01/04/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

if indeed a range day, this rebound might bring spy back to the range top.

[Mr. BachNut]

Market Neutral.
Been taking a break from equities.

My composite trend indicator is long and strong.
My summation index signal switched to long at the close yesterday.

I am looking to honor the above signals by re-establishing some longs soon.
So far, the big gap looks like a continuation gap and not an exhaustion gap, which brings a measured move target into play.
The market needs to turn down (significantly) today or maybe at Monday's open IMO for an exhaustion interpretation.
So, I am still waiting and watching.

I am also seeing divergences in a number of indicators I care about that undermine the apparent strength in price and my indicator scores.
The action in the currency and commodity markets also doesn't jive with equities at the moment.
So, if I am going to play bull, it will be paranoid bull with conservative size and exit ready.

At the risk of being cynical, the most bullish aspect of things is that Mr. Market may not want to change trend until everyone is back in the pool.
Nothing gets everyone into the pool like new highs and breaking thresholds (like SPX 1500), which are within reach.
So, as usual, I don't know what will happen. I can see trade going either way or both at the moment but probably up over time.
Also as usual, I'll be watching the closing action today for clues.

[Al_Dente]

I think UST is about to get bought. 10yr looks to have completed a nice A-B-C correction. could mean the opposite for stox, fwiw

Yes in the past RSI line served as a good support here, but overall picture is not nice (but divergence is in place)

Boss everyone on the net is blaming Ben for the bond action
How do u chart the Ben factor?
Example here is schwab research (big grain of salt) blabla last night:
“While any news on the Fed ending its QE program could spook the market, the negative effect on stock prices is likely to be short-lived. The effect will likely be felt most in the bond market. The stock market will probably benefit from the outflow of money from the bonds. On a short term basis, momentum remains bullish. Near term downside looks limited. Expect buying on the dips.”

(miss u)

[rc1269]

I think UST is about to get bought. 10yr looks to have completed a nice A-B-C correction. could mean the opposite for stox, fwiw

Yes in the past RSI line served as a good support here, but overall picture is not nice (but divergence is in place)

Boss everyone on the net is blaming Ben for the bond action
How do u chart the Ben factor?
Example here is schwab research (big grain of salt) blabla last night:
“While any news on the Fed ending its QE program could spook the market, the negative effect on stock prices is likely to be short-lived. The effect will likely be felt most in the bond market. The stock market will probably benefit from the outflow of money from the bonds. On a short term basis, momentum remains bullish. Near term downside looks limited. Expect buying on the dips.”

(miss u)

ben is only a small part of it. the 10yr was 15bp wider from mid-day 12/31 until yesterday before the FOMC mins. they were 30bp wider from the 12/6 low until yesterday, before the minutes. post FOMC mins it added another 11bp to the high. but you could hardly blame the whole backup on Ben.
retail brokerage is about the last place i'd look for insight in the fixed income markets. only part of it is Ben, and only the last 10bp at that. there are lots of buyers waiting at the 2% yield point, IMO

[skittlesmds]

Vix at 13.92

[KeiZai]

I think UST is about to get bought. 10yr looks to have completed a nice A-B-C correction. could mean the opposite for stox, fwiw

Yes in the past RSI line served as a good support here, but overall picture is not nice (but divergence is in place)

Boss everyone on the net is blaming Ben for the bond action
How do u chart the Ben factor?
Example here is schwab research (big grain of salt) blabla last night:
“While any news on the Fed ending its QE program could spook the market, the negative effect on stock prices is likely to be short-lived. The effect will likely be felt most in the bond market. The stock market will probably benefit from the outflow of money from the bonds. On a short term basis, momentum remains bullish. Near term downside looks limited. Expect buying on the dips.”

