02/02/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Though debt ceiling was extended, the 'sequester" items still take effect March 1. Medicare and SS not effected by sequester.

Thanks and welcome aboard!

So since we still will have auto spending cut if no deal reached before Mar 1, why no media mention this?

Harry Reid started the ball rolling today (democrats court up till now). Elephants not sure what to do! They are now being blamed for everything (dugh!) Donkeys are afraid how to respond (dugh!), like let the 'sequester' go through. Now Donkeys are in the Bind! Guess what?? Feburary only has 28 days and politicians can't count that high and they will 'kick the can again' at the last minute. OY and 'shite' as Dr. Al says. The 'big market guys' will squeeze, rinse, and repeat again. You wonder how and when the Donkeys and Elephants got their names.

Delay another 2 months is not an option, because it'll affect debt ceiling, unless they want to delay debt ceiling again, or they have to delay the auto cut to July after debt ceiling which doesn't make sense as they need have a budget first before discuss debt ceiling. So they have to make something in Feb. Let's see. Soon media will remind us.

[Al_Dente]

Though debt ceiling was extended, the 'sequester" items still take effect March 1. Medicare and SS not effected by sequester.

Thanks and welcome aboard!
So since we still will have auto spending cut if no deal reached before Mar 1, why no media mention this?

Harry Reid started the ball rolling today (democrats court up till now). Elephants not sure what to do! They are now being blamed for everything (dugh!) Donkeys are afraid how to respond (dugh!), like let the 'sequester' go through. Now Donkeys are in the Bind! Guess what?? Feburary only has 28 days and politicians can't count that high and they will 'kick the can again' at the last minute. OY and 'shite' as Dr. Al says. The 'big market guys' will squeeze, rinse, and repeat again. You wonder how and when the Donkeys and Elephants got their names.

“””""Feburary only has 28 days and politicians can't count that high”””""
ha ha that cracked me up Dandy, as I love true stories
Welcome to Cobra Land

Go 9ers

[Dandy46]

Go 49ers! Will win unless Ray Lewis 'gores' Frank Gore with anters. Running always the trump card in big games. Though Ray Rice is awesome too. No bets on this game.

[Al_Dente]

Sandy Hook Elementary School Choir
WOW

[kongen]

al dente, your comments on TLT are interesting. For part of my portfolio, I use a seasonal strategy ("sell in May, etc). I go long IWM, MDY, SPY in Summer / Fall and exit in Spring. Timing is determined by some complicated signals. In Spring, I go long TLT, which often goes op 2-6 months as stocks go down. I am looking for TLT to drop back to around the 2012 lows before turning up again, around 110.

[Al_Dente]

al dente, your comments on TLT are interesting. For part of my portfolio, I use a seasonal strategy ("sell in May, etc). I go long IWM, MDY, SPY in Summer / Fall and exit in Spring. Timing is determined by some complicated signals. In Spring, I go long TLT, which often goes op 2-6 months as stocks go down. I am looking for TLT to drop back to around the 2012 lows before turning up again, around 110.

I like TLT 107 (test double bottom) as a medium/longer-term target; it should take a while to get there.
Just note that if (IF) this is the start of the “epic unwind” of bonds, at some point yr TLT strategy might stop working, but the charts will tell us that, not all the “experts.”
thanks kongen

[kenttown]

Delay another 2 months is not an option, because it'll affect debt ceiling, unless they want to delay debt ceiling again, or they have to delay the auto cut to July after debt ceiling which doesn't make sense as they need have a budget first before discuss debt ceiling. So they have to make something in Feb. Let's see. Soon media will remind us.

There are 11 days left in Feb congressional calendar (House). Senate is 14 days.

[Dandy46]

According to Business Insider, "The debt-ceiling bill is that it is not technically a clean hike in the nation's debt limit. It's a suspension of the debt ceiling for a certain time period. On May 19, the debt limit will be raised by an amount "necessary to fund commitment incurred by the Federal Government that required payment." The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that number will be around $450 billion.

If it passes and is signed into law quickly, it could delay the next potential debt-ceiling fight until August.

Now, the fiscal battles move on to sequestration — $1.2 trillion worth of cuts that will start kicking in."

