rc1269 wrote:Gonna see another rally again...just a matter of time...
haha really? show me the money.

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I don't think you should track bonds by charting the TLT. it just doesn't perform the same over a long timeframe. here's the 10yr tresury yield over the last 10 years. looks to me like nothing more than a little bear flag in a long term trend of lower yields. we're a long way away from confirming a breakout.[/quote]
I watch both TLT and TNX...and I use TMF to trade...but in order to trade it, you have to look at the chart of either TLT or TMF...
To me time is more important that price...so when the technicals are setting up the trade at the right TIME on the chart of what I am trading (TMF), then I trade it...I can't trade off of the 10 year treasury yield....[/quote]
i hear ya. my point being - if I and the other treasury traders see a buy signal on the 30yr, we're going to buy it, regardless of what TLT says. then TLT will be forced to rip, despite what retail flows into and out of TLT are doing. ultimately TLT is still formulated to track 20+ year treasuries, regardless of its own technical setups. if it doesn't i can just arb it all day long, just like guys do on equity ETFs. just my view. cheers[/quote]
I'm not looking to day trade TLT...I'm looking for a longer more profitable swing, so maybe we are looking at it differently...[/quote]
i could have mistaken your initial post, but i was attempting to agree with your view that longer term TLT still had another rally in it[/quote]
Maybe we're married....isn't that what couples do?...fight about something they agree on...
