12/08/2012 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming.

It's close to overbought area but not overbought yet, so guess still some up rooms ahead. In a strong up trend a negative divergence must be formed first before a meaningful pullback is possible.

[Cobra]

II and AAII

[Cobra]

2 hollow red bar forming a double bottom plus record low public opinion about YEN, I think Yen might be bottom here which may put pressure on the stock market the next week as carry trade may unwind once yen rise sharply.

[Royal Flush]

I received a sell signal a week ago from a hook in NYMO, ROC 9 and NYADV over 1900. However, unlike any of the prior sell signals including those that have made a subsequent LH such as the one after the QE3 rally (recent top) the indicators are not currently bearish. RSI 2 has made a HH, STO 5,3,3 & MFI 8 has hooked up and NYMO has hooked horizontal. I think the market needs to go higher before a significant pull back occurs.

[Royal Flush]

Quote:
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In recent days, I have gotten into the habit of covering a lot of longer term trading information into the Emini Market Open reports on You Tube. I will try to stop doing this and stay within the constraints of the day. There is a method to my madness however. This is because the market rejected downward cycling largely in the last week and the ranges are contracting. This is consistent with the holiday market seasonal / scenario that is not uncommon. This is bolstered further by some good reports today and an FOMC who has a vested interest in pushing the markets higher (if they can). This all adds up to a bullish overall sentiment that may persist for a while. This can often translate into very narrow ranges that can make shorter term trading difficult. For example, the entire range of the last 6 trading days in the Russell TF futures is 15.2 points. Keep this in mind as a possibility during this season.

This coming week we have the FOMC meeting that will likely also be dealt with delicately. This occurs on Wednesday in a week that has a fairly busy report schedule. The only day next week that does not have reports in Monday. Thursday and Wednesday market mood will likely be flavored by the FOMC and the the remaining two days will express the sentiment that comes out of this.

This last week was largely one of consolidation as the natural down cycle was short lived. The market is consolidating both locally in the recent week as well as on the longer time frames. This region around 1406 that we mentioned in recent weeks has then become the support area for the current push higher.
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To see Rob's charts:
http://markettradersjournal.com/

[johnnywa]

S&P 500 stocks above 20 ma is at 82% which leaves little upside ,we correct when we hit from here to 95% ,95 being extreme. So we have new moon Thursday(high) FOMC Tue-Wed,Fiscal cliff intensifying,so we hit upper 80's to 90% next week that should be a excellent shorting opportunity

[Royal Flush]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming.

It's close to overbought area but not overbought yet, so guess still some up rooms ahead. In a strong up trend a negative divergence must be formed first before a meaningful pullback is possible.

Hi Cobra, would you please comment on the divergence on the NYMO over the last week. The NYMO is significantly lower while the SPX has changed little.
This is one of your setups I believe:
"NYMO SELL SETUP. The original idea is here: 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch. This setup is designed to catch the “TOP”. It’s always very risky to catch..."
From:
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.ca/200 ... model.html

[wayne0708]

Dear Lord!
May the next move be a BIG one whether it's from AAPL or SPX.

[ClarkW]

I received a sell signal a week ago from a hook in NYMO, ROC 9 and NYADV over 1900. However, unlike any of the prior sell signals including those that have made a subsequent LH such as the one after the QE3 rally (recent top) the indicators are not currently bearish. RSI 2 has made a HH, STO 5,3,3 & MFI 8 has hooked up and NYMO has hooked horizontal. I think the market needs to go higher before a significant pull back occurs.

sc.png

Outstanding chart, Royal Flush. Hope you don't mind if I borrow it

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming.

It's close to overbought area but not overbought yet, so guess still some up rooms ahead. In a strong up trend a negative divergence must be formed first before a meaningful pullback is possible.

Hi Cobra, would you please comment on the divergence on the NYMO over the last week. The NYMO is significantly lower while the SPX has changed little.
This is one of your setups I believe:
"NYMO SELL SETUP. The original idea is here: 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch. This setup is designed to catch the “TOP”. It’s always very risky to catch..."
From:
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.ca/200 ... model.html

sc.png

That doesn't work as good as past now. Usually positive divergence work well because the price always favors bulls. Negative divergence, simply, you don't know when to work. It'll work, but it takes longer time than you thought.

[BullBear52x]

Paging KeiZai on UNG and ^NG

First I want to thank ClarkW for reminding me of my goofiness on NG chart instead of ^NG.
to correct the mistake I throw in all of the future NG beneath UNG UNG shorter term is hanging by the cliff, do or die for the NG bulls I see strong suppor right about here. trading below 20.24 I will be really worry for bulls here.

[BullBear52x]

This can really break someone's heart

[BullBear52x]

I can see the potential, but no fire under the belly. need to do more here to regain the up trend mid to long term status.

[Cobra]

Summary of this week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=751&p=108249#p108249

[Cobra]

Stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=758&p=108251#p108251

[ClarkW]

$NATGAS Weekly. Brown trendline rejected price. The lime green trendline goes back to 1992. Would be perfect to see it drop below it to about 38% fib level, staying within the channel and heading higher. Talk about wishful thinking

[daytradingES]

Review 10 for week to 7 Dec 2012
http://screencast.com/t/Kg3pkpYdOW

gold:
last week: sideways below the prior week, small triangle
next week: direction unclear perhaps a slight bounce to 1722 and then down?

TSX:
last week: sideways making a rectangle (no chance to buy HXD < $8.50)
next week : (see ES comments)

ES:
last week : double top at prior resistance of 1424
next week : likely down
(but if it can break up decisively through 1424 -not just a quick stop-run peak of 15 minutes then up & away!)

NTA
IHIT

[ClarkW]

Cobra, to piggy back on one of the stocks that are on your long screen report. Here's an interesting article on STZ regarding a December pattern that has worked 19 of 20 times. Article also includes patterns for other stocks in December.
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analy ... z2EUwmW5Fv

[daytradingES]

This can really break someone's heart

Hi BB - why is the CRB a line chart?
-just curious not a complaint

[BullBear52x]

This can really break someone's heart

Hi BB - why is the CRB a line chart?
-just curious not a complaint

it's stockcharts.com thing, no candle data for it?. I use $CCI for charting instead of $CRB they are of the same.