Let's see if we can make a breakout here. I have a little little little little doubt here though.
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OK, breakout, let's see if this bar can follow-through it.
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Critical, breakdown below here will be a small double top. Bull hope a little breakdown then sharply reversal, trapping bears to form a failed double top then the market can go much higher as bear has to run for cover, so critical point here.
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Jennyahwu wrote:Cobra, what do u think of Oil?
thanks
As of yesterday, WTIC still holds the breakout point, so the chart looks bullish. A consolidation over the breakout point would be very bullish.
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Cobra wrote:Critical, breakdown below here will be a small double top. Bull hope a little breakdown then sharply reversal, trapping bears to form a failed double top then the market can go much higher as bear has to run for cover, so critical point here.
indeed a failed double top. 1 TICK below neck then reversal. SPX 1320 is ~5day MA.
Cobra wrote:Critical, breakdown below here will be a small double top. Bull hope a little breakdown then sharply reversal, trapping bears to form a failed double top then the market can go much higher as bear has to run for cover, so critical point here.
Anyone else here concerned about the first of the month rally. Look at September 1, October 1, December 1, January 1, February 1...
I really want to short this bounce right now, but damn. There's real concern about going short into the first of the month. We've massive money enter this market on the first. Oh yeah. Go back even further. August 1 is also a huge day in the markets. So yeah. I think I might sit this one out at least until we pass the first of the month.
I think its really worth going back and looking at the data. It's not something worth messing around with because so many HUGE up days on those days.
Edit: below is a list of what happened on the first trading session of the month. This is for the S&P 500
February 1: +21 or 1.6%
January 3: +14 or 1.1%
December 1: +26 or 2.2%
November 1: +1 .08%
October 1: +5 or .4%
September 1: +31 or 2.95%
August 1: +24 or 2.17%
Notice that on some of these months, like in July, the market had a huge up day like 2-3 sessions into the month. That was very common when we didn't see a huge up day on the first trading session.
Last edited by andyzaky on Fri Feb 25, 2011 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.