02/05/2013 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

ATTENTION
What happened to all the bear-stops just above the new hi?
They should have been taken out and squeezed
Six cents above the old hi…….and no bear stops??
I don’t get it (trap?.... just reloading?....)
Anyone?

[Royal Flush]

$SPX officially new multi-year high but $VIX no new low.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /258792096;

XIV hasn't even made it to the bear trend line yet.

[TraderGirl]

TLT...This concerns me for the bull case...

Thoughts anyone??

[johnnywa]

SPX trendline only a few points away...

Tradergirl,astro wise we see pullback tomorrow than up Thur-Fri to possible 1524-31???

[TraderJoe]

I bought the UVXY Feb 10 puts at the close yesterday for .20 and just sold them for .40. I am really disappointed, I thought they would return more with this big move.

[StudentBill]

Operation Date1 Settlement Date Operation Type Maturity Range Expected Purchase Size
February 1, 2013 February 4, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2023 – 02/15/2031 $0.75 - $1.00 billion
February 4, 2013 February 5, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2020 – 11/15/2022 $2.75 - $3.50 billion
February 5, 2013 February 6, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 – 11/15/2042 $1.25 - $1.75 billion
February 6, 2013 February 7, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 11/15/2018 – 01/31/2020 $3.00 - $3.75 billion
February 7, 2013 February 8, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 – 11/15/2042 $1.25 - $1.75 billion
February 8, 2013 February 11, 2013 Outright TIPS Purchases 04/15/2017 – 02/15/2042 $1.00 - $1.50 billion


With POMO's all week we should be "Never Goin Down AGAIN" but it doesn't feel like it right now.

[gappy]

Fresh hi on a 5m RED shooting star thingie?
I don’t think so………..

(gap up: pls cue mcenroe “u cannot b serious”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekQ_Ja02gTY Sorry, I crashed. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVz1ATv7vR8

[Al_Dente]

shite board I’m just talkin’ to myself here
what’s next Al Dente?
mmmmm another try
I’m out as maybe/guessing gap down open manana

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r594pxUjcz4

[TraderGirl]

SPX trendline only a few points away...

Tradergirl,astro wise we see pullback tomorrow than up Thur-Fri to possible 1524-31???

SPY...yes possible...check out SPY..upper trendline around 153

[Al_Dente]

thanks gap up
I luv that mcenroe clip

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YErXozSHW9w

[skittlesmds]

ATTENTION
What happened to all the bear-stops just above the new hi?
They should have been taken out and squeezed
Six cents above the old hi…….and no bear stops??
I don’t get it (trap?.... just reloading?....)
Anyone?

I don't have an answer. I've been wrong for the past couple of weeks so I'm taking a breather trying to figure out this market.

[TraderGirl]

Here is my shite Schwab chart of VIX...sitting at middle BBand....

[Cobra]

nothing to say, the bias still is up.

[Medman]

Any thoughts about holding AAPL overnight?

[BullBear52x]

XIV LL and LH some sees as bull flag

VIX macd histo still positive, so , the volatility will continue its craziness.

VIX CCI 144 big picture, you got the picture, if not, a trade back above -100 favors bears, low under -100 favor bulls. reversal of reversal of reversal and more reversal to come.

[essessme]

TLT...This concerns me for the bull case...

Thoughts anyone??

TG all I have is the same feeling I had back in '10 but at the time thought 4% on the 10y was the buy pt now I get have the feel that 2% is the new 4% although my chart shows a little room left for yield to climb if the Fed wants new stock highs...

[Al_Dente]

I'm taking a breather trying to figure out this market.

skitt GL2u

[TraderGirl]

Ok, we have higher high in SPX, SPY and /ES...so even if we get a pullback here, we will go up until Dow makes a higher high...

[TraderGirl]

TLT...This concerns me for the bull case...

Thoughts anyone??

TG all I have is the same feeling I had back in '10 but at the time thought 4% on the 10y was the buy pt now I get have the feel that 2% is the new 4% although my chart shows a little room left for yield to climb if the Fed wants new stock highs...

Thanks...

[taggard]

ATTENTION
What happened to all the bear-stops just above the new hi?
They should have been taken out and squeezed
Six cents above the old hi…….and no bear stops??
I don’t get it (trap?.... just reloading?....)
Anyone?

9:00 AM 163317 235024 398341 41738 67201 108939 205055 302225 507280 1.47
9:30 AM 296689 380425 677114 110415 116011 226426 407104 496436 903540 1.22
10:00 AM 398973 461296 860269 145586 186777 332363 544559 648073 1192632 1.19
10:30 AM 487702 538246 1025948 160572 206255 366827 648274 744501 1392775 1.15
11:00 AM 549661 578799 1128460 172604 218453 391057 722265 797252 1519517 1.10
11:30 AM 600193 625197 1225390 190978 254073 445051 791171 879270 1670441 1.11
12:00 PM 694196 662692 1356888 215383 270292 485675 909579 932984 1842563 1.03
12:30 PM 749250 705022 1454272 232209 288134 520343 981459 993156 1974615 1.01
1:00 PM 815476 801048 1616524 251105 306322 557427 1066581 1107370 2173951 1.04
1:30 PM 886330 850528 1736858 285840 328689 614529 1172170 1179217 2351387 1.01
2:00 PM 965852 928744 1894596 399160 379728 778888 1365012 1308472 2673484 0.96
2:30 PM
3:00 PM

you may or may not get your wish re stops--but you have been getting it all day as you can see above. they are covering up at the wrong places and times as evidenced by the put call stuff which is a very very rough model for pros thinking. We are quite call heavy in qqq feb (the usual date not talking weeklies). The best outcome (to me) would be for the put call to continue to punch up during bad days and not go down to far on up days. This creates a market where the shorts (hedges etc) provide the stair case to the stars

there eventually comes a point where things are so out of whack that p/c and hedging doesn't make any difference. and then you have the long goodbuy finally.

another consideration is that we have not hit the 20 ema daily on spx--as a rule in these gung ho situations you can start the clock only after the last hit of the daily 20 ema--if we were to just skyrocket from here (please) then that would be even more anomalous or bogus and would led weight to the "dudes is all like 2000 or what".

a note to the beginner with P bars. note that they are "somewhat predictive and have zero time line" which means extreme caution if you are trying to trade off them. often when starting out you look for lots of indicators--yet pros with experience often just watch price action. neither is the only way and whatever works for you. but at least be open to the idea less is more--which you can see very clearly watching what cobra is putting out. at the start it's very hard to see how very simple ideas work and very easy to see less accurate complex ones. but again whatever works.

finally its worth just saying--a lot of people are in effect looking up. looking at the open interest in the spx options around the money (eg at and just in and just out) show an epic imbalance of calls due in feb--despite the month and the period of exp often being "bad". hedging looks very short term these days (eg add the stuff above to this last sentence)