(miss u)

Agreed that´s a thing I am worried about a little (don´t wanna miss start of the bull market) because if the fed quits doing QE the safety trade in bonds is gone and that means money will be put into equities...look at the italian index for example (but there are signs everywhere AUD/JPY is probably the biggest one)

Italian index looks like bottomed for a long time, inverse H&S breakout with potential double bottom other indexes breaking from long lasting triangles etc....very tricky market atm I am not pretty sure if we are ready for new bull but too many people are looking to short this market so you never know

[Al_Dente]

Nyadv >2000
This is now a “Bull Trend Day” if nyadv can hold above 2000
(someone please send this memo to spy, thanks)

[BullBear52x]

My short term MACD got bearish crossed + over bought, my view is now change to sell the rip today (make sure it's really ripe) or evil chaser below 145.34. finance is strongest link, all other are so so for pull back. so many people including me are waiting for next dip to be bought market knows it.

[TWT]

GOLD: The Leading Diagonal could be done

[BullBear52x]

CCI is still pointing down for GLD or SLV to be of any interest just yet. agreed with Cobra, they are more bearish than bullish right now.

and here check out how CCI and DBA are leading. Inflationary is my guess, cheap foods.

[TraderJoe]

GOLDMAN: These Are The 40 Most Undervalued Stocks In The Market
Big upside opportunities
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman- ... ide-2013-1

[BullBear52x]

Yesterday's sell was a success, so's why not continue eh?

[KeiZai]

GOLDMAN: These Are The 40 Most Undervalued Stocks In The Market
Big upside opportunities
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman- ... ide-2013-1

Uf thanks god I don't own none of them

[TraderJoe]

GOLDMAN: These Are The 40 Most Undervalued Stocks In The Market
Big upside opportunities
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman- ... ide-2013-1

Uf thanks god I don't own none of them

[ellenlin]

Hi Cobra, can you make more comments on AAPL please? Thank you very much!

[BullBear52x]

IPAD really poke the hole in Qs.see money flow, looks very toppy to me.

[Cobra]

back to the range top indeed. again, if it's a range day, should fall back to the range bottom soon. let's see.

[Tabby]

R2K is getting more and more barish to me. $Rut can go up to 881 but needs to go sideway or down to get corrected. It is time for short term pullback.

[Al_Dente]

I think UST is about to get bought. 10yr looks to have completed a nice A-B-C correction. could mean the opposite for stox, fwiw

Yes in the past RSI line served as a good support here, but overall picture is not nice (but divergence is in place)

Boss everyone on the net is blaming Ben for the bond action
How do u chart the Ben factor?
Example here is schwab research (big grain of salt) blabla last night:
“While any news on the Fed ending its QE program could spook the market, the negative effect on stock prices is likely to be short-lived. The effect will likely be felt most in the bond market. The stock market will probably benefit from the outflow of money from the bonds. On a short term basis, momentum remains bullish. Near term downside looks limited. Expect buying on the dips.”
(miss u)

Agreed that´s a thing I am worried about a little (don´t wanna miss start of the bull market) because if the fed quits doing QE the safety trade in bonds is gone and that means money will be put into equities...look at the italian index for example (but there are signs everywhere AUD/JPY is probably the biggest one)
Italian index looks like bottomed for a long time, inverse H&S breakout with potential double bottom other indexes breaking from long lasting triangles etc....very tricky market atm I am not pretty sure if we are ready for new bull but too many people are looking to short this market so you never know

As usual Pasta is confused
Here is my VERY SIMPLISTIC understanding
There was a Ben “put” on bonds
A “floor” if you will
As long as Ben was buying bonds = bonds up/rates down
If/when he stops the manipulation, folks exit bonds = bonds down/rates up, and we should see the bond-sale-proceeds show up as buying long stocks… somewhere…maybe the flow into Asian equities will continue too…
Seems that Ben doesn’t even need to stop, just the SUGGESTION that he will stop soon is enough to turn the bond market all honey-badger
(pasta = too simple boss? or just plain dumb?)

My intraday currency pairs say that eur/usd hates this, aud/usd dislikes this, but aud/jpy LOVES it (??)

[KeiZai]

Will short this bitch again soon....megaphone?

XIV