I think they may kick the can again - 'can' never seems to get dents. After the bad GPD report this last week due to cut in government spending, all parties should see the sequester as a problem. Personally, I hope they deal with it in February. They can also pass different budgets in both chambers that will delay 'true' agreement on budget till August before sending to Obama for signature. I'm sure they will both pass a budget in their chamber so they can still get paid.

Since I'm more of a long term investor and not day trader or short swing trader that a lot of people on this board seem to be, this kick the can scenario concerns me. Being a novice at day and swing trade, I really appreciate all the good charts and ideas that are presented on this board to help me learn about intermediate trading goals. Thanks to all!

[Al_Dente]

Bespoke on SPX after the 49ers win:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1152281 ... view&ifp=0

[Cobra]

According to Business Insider, "The debt-ceiling bill is that it is not technically a clean hike in the nation's debt limit. It's a suspension of the debt ceiling for a certain time period. On May 19, the debt limit will be raised by an amount "necessary to fund commitment incurred by the Federal Government that required payment." The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that number will be around $450 billion.

If it passes and is signed into law quickly, it could delay the next potential debt-ceiling fight until August.

Now, the fiscal battles move on to sequestration — $1.2 trillion worth of cuts that will start kicking in."

I think they may kick the can again - 'can' never seems to get dents. After the bad GPD report this last week due to cut in government spending, all parties should see the sequester as a problem. Personally, I hope they deal with it in February. They can also pass different budgets in both chambers that will delay 'true' agreement on budget till August before sending to Obama for signature. I'm sure they will both pass a budget in their chamber so they can still get paid.

Since I'm more of a long term investor and not day trader or short swing trader that a lot of people on this board seem to be, this kick the can scenario concerns me. Being a novice at day and swing trade, I really appreciate all the good charts and ideas that are presented on this board to help me learn about intermediate trading goals. Thanks to all!

Thanks. Any type of investors are welcome here. We can even have a long-term investment forum if we can get a few more people willing to contribute.

I'm actually very surprised. I asked the cut spending question here and my Chinese forum and twitter, so far only you and 2 others responded. Really strange, it seems the problem has gone all of sudden, nobody even cares this anymore.

Kick the can down the road again? Then US might be downgraded again.

[gappy]

al dente, your comments on TLT are interesting. For part of my portfolio, I use a seasonal strategy ("sell in May, etc). I go long IWM, MDY, SPY in Summer / Fall and exit in Spring. Timing is determined by some complicated signals. In Spring, I go long TLT, which often goes op 2-6 months as stocks go down. I am looking for TLT to drop back to around the 2012 lows before turning up again, around 110.

payroll-tax-historical.gif

April Fools day drop in tax rev's after bonus season, never fails. Go niners!

[TraderGirl]

This week there are three turns...Monday, Thurs, Fri...

It's possible to see a pullback early in the week, but there is a strong bullish aspect on the 7th (Venus trine Jupiter), so I am inclined to think we get a pullback for wave 'b", then up into wave "c" of 5.

It appears we are in the 5th wave of C of the (5th) wave of a POTENTIAL ending diagonal...if that is the case there can be an overthrow of the wedge...but usually comes back into the wedge soon thereafter.. (My alternate count suggests we are in wave (3) of the ending diagonal)

Ending diagonals are in three wave zig-zag patterns as we currently have...

[TraderGirl]

Zero Hedge...

Market on the brink...

[uempel]

Zero Hedge...

Market on the brink...

I'm not German and I don't live there, but zerohedge's superficial knowledge ain't very helpful here. Electricity prices in Germany are a complex issue, not necessarily driven by he market but by policy strokes: upcoming elections, closure of atomic power plants and so on.

Prices were pushed up by the plans to close all atomic power plants by 2022. Due to upcoming elections some politicians might be rethinking this issue, so the bubbly price is falling.

On the long run the strength of the € might be a better key to assess the strength of the export driven German economy...

At the moment liquidity is fueling the markets and DAX momentum is ok - short term a bit weaker that the US but definitely not a "sell"

[uempel]

I discovered this Fib cycle early Monday morning, it indicates a biggish move. Note that it's difficult to get it right over a long time span, so the signal which points to Monday or Tuesday might be off by a few days. Nevertheless - bulls like me don't like this signal and have to be careful

[PanamaJack]

Everyone vote for the snake!