there is some further decline in the days ahead, it won't.
I continue to think strength will get sold over the next week or two as funds book tax gains and losses in the 2012 year. (Not to mention that cliff thing.)
I would like to see the MO wander back to the zero line or SPX to go test the 200 day MA.

[Cobra]

no it's not H&S bottom, it's 100% MM up which means the rebound is weak, no good.

[KaZoom]

aapl down 1.4% already at 10.22am

AAPL caught support at 13 dema at 576.32

[jademann]

aapl now 575.5. what are everyones rules for break of support or resistance? I have never been able to find a good rule for this.

[daytradingES]

Paging RF

I'm not sure what " bull TLs" are?

Are these the dotted lines.
If so good numbers!

ON the ES found support at the bull TL, made a DB then a .618 retracement to a HL and has been trading sideways around yesterday's RTH close waiting for a flat open I expect today RTH session to trade between the bull TLs with a possible test of the globex low.

The attachment hjdryES_12-12_(30_Min)__12_4_2012.jpg is no longer available

Am est
H/L est= 1414.00 1398.00
Lots of quandry today will it stall at 1411 or go to 1414-1415 area? I'm going for the higher 1413.75 50% from 1424.75 to 1402.50