02/02/2013 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

Charts for Bears:

1) Citi's Panic/Euphoria guage for US stocks has only been more euphoric on two occasions - Q4 2000 & 2008

2) Goldman's S&P 500 positioning has only been this extremely long-biased on two occasions - Q4 2008 & Q2 2011

3) Barclays' credit-equity divergence has only been this over-bought stocks on two occasions - Q4 2008 & Q2 2012.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-0 ... nes-hopers

[Harapa]

Charts for Bears:
1) Citi's Panic/Euphoria guage for US stocks has only been more euphoric on two occasions - Q4 2000 & 2008

Ah, not again.
This, unfortunately is a product of "back fitting and the art of selective memory" as noted by many including this deep down analysis.
I don't think anybody remembers its extremely Bullish posture in June 2011?
"Does Citigroup's Panic/Euphoria Model Work by G. Vrba"
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/news ... group3.php
The above article also shows a graph of 2007-2008 period (published in November 6, 2008) which predicted a positive return 12 months after Jan and April 2008. Rest is history
And here, author shows how readings in this model get adjusted (to bring it in line with reality)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/104444- ... -indicator
Note to AL: Please don't take this personal.

[Harapa]

TRIN: Currently bullish equities. However, a breakout of upper trend line will be bearish for equities.

[Cobra]

One question for you guys:

What about that auto spending cut if no deal is reached by the end of Feb? It's postponed along with debt ceiling or it's no longer important or it's forgotten?

[Dandy46]

Though debt ceiling was extended, the 'sequester" items still take effect March 1. Medicare and SS not effected by sequester.

[BullBear52x]

BB san I see what u see

some charts

IWM : I cann't count the up leg as impulsive IMO they want to play irregular what is actually quite often in distribution phase...bear shakeout then the bulls rinse and repeat...this count can make a fool of everyone ....we will see...conclusion: if u are bear be cautious after 5waves down with divergence

The attachment RUSSELL.png is no longer available

Bigger picture is showing some resistance here, I like the weekly candle btw

The attachment RUSSELL2.png is no longer available

Same with SPX two cycles have profit taking areas here

The attachment SPX-1555.png is no longer available

And my good old buddy aka "when old friends get together after a longer time"
If my count is correct (and it is ) we will see nice bounce soon (too bad looks like last one before downtrend resumes)

The attachment DX2.png is no longer available

The ultimate conclusion: I am ready for some weakness then might back up to set ST top /for a month or so? who knows enjoy the w/e

howgh

Thanks boss it better not be another zig zags. and here is what I see on CLF

I got a buy on it, break out with positive Macd histo will confirmed it, a trade below 35.53 is not acceptable.

[Al_Dente]

GDX is bouncing off a double bottom but won’t confirm it until it tests and bests 43.15
30 min chart
(A medium-term $GOLD and GDX and ratio chart is posted here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/02 ... g-signals/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8gjyS-QEVs

[BullBear52x]

Here is some thing for the over all market from my corner. I see $CCI/CBR indexes are favoring commodity bulls of late, looking at $CCI looks like it survived H&S

the $USD King green back and DBA are a little conflicting here. Dollar acting like it will fall off a cliff and DBA here is running into a resistance already, so to say inflation is in the offing I will wait a little more here. DBA hit influence resistance area, cheap food still, need to break above 28ish.

DBV, my carry trade indicator, it is now regain a strength, a trade above 26.85 bears will continue their strugle life

[BullBear52x]

bear foods

[Al_Dente]

I don’t know the components inside Barry’s version of Merrill’s “Sell Side Indicator” (hence I can't track it myself), but it appears bullish to me, especially his stats at the bottom: “The S&P 500 has risen 10% in the six months since sentiment bottomed. Historical returns are typically up 24% and 46% in the 12 and 24 months that follow such as bottom.”

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/wa ... Picture%29

[BullBear52x]

GLD and SLV as long as these guys MACD stay positive, I am bullish on them. have a wonderful day. again, all my charts are for entertainment only

[BullBear52x]

One more for the road, is Dr. Copper moving on expansion phase? looking strong here

or this type of industrial expansion?

[Al_Dente]

“Apple analysts: Stupid or lazy?”
[folks: i don’t make this stuff up]
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/02/ ... -analysts/

[BullBear52x]

“Apple analysts: Stupid or lazy?”
[folks: i don’t make this stuff up]
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/02/ ... -analysts/

now you know why FA is so much time consume and boring, look at our GDP, Sandy storm hello, the fact is if US economy can not withstand a storm like Sandy I'll be worry regardless of how much human optimism should take hold. Thanks for all your great post Dr. Al.

[Al_Dente]

“Apple analysts: Stupid or lazy?”
[folks: i don’t make this stuff up]
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/02/ ... -analysts/

now you know why FA is so much time consume and boring, look at our GDP, Sandy storm hello, the fact is if US economy can not withstand a storm like Sandy I'll be worry regardless of how much human optimism should take hold. Thanks for all your great post Dr. Al.

"""""now you know why FA [FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS] is so much time consume and boring..."""

[Al_Dente]

Direct link to Bill Gross on the history of the “big bang” in the credit markets
“When Minsky formulated his theory in the early 70s, credit outstanding in the U.S. totaled $3 trillion. Today, at $56 trillion and counting,
it is a monster … a supernova …”
(approved for Intermediates, maybe not so much for Newbies)
http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/ ... rnova.aspx

“Bonds, James Bonds”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGV7CvD8ufk

[3DM]

hi folks, i hope this might be of interest:

Capital Markets Institute @ Rotman

Wednesday, February 13, 2013, 9:00am – 12:00pm - Event Hall (2F/South Building) Rotman School of Management, 105 St George St., Event Hall 2nd floor

Toronto, Ontario


TOPIC: High Frequency Trading: Devil or Angel. 

MODERATOR: Eric Kirzner, Director, Rotman Capital Markets Institute; John H. Watson Chair in Value Investing and; Professor of Finance, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto

KEYNOTE: Ingrid M. Werner, Martin and Andrew Murrer Professor of Finance, Finance Department Chair, Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University will provide an overview of academic research on high frequency trading and an update on the regulatory environment. 

DISCUSSANTS: Peter Haynes, Managing Director, Index Products, TD Securities and Doug Clark, Managing Director, Research, ITG Canada will share their experiences on the impact of high frequency trading on the capital markets.



REGISTRATION FEE: $30 plus HST; For Rotman/UofT Alumni $20 plus HST

TO REGISTER: Pre-registration is mandatory please <https://secure.e-registernow.com/cgi-bi ... =1349>sign up here or visit

<http://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/events>ww ... .ca/events. Space is limited so if you have not already registered, please do so online by 5pm on February 12.

[Cobra]

Though debt ceiling was extended, the 'sequester" items still take effect March 1. Medicare and SS not effected by sequester.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

So since we still will have auto spending cut if no deal reached before Mar 1, why no media mention this?

[Al_Dente]

Bellwether semiconductors stand out, with QQQ in grey behind price.
SMH has been overextended (> 2 standard deviations above its 200 ma) for about 10 trading days. Logic says it will need to pullback for a breather soon. HOWEVER, the reality is that it remained largely above that 2 std-dev (with bounces) for about four months in late 2011/early 2012 (not on this chart).

[Dandy46]

Though debt ceiling was extended, the 'sequester" items still take effect March 1. Medicare and SS not effected by sequester.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

So since we still will have auto spending cut if no deal reached before Mar 1, why no media mention this?

Harry Reid started the ball rolling today (democrats court up till now). Elephants not sure what to do! They are now being blamed for everything (dugh!) Donkeys are afraid how to respond (dugh!), like let the 'sequester' go through. Now Donkeys are in the Bind! Guess what?? Feburary only has 28 days and politicians can't count that high and they will 'kick the can again' at the last minute. OY and 'shite' as Dr. Al says. The 'big market guys' will squeeze, rinse, and repeat again. You wonder how and when the Donkeys and Elephants got their